Strong winds Monday

[KenH 10]

I predict that during October each year the weather will be wet and windy. Sometimes this can turn into "very wet and very windy" in which case it is a good idea to put a coat on.

 

But the real question we should all ask ourselves is "will the worst storm in history kill the deadly false widow spider infestations?".

[phawley 10]

Well I'm a pallbearer at a funeral at Grenoside Crematorium on Monday, not looking forward to it now in more ways than one.

[Phanerothyme 12]

Yes it is, you know like the hurricane that was laughed off all those years ago, until it hit.

 

You know that Michael Fish has been widely misquoted and was talking about Florida, as a listener had written in with a question? If you look at the weather forecast for that day in 87, you'll see that storms were widely forecast across the country.

 

Fish went on to warn viewers in the UK to "batten down the hatches", saying it would be "very windy" across the south of England, but predicted that the storm would move further south along the English Channel and the British mainland would escape the worst effects. The remainder of his warning is frequently left out of re-runs, which only adds to the public's misconception of that day's forecasting. His analysis has been defended by weather experts. In particular, the lack of a weather ship in the Southwest Approaches, due to Met Office cutbacks,meant the only manner of tracking the storm was by using satellite data, as automatic buoys had not been deployed at the time.

 

Also consider your cognitive bias. You remember when they get it wrong and forget when they get it right.

 

Compared to only 30 years ago, weather forecast accuracy has increased immensely. Long term weather forecasts will always be unpredictable because they're dealing with a chaotic system.

[Bypassblade 10]

You know that Michael Fish has been widely misquoted and was talking about Florida, as a listener had written in with a question? If you look at the weather forecast for that day in 87, you'll see that storms were widely forecast across the country.

 

 

Well funnily enough I knew nothing till we got home, I was in Spain but he's squirmed ever since. Every replay I've seen though does show him saying "we've received a report from a lady saying a hurricane, is due to come in", let me assure you now this will not happen.

[sheff1johnny 10]

I think the weather forecasters cover their backs and say worse case scenario, so no one can say you didn't warn us. Papers over exagerate as weather stories increase their circulation by around ten percent. In truth it probably won't be a very nice day, but maybe not as bad as being suggested. Guess we'll have to wait and see

[AndrewC 293]

Yes it is, you know like the hurricane that was laughed off all those years ago, until it hit.

 

You mean the storm they didn't laugh off, they identified it but didn't account for the possibility of it moving further north than they thought it would? The storm from which they learned numerous lessons with regards to weather warnings etc.? The storm which was some 26 years ago?

 

Oh yeah, that one storm actually does make you entirely right about weathermen always getting it wrong.

 

Also consider your cognitive bias. You remember when they get it wrong and forget when they get it right.

 

Compared to only 30 years ago, weather forecast accuracy has increased immensely. Long term weather forecasts will always be unpredictable because they're dealing with a chaotic system.

 

Exactly. Also, consider the area they are forecasting for. Many people bemoan weathermen for saying 'there will be showers across South Yorkshire' but then it doesn't rain in their 1sq mile of the county. Weathermen are trying to predict something that is incredibly complicated (and only getting more complicated) and then have an even harder task of reporting their predictions to a largely cynical audience who take their advice as gospel and kick up a fuss or whinge and moan at every minute 'mistake'.

 

---------- Post added 26-10-2013 at 15:41 ----------

 

"we've received a report from a lady saying a hurricane, is due to come in", let me assure you now this will not happen.

 

Ironic that you should, like in the media and in culture, repeat that quote again whilst ignoring the larger context that it came in, because that's exactly how people like you view weather reports I think; hear the word 'rain', plan for a torrential downpour, then complain when it doesn't come.

[Bypassblade 10]

You mean the storm they didn't laugh off, they identified it but didn't account for the possibility of it moving further north than they thought it would? The storm from which they learned numerous lessons with regards to weather warnings etc.? The storm which was some 26 years ago?

 

Oh yeah, that one storm actually does make you entirely right about weathermen always getting it wrong.

 

If you want to to put down all the times the weathermen have been wrong, I'd fill the bloody forum.

 

Tell me how many time they got the snow right last year then clever clogs, because twice when we were caught out by heavy snow it was not forecast.

[frank ryan 10]

the storm has now hit sharrow - trees are blown over, roofs are off and a girl in a gingham dress holding a ratty little dog has been carried away.

[AndrewC 293]

If you want to to put down all the times the weathermen have been wrong, I'd fill the bloody forum.

 

Tell me how many time they got the snow right last year then clever clogs, because twice when we were caught out by heavy snow it was not forecast.

 

I can't think of any time over the last few winters when snow has hit without the weather forecasts making me aware of it being a possibility. I think there may have been one day this last winter it was heavier than they expected and the council got a bit caught out in terms of gritting etc.

 

But you really can't see the real point, can you? The point is the cynical nature people like you view weather forecasts with - you expect it to be exact down to the second it will happen, down to the millimetres of water that will fall, down to the exact square metre it will fall in - just take it as it is; general advice.

 

As for examples, well, if you can find me some evidence showing examples of times in the last few years when heavy snow has fallen and evidence that none was forecast in the weather before hand, then I'll see what you can do. Suffice to say I imagine for every 1 forecast that is wrong, they get a hundred right. Like Phanerothyme, you just ignore those.

[Bypassblade 10]

I can't think of any time over the last few winters when snow has hit without the weather forecasts making me aware of it being a possibility. I think there may have been one day this last winter it was heavier than they expected and the council got a bit caught out in terms of gritting etc.

 

But you really can't see the real point, can you? The point is the cynical nature people like you view weather forecasts with - you expect it to be exact down to the second it will happen, down to the millimetres of water that will fall, down to the exact square metre it will fall in - just take it as it is; general advice.

 

As for examples, well, if you can find me some evidence showing examples of times in the last few years when heavy snow has fallen and evidence that none was forecast in the weather before hand, then I'll see what you can do. Suffice to say I imagine for every 1 forecast that is wrong, they get a hundred right. Like Phanerothyme, you just ignore those.

 

No we don't it's just folk like yourself probably nice & intelligent, seem to think they're infallible.

 

Pete

[francypants 441]

Well I'm a pallbearer at a funeral at Grenoside Crematorium on Monday, not looking forward to it now in more ways than one.

 

Best of luck for Monday. It's windy up there on a normal day.

[AndrewC 293]

No we don't it's just folk like yourself probably nice & intelligent, seem to think they're infallible.

 

Pete

 

I don't think they are infallible. That you think I do means everything I've posted has clearly been lost somewhere in translation. What has being 'nice & intelligent' got to do with anything?

 

If I was 'intelligent', would that be a bad thing?!