Apophis 2026 2.7% apocalypse

[Tony 10]

Apophis is an asteroid. It passed Earth at the weekend and it turned out to be bigger than previously thought. It's about half a mile across.

 

When it returns in 2029 it will be much closer, an estimated 18,000 miles away. That's less than the circumference of the Earth, but there is a 2.7% chance that it will collide with Earth.

 

If it collides, the human race may be wiped out.

 

Makes you think, doesn't it?

[Guest sibon]

Apophis is an asteroid. It passed Earth at the weekend and it turned out to be bigger than previously thought. It's about half a mile across.

 

When it returns in 2029 it will be much closer, an estimated 18,000 miles away. That's less than the circumference of the Earth, but there is a 2.7% chance that it will collide with Earth.

 

If it collides, the human race may be wiped out.

 

Makes you think, doesn't it?

 

Will it return to us, or will we return to it?

 

Just asking:)

[Tony 10]

50% likelihood of a bit of both. in fairness the apocalyptic chances are probably diminished once we understand impact event... assuming that the 2.7% is constant.

 

Now you've got me wondering about the proximity (or otherwise) of a 2045 pass

[Tomm06 12]

We only had a few days till there wasn't another apocalyptic event flying around lol.

 

It's too far to worry about yet...for me anyways.

[Staffy23 10]

Im not worried.

If its going to collied with us then Bruce Willis will sort it.

[Guest sibon]

 

Now you've got me wondering about the proximity (or otherwise) of a 2045 pass

 

I'll be needing an ear trumpet to hear that one, I think.

 

The calculation for the probability of collision must be complex. Two independently orbiting objects and a variable gravitational effect. Well past my maths.

[Tony 10]

Maths? I got my predictions from the cave paintings at Wharncliffe Side.

[andygardener 10]

Get that Proffessor who fired a fancy shopping trolley at Mars never to be heard of again on the job, he'll sort it. Just fill the next one with bricks and aim it at the asteroid.

[mattrialeo 10]

This is barely worth mentioning as a potential hazard as there are around 10 other asteroids with a greater probability of hitting earth. Don't worry by the way, the percentages of any of these asteroids hitting are extremely low

[Tony 10]

That's reassuring.

[Guest sibon]

You should check what the chances are of us hitting the asteroid, before you relax totally:)

[barleycorn 10]

Apophis is an asteroid. It passed Earth at the weekend and it turned out to be bigger than previously thought. It's about half a mile across.

 

When it returns in 2029 it will be much closer, an estimated 18,000 miles away. That's less than the circumference of the Earth, but there is a 2.7% chance that it will collide with Earth.

 

If it collides, the human race may be wiped out.

 

Makes you think, doesn't it?

 

I don't know where you're getting your data but most of it is wrong and the bits that are right are 8 years out of date.

 

The observations that predicted a 2.7% chance of striking the Earth in 2029 were made in 2004, at this time its size was estimated to be 270m. Later, more accurate predictions knocked the likelihood of a collision in 2029 to 0.004%.

The resent pass has allowed for more accurate determination of its size to 325m, that's a quarter of a mile not half a mile. In 2029 it will pass 36,000Km away, not 18,000.

The impact risk in 2036 is a mere 1 in 7,143,000.

 

http://news.discovery.com/space/asteroids-meteors-meteorites/asteroid-apophis-just-got-supersized-130109.htm

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Science/Herschel_intercepts_asteroid_Apophis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#2013_refinement

 

jb