The Silent Issue, the oil crises threatening us all.

[Phanerothyme 12]

Originally posted by Jamie

Hi Wayne,

 

I don't want to see the human race extinct, but if that is what occurs, I think that is what we deserve (as a collective species).

 

...The human race is not the centre of the universe, no more than the sun is the centre of the solar system,- Jamie.

Deserve extinction Jamie? We are only doing what comes naturally to us. Oil slicks and toxic waste dumps are just as much a product of 'nature' as algal blooms and volcanic cataclysms. It is totally wrong to see ourselves as apart from or separate from the rest of it. If we deserve extinction, so does everything else.

 

We exploit resources to live, like any organism.

 

What is at the centre of the solar system if not the sun?

 

Also, I don't actually think for a moment that the human race faces extinction,even by it's own hand.

[Jamie 10]

Originally posted by Phanerothyme

Deserve extinction Jamie? We are only doing what comes naturally to us. Oil slicks and toxic waste dumps are just as much a product of 'nature' as algal blooms and volcanic cataclysms. It is totally wrong to see ourselves as apart from or separate from the rest of it. If we deserve extinction, so does everything else.

 

Yes, and death and extinction are also equally valid (and important) parts the natural process of life and evolution, it's nothing personal, or emotive.

 

The 'deserve' part of it is totally impersonal.

 

Of course, I don't think running out of oil will lead to extinction, but I do think we are dangerously out of control right now, with no sign of things improving.

 

I believe 'mother nature' will always have the last laff, and we will either change or things will continue to get worse.

 

Originally posted by Phanerothyme

We exploit resources to live, like any organism.

 

Yes.

 

Originally posted by Phanerothyme

What is at the centre of the solar system if not the sun?

 

Freudian slip (sp?) ... ?

 

Originally posted by Phanerothyme

Also, I don't actually think for a moment that the human race faces extinction,even by it's own hand.

 

I agree.

[barny_100 10]

Originally posted by wayne72

Would you really like to see humans extinct? for all the bad things we've done, theres as many good things. Now i'm not stupid, we do have to get the population reduced too at least to 2 Billion.

 

Is it just me that finds this rather sinister? Is this a genuine thought that 4 billion people should be disposed of just to comply with some arbitrary view that there are too many humans!

 

Seems there are various groups with ideas like this: http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2005/09/visualize-industrial-collapse.html

 

And about the oil I read this today which is quite relevant and interesting: http://timworstall.typepad.com/timworstall/2005/09/oh_dear_georges.html

[Jamie 10]

Originally posted by barny_100

Is it just me that finds this rather sinister? Is this a genuine thought that 4 billion people should be disposed of just to comply with some arbitrary view that there are too many humans!

 

I think the preference would be to persuade couples to have less (or no) children, and wait for the population to come down, rather than just slaughtering the 4 billion.

[back2basics 10]

We cannot afford to loose a few billion people, who will pay for our pensions!?

 

Peak oil is very real. You know it real when The New York times has adverts from the big oil companies saying it's real,or when Time magazine runs a very large article on it.

 

Peak oil is not a theory of oil running out. It's a theory of production being less than demand. And that's not just a case of the oil that is around. Oil has to go through a refinery process. At the moment this is what the U.S is struggling with, it does not have the refineries it needs to deal with the demand. So price pressure are two fold, the international market value of oil and the local market, post refineries.

 

The Time article is about the very real issues of Saudi oil. Seems they have been overplaying the amount of oil they have, as have many. So we are left with oil that's harder and harder to get at, so the cost will be higher and higher.

 

Who will suffer? Rich western countries or third world and developing countries? It's pretty clear who will suffer most and first. Cannot see your average African going out and buying a LPG or Hybrid. If people suffer, we will be the last. Again developing nations are faced with being held back, so they cannot catch up.

[Cliff Clavin 10]

First an appology to Jamie, sorry if I came over a bit strong at you, but since i've started getting into this subject I find myself becoming more and more concerned about what we are about to face and lots of people dont really understand the full consequence of Peak Oil.

 

It is true Oil will never run out, why? because we'll run out of the resource to get too it, and that resource is Cheap Oil.

 

When I say reduce the popuation, I dont mean a mass cull, no I mean a productive selective breeding programme, and these are strong words because I believe I dont fit the credentials that I would like to see. You see instead of paying poor people too have kids why not pay them not too have kids, i'm sure this will help.

 

Has for us being parasites, maybe all life forms are parasites but one thing is that any species that overshoots on the population front withers and dies, The same will go for us, if it is not too late already; we may reduce the suffering by accepting the facts that we need to take a step backwards.

 

Why is Oil so important too our society, well it used for nearly everything our modern society flurishes on, from Asphalt for roads, to fuel for cars and plastics for whatever and enegy too extract Oil.

 

It maybe inevitable that every species should become extinct in time but why should we hurry things along, yes I used to think about my bank balance alot until about 3 weeks ago when this issue was thrust upon me, now my whole life as changed as I am trying to make awareness to what we face. Awareness is the only way the goverments will act and we can only make a difference if we can become united to change our way of lives and that means the opposite of growth!

[Fareast 10]

A good few posters on the subject of Oil [ and other important international subjects too] seem to throw the words , "We" and ,"governments " around in a very simplistic fashion .

You would think that Oil was somehow produced by one group , from one source , that the demand and supply were constant ........etc......

Surely the , "problem " , if it exists is much more complicated than that !

First of all there is no one , "We" : different governments with different policies , yes , but no single one ; to make things even more complicated , governments change pretty regularly and what is X policy one year is Y policy in 5 years time .

We don't really know how well technology will develop in the near or medium future and therefore how easy or difficult it will be to access oil from hitherto inaccessible places . I read somewhere that in the east of Russia , for example and in parts of China , there are huge oil fields . "Necessity " might well prove the mother of invention , in a case like this .

It goes without saying that , again , we don't really know how the development of alternative sources of energy will be used . Already countries like France use nuclear power in quite a big way .

Who knows , either , what the political situation will be like in the Middle East , for example ? Or anywhere else , in 20 years time ? Shall we rely on , 'the experts " to tell us !

Can we persuade people to live on less energy ? Can we expect people , politically , to accept nuclear power ? [ After all , they've , "accepted " the deaths of thousands of miners in the extraction of energy ].

To talk about , " we" should do this or , "we " should do that or , "governments should do this or that " , in this context seems utterly pointless , to me .

As usual , the Human Race will bumble and stumble along , finding solutions along the way , either through necessity or good fortune or when it's almost too late . There will be no , 'Grand Solution ' !

This type of pseudo- discussion is always reminiscent of the people who said London would be buried under X feet of horse manure , if the amount of horse traffic increased at the [then] present rate .

[Phanerothyme 12]

Originally posted by Fareast

This type of pseudo- discussion is always reminiscent of the people who said London would be buried under X feet of horse manure , if the amount of horse traffic increased at the [then] present rate .

Well, it would have. Luckily the invention of the internal combustion engine changed horse manure for carbon monoxide, which doesn't require constant shovelling out of the way.

 

Even if world oil reserves were doubled, today (instead of heavily overestimated in order to maximise profits) there still isn't enough to support the growing demand.

 

Given our dependence on oil for everything, not least as fuel, but also as a crucial resource for every industrial concern, the obvious fact that the price will carry on going up, should be a matter of urgent consideration.

 

I am not convinced that Wayne's total cataclysm scenario will happen, however. But that does not mean that we should not demonstrate to our governments and rulers that not only are we aware of the problem, but we are expecting them to shelve their short-termism and tackle the problem internationally.

 

I think the overriding message is that oil is to valuable to burn for energy.

[Cliff Clavin 10]

Originally posted by Phanerothyme

 

I am not convinced that Wayne's total cataclysm scenario will happen, however. But that does not mean that we should not demonstrate to our governments and rulers that not only are we aware of the problem, but we are expecting them to shelve their short-termism and tackle the problem internationally.

 

 

Cheers Phanerothyme you managed to bring a smile to my face there mate, with the total cataclysm scenerio, somthing which I was trying too avoid, unfortunately the more I look into things the worse the scenario looks, and all I want to know is why are'nt there preparations afoot.

 

 

You see our whole society is totally Oil dependent, to the point that without it we will be in deep s*it and so will alot of other species as we battle too survive or feed ourselves.

 

Is it about 2 Billion people go hungry now, can you imagine when 5 Billion people begin to go hungry, this extra 3 Billion are used to not going hungry either so that will cause even bigger problems.

 

I keep hearing about how Russia as this much oil and China as that much, well the sad fact is Russia does have this much oil, the trouble is that they peaked in production in 1987 and this then brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union within a couple of years, now as a super power can you see them giving up there oil whats left for us, I doubt it. Resource wars have already begun and will get bigger.

 

Zimbabwe got away wuth the attrocities of what they did to white farm workers, because at the time they were supplying all their oil over to the western countries, they have now hit peak and their decline is rather rapid.

 

Why is oil so valuable, mainly because its energy ratio is so high, up until around the 60's it was a net value of around 50 for 1, recently it has dropped to 35 to 1 due to it getting harder too extract. Also in the civilised world Oil helps do the work of around 50 men on adverage, thus the very reason why we have been able to reach 6 Billion population.

 

Now i've tried to remain optimistic throughout all my research, but I am begining to wonder can we survive? now that we've become so dependent on oil? and my only truthfull answer is maybe, and that maybe is if we can start to make the move now gradually, but unfortunately unless the goverments act and explain whats at stake and what we must do then it will just come to point were its too late. You see not enough people or going to listen to me, they are just gonna pass me off as a crackpot unless someone in respectable authorite decides to stand up and come clean. So you see my main aim is to keep banging on about this thing until that happens or until the lights and electric finally goes out, then it will be every man and women for themselves, and even though i'm a bit more prepared I still dont give my chances of getting too a pension good odds

[Phanerothyme 12]

Wayne. Glad I made you smile there.

 

Don't forget, it is also possible to make oil subsitutes from biomass.

 

Of course we'd have to stop burning the stuff too. And soon.

 

The polar icecap is in a state of accelerated decline - and global warming is identified as the main culprit in a recent US government Scientific Survey.

 

But I firmly believe in the self regulation theory of the earth as organism. If any organism created CO2 like we do, they too could tip the complex system of our climate from one chaotic configuration into another.

 

There's not necessarily an intent here, the variation in climate is completely unpredictable, but rapid and climactic global climatic change has happened before.

 

That is one of the great future imponderables, but if we stop burning oil and start making and using making it instead, we would see an overall reduction in CO2 emissions, and a possible cooling of the planet?

 

Electrical energy, lifeblood of a technological society will change into a more distributed and varied method of production, and the promise of fusion power is making great strides towards an 'energy surplus' tokamak (magnetic containment) reactor (being built in france, ready 2016). The Cardache reactor will enable fusion scientists to research and design the first commercial fusion reactor.

 

Fuel is hydrogen isotopes and the waste output is helium.

 

It's costing billions. But the cost is being shared internationally between organisations from the EU, the US, Japan, Russia, China and South Korea.

 

Almost like they were taking the energy crisis seriously. Maybe.

 

I think your pessimism is unfounded. Great Changes are Afoot, but when has it ever been otherwise?

[Trickle 10]

Cheap electric cars already have better capabilities than cars in the '40-50s and technically there is nothing stopping us building nuclear power stations once public fear of losing the motor car exceeds the fear of nuclear accidents

 

Those links predicting the collapse of civilisation as we know clearly isnt going to happen.

[Jamie 10]

Originally posted by wayne72

First an appology to Jamie, sorry if I came over a bit strong at you, but since i've started getting into this subject I find myself becoming more and more concerned about what we are about to face and lots of people dont really understand the full consequence of Peak Oil.

 

No need to appologise Wayne, and I didn't feel you were strong on me. Also, I was being a bit provocative in any case!!

 

Originally posted by wayne72

Has for us being parasites, maybe all life forms are parasites but one thing is that any species that overshoots on the population front withers and dies, The same will go for us, if it is not too late already; we may reduce the suffering by accepting the facts that we need to take a step backwards.

 

I think balance is everything, too much of anything is a bad thing, as is too little.

 

I think the human race is well out of control. We're a collection of 6 billion individuals, all living our own lives and trying to get what we want and avoid what we don't, as individuals. We don't act for the greater good, we act for the individual good, and to me, that seems bound to create unstability.

 

Of course, we're manipulated be corporations / businesses who want us to spend our money on their product / service. Sure, money does make the world go round, it just makes it go round a little too fast.

 

It all makes for unstability, but we'll just have to see where it all goes, hehehe.

 

Take care,

Jamie.