Is Sheffield property market moving again?

[Phylis 10]

2 house sales (You assume they went through) doesn't make a market in England's 4/5th biggest city does it? Sure it can be anecdotal evidence but it's not proof of anything just as a couple of house not selling isn't the other way.

 

The lack of properties for sale is having a positive effect on prices.

 

Have a drive around and see how many for sale boards you see and how many of these have sold plastered over them.

[barny_100 10]

The lack of properties for sale is having a positive effect on prices.

 

Have a drive around and see how many for sale boards you see and how many of these have sold plastered over them.

 

If that's the case it's quite different from being proof "the market is moving again". I take that to mean volumes are up and in that scenario prices probably wouldn't rise as supply would be meeting or exceeding demand (With mortgage availability being factored into "demand").

 

This seems like a relatively small number of buyers pushing up the prices of an even smaller number of houses?

 

EDIT: Also lets not forget a likely reason for the low number of houses for sale, with interest rates at 0.5% there are people who have lost a wage or a % of their income in the recession who can still cover their mortgage purely because the cost of it has crashed. Every % the BoE puts on the rates over the coming months/years will push people over a red line at which they are forced to sell up before getting into arrears they can't come back from. It seems a very realistic scenario IMO anyway...

Edited January 12, 2010 by barny_100

[oatesortho@a 10]

If that's the case it's quite different from being proof "the market is moving again". I take that to mean volumes are up and in that scenario prices probably wouldn't rise as supply would be meeting or exceeding demand (With mortgage availability being factored into "demand").

 

This seems like a relatively small number of buyers pushing up the prices of an even smaller number of houses?

 

 

Take a look on Rightmove at houses between the 250 - 400K mark within 1 mile of Dore with the 'sold' box checked. There are about 10 houses that only listed in November / December showing SSTC. If you have the propertybee add on and use firefox as your browser you can view how long each property has been up for sale and any price changes.

 

The two examples I gave have definately sold. The £250K one in Dore had 8 proceedable (mortgage / cash in place) offers on it and no property to sell before it went to sealed bids.

 

Prices are being increased too - again Propertybee shows you houses that have increased the asking price since November / December.

Edited January 12, 2010 by oatesortho@a

[Dimitri 11 10]

EDIT: Also lets not forget a likely reason for the low number of houses for sale, with interest rates at 0.5% there are people who have lost a wage or a % of their income in the recession who can still cover their mortgage purely because the cost of it has crashed. Every % the BoE puts on the rates over the coming months/years will push people over a red line at which they are forced to sell up before getting into arrears they can't come back from. It seems a very realistic scenario IMO anyway...

 

Inflation officially began it's journey to the moon today with the 'biggest monthly rise in the annual index since records began'. The recent VAT increase did not have any part to play in these figures as they are for December and do not include January. Could well be that interest rates rise in the very near future and coupled with the tax rises/spending cuts that are imminent the House Price Crash could be back on before the barbeques are rolled out .

[TediRuckspin 10]

Bear market rallys and the like do happen (more often in the share market), although there seem to be some solid fundamentals behind the (slow) house price increases such as lack of supply, increased demmand etc etc.

 

Don't try and be too clever, buy your house when it represents good value for money (to you) and makes sense, then you'll not regret it.

 

Confucius say those who try to catch hot rock get fingers burnt.

[DavidRa 10]

does VAT apply to new builds, it doesn't apply to the 2nd hand market...

Correct new homes are exempt from VAT and if paid can be reclaimed.

[Bonjon 10]

2 house sales (You assume they went through) doesn't make a market in England's 4/5th biggest city does it? Sure it can be anecdotal evidence but it's not proof of anything just as a couple of house not selling isn't the other way.

 

I'm guessing your looking to buy and a bit peeved that you missed out on the cheaper prices??

[barny_100 10]

I'm guessing your looking to buy and a bit peeved that you missed out on the cheaper prices??

 

Nope, not at any point in the near future I would think. Not sure how you guessed that anyway seeing as I was just pointing out that 2 houses don't make a market. It wasn't a view either way just one about making statements based on humorously slim data.

 

You don't have to have any sort of interest for or against something to try and make reasoned judgements on a subject.

[Akrasia 10]

It wasn't a view either way just one about making statements based on humorously slim data.

 

Ironic, then, that he took the slim data of your comments and concluded that you're a prospective buyer who thinks that they've missed the bottom.

[Dimitri 11 10]

Bear market rallys and the like do happen (more often in the share market), although there seem to be some solid fundamentals behind the (slow) house price increases such as lack of supply, increased demmand etc etc.

 

The lack of supply can largely be put down to the low interest rate (the lowest interest rate in the history of the UK). The low rate means that people on tracker mortgages are paying a lot less than they would if they moved as newer mortgage deals are generally more expensive. Who would move house faced with that scenario? It's a scenario that looks like it will soon be ending though.

 

There is no increased demand. More houses are being sold now than compared to 18 months ago but that's because sales were at an all time low 18 months ago. Sales figures now are still something like a 1/3 off their historical average.

 

Don't try and be too clever, buy your house when it represents good value for money (to you) and makes sense, then you'll not regret it.

Confucius say those who try to catch hot rock get fingers burnt.

 

Only fools rush in etc. House prices will do well to hold stable in the next 6-12 months, let alone rise. We are definitely looking at mass redundancies in the public sector and tax rises in that period and probably looking at higher interest rates. All 3 could even occur in the next 4-5 months.

Edited January 20, 2010 by Dimitri 11

[TediRuckspin 10]

The lack of supply can largely be put down to the low interest rate (the lowest interest rate in the history of the UK). The low rate means that people on tracker mortgages are paying a lot less than they would if they moved as newer mortgage deals are generally more expensive. Who would move house faced with that scenario? It's a scenario that looks like it will soon be ending though.

 

There is no increased demand. More houses are being sold now than compared to 18 months ago but that's because sales were at an all time low 18 months ago. Sales figures now are still something like a 1/3 off their historical average.

 

 

 

Only fools rush in etc. House prices will do well to hold stable in the next 6-12 months, let alone rise. We are definitely looking at mass redundancies in the public sector and tax rises in that period and probably looking at higher interest rates. All 3 could even occur in the next 4-5 months.

 

 

Hi Dimitri,

 

Lack of supply comes down to people being unable to sell as they are at high loan to values on their house and do not have the deposit for the next step in the ladder, or first time buyers being basically wiped from the market due to inavailability of very high LTV products. High LTV pruducts are coming back on the market and rates are reducing on them (this is a large part of the recovery).

 

That increase in demmand to the trough is exactly what I'm talking about?

 

Ok ok, I can't say for sure what prices are going to do and neither can you (otherwise you'd be out there shorting REIT's right now and "making millions").

What I can tell you is there not going to dip a huge amount more (if they do) and there are some genuinely good value properties to be had atm.

 

GL to all anyway, get good value for money and make sure your completely happy in whatever you do.

Edited January 21, 2010 by TediRuckspin

[Akrasia 10]

Ok ok, I can't say for sure what prices are going to do and neither can you (otherwise you'd be out there shorting REIT's right now and "making millions"). What I can tell you is there not going to dip a huge amount more (if they do) and there are some genuinely good value properties to be had atm.

 

GL to all anyway, get good value for money and make sure your completely happy in whatever you do.

 

I'm still expecting house prices to fall significantly. There are big problems for the economy ahead, and houses are still over-priced by historical measures. However, my wife and I are about to buy our first house.

 

As you say, no one knows for sure where house prices are going.

 

If we buy now, then it won't matter to us where they go: we'll have a house that we can live in for the rest of our lives. Worst-case scenario is that we over-pay.

 

If we don't buy now, then we'll probably be able to buy for less later, but there's a small possibility that prices will rise and we'll be priced out of the market. Worst-case scenario is that we never manage to buy, and end up paying rent in retirement on meagre pensions.

 

So we expect the house we're buying to fall in value, at least in the short term, but it still makes sense for us to buy. However much we over-pay by is just the price of insuring ourselves against price rises.

 

What I'm getting at is this: You're right. Different people's circumstances vary. Whether it makes sense to try to second-guess the market will depend on things like your attitude to risk, how flexible you can be when you buy, and whether prices are just within or outside your reach at the moment. It isn't just about trying to get the lowest price possible.