House Prices Up 2% in Jan, End Of Recession?

[L00b 441]

Personally I think if you are a first time buyer (or up-sizing significantly) you need your head examining if you buy now!

 

Not the time to buy, give it a year or 2.

 

While I agree with you, I wouldn't be so categorical: as usual, it's all down to circumstances.

 

If hyperinflation kicks in in earnest, or there's a run on the banks in the near future, then anyone with a sizeable enough deposit would be best advised to buy ASAP, before the deposit amount loses too much value, relative to the amount of equity it represents/buys.

 

It's 'ifs' of course, but just to demonstrate that what it is OK now for some (sit & await the market bottom) might not be so in the next 6 months.

[Tomataheeed 10]

While I agree with you, I wouldn't be so categorical: as usual, it's all down to circumstances.

 

If hyperinflation kicks in in earnest, or there's a run on the banks in the near future, then anyone with a sizeable enough deposit would be best advised to buy ASAP, before the deposit amount loses too much value, relative to the amount of equity it represents/buys.

 

It's 'ifs' of course, but just to demonstrate that what it is OK now for some (sit & await the market bottom) might not be so in the next 6 months.

 

This is the thing....I think house prices could well go down another 10-20% before they ( slowly) start going back up a bit, but other places to put your money could well be even worse than bricks and mortar. We don't need high inflation to make people jump for the property option. People have been badly bitten with stock market losses on unfathomable financial products....people want to put their money in something they understand.

[Tomataheeed 10]

what I don't understand is why government isn't buying up houses and half completed building sites at low prices to provide social housing. We need more social housing, they could buy at low prices and it would keep a lot of construction workers in a job paying tax. It would also help halt the fall in prices which could also be a good thing for the economy.

[Tricky 10]

what I don't understand is why government isn't buying up houses and half completed building sites at low prices to provide social housing. We need more social housing, they could buy at low prices and it would keep a lot of construction workers in a job paying tax. It would also help halt the fall in prices which could also be a good thing for the economy.

 

Why not indeed? It's a great question because it points out a lot of issues.

 

Do the Govt have any money? No

Is it in the Govts interest to accept that the house building industry has come to a juddering halt and won't progress in the forseeable? No

Are we in a V shaped recession? No

Is the Govt pinning all its hopes on reflating the credit boom? Yes

Will that work? No

 

I could go on...

[Tomataheeed 10]

Why not indeed? It's a great question because it points out a lot of issues.

 

Do the Govt have any money? No

Is it in the Govts interest to accept that the house building industry has come to a juddering halt and won't progress in the forseeable? No

Are we in a V shaped recession? No

Is the Govt pinning all its hopes on reflating the credit boom? Yes

Will that work? No

 

I could go on...

 

The lack of cash is the obvious flaw in my argument but it doesn't explain the billions they continue to throw at banking. They seem to have made a decision to offer no other financial help to good businesses outside banking....yet quite prepared to invest our billions in utterly flawed businesses.

 

I would much rather they spent money increasing social housing stock....which is needed, and which might well be a sensible buy over the longer term. I can't see how we will get anything back from buying up banks.

[rustyfunk 10]

And how do you know what I do? I could be anyone or anything?

 

a troll for example?

[L00b 441]

it doesn't explain the billions they continue to throw at banking. They seem to have made a decision to offer no other financial help to good businesses outside banking....yet quite prepared to invest our billions in utterly flawed businesses.

 

Not like they have a choice. After 10+ years of "mostly credit"-fuelled socio-economic development, how much of the UK, companies, you, me is not in some measure owned (figuratively) by these banks, directly or indirectly?

 

In a nutshell: if the banks go, everything goes (for good, instead of hanging in there by the skin of one's teeth). What loans were not and still would not be considered toxic, would overnight become classified as such. What businesses are somehow still getting a lifeline from banks, would overnight fold and add redundancies. What savings people have kept in such banks, wiped out (GVT "guarantee" notwithstanding: what can they guarantee with, by now?) Etc. The whole enchilada. Not one domino left standing.

 

That's the ball game.

 

And I'm certainly not condoning them saying that, just being "ruthlessly objective" (to quote Tricky ) : I firmly believe that banks should be left to their demise, but just the same, I realise that doing CPR on the banks might just save the country from very much darker times.

Edited February 26, 2009 by L00b

[scottf 21]

Im going to be a first time buyer hopefully in the next 12 months and i think that even with the house prices decreasing i would prefer to put my money into the house rather than inside a bank and the fragile financial system as a whole at the minute!

[Tricky 10]

The lack of cash is the obvious flaw in my argument but it doesn't explain the billions they continue to throw at banking. They seem to have made a decision to offer no other financial help to good businesses outside banking....yet quite prepared to invest our billions in utterly flawed businesses.

 

I would much rather they spent money increasing social housing stock....which is needed, and which might well be a sensible buy over the longer term. I can't see how we will get anything back from buying up banks.

 

They're doing this because it's a political decision. The alternative is to say, 'Sorry we've screwed up and now there's some serious pain. Sorry.' Which is unlikely.

 

So first they're going to bleed us dry and then there'll be even greater serious pain.

 

You're right, we won't receive anything back from buying up insolvent banks

[sweetcorn 10]

Funny that, the advert said "It could be you" but I still havent won the lottery, they also said theres a new millionaire every week, again nothing. Santa never turned out to be true either, lifes full of disappointments, and full of people talking up the market to encourage you to continue to use their failing business. Did you not question them as to why after selling 15 houses yours wasnt one of them? Why they got their first valuation wrong? Why they are valuing it at a 10% drop which is less than the UK average?

 

If you check out the Land Registry's house price index you will see that the UK average has dropped by 15%... however, prices in Sheffield (which they also have an index for) have only dropped by 10%. I find that a lot of the houses which have not sold have been on the market for more than 6 months and although correctly priced at the time, are now worth a lot less... but most vendors appear reluctant to drop their price. We are currently looking to buy in S11, which still seems to be doing well. A lot of the houses we have seen and discounted (due to personal preference) now have sold on them... and we have only been looking for a few weeks.

 

I am not saying that prices are about to start rising anytime sooon, but it does seem to suggest that prices may have stopped falling - in the more desirable areas at least... for now anyway.

 

Interesting you chose the lowest price indicator, heres a clearer picture

 

Peak in House Prices: Latest Price: % Change from Peak:

 

Halifax: ----------------------- Aug07 £199,612 ~ Jan09 £163,966 -17.86% - based on mortgage approvals, mix adjusted

Nationwide: ------------------- Oct07 £186,044 ~ Feb09 £147,746 -20.59% - based on mortgage approvals, mix adjusted

Rightmove: ------------------- May08 £242,500 ~ Feb09 £216,163 -10.86% - initial asking prices

DCLG (formerly ODPM): ----- Jan08 £221,758 ~ Dec08 £195,317 -11.92% completed sales, mix adjusted (experimental)

Land Registry (Monthly): ----- Nov07 £186,009 ~ Dec08 £158,946 -14.55% - sold prices, like for like

Land Registry (Quarterly): --- Q307 £230,474 ~ Q408 £205,372 -10.89% - sold prices, standard average mean, quarterly

[Adamike 10]

I think s11 is just at the back of the curve, I think prices will come down significantly from where they are now. All the arguments I hear for house prices going anywhere but down are from people who have a vested interest in sales and artificially high house prices.

 

Also I dont think the government should buy and help prop up the market, they have said that prices are too high for a long time and the moment the market starts an overdue adjustment they want to stop it. Mr brown says he wants an end to boom and bust but during the boom times everything is just so good.

[saxondale 10]

I think s11 is just at the back of the curve, I think prices will come down significantly from where they are now.

 

 

 

 

your assuming a house is a "free" commodity