House Prices Up 2% in Jan, End Of Recession?

[John 11]

Like it or not recession IS coming to an end but not quite the way the OP thinks it is. Recession only lasts 2 quarters then it becomes a depression if the country's gross domestic product continues to decline.

[barny_100 10]

Like it or not recession IS coming to an end but not quite the way the OP thinks it is. Recession only lasts 2 quarters then it becomes a depression if the country's gross domestic product continues to decline.

 

No, a recession can last any number of quarters, within reason of course. It only officially becomes a recession after 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

 

Just found this:

 

So how can we tell the difference between a recession and a depression?

 

A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.

[Bonjon 10]

Well as I predicted the media are starting to say its the end of the housing crash, next they will be reporting the end in sight for the credit crunch too.

________

Wiki

Edited February 8, 2011 by Bonjon

[Cyclone 10]

Links please, I've not seen a single reputable paper (ie not a tabloid) claiming that it's the end of the housing price crash.

And the only stories I've seen about credit at the moment are bemoaning how the government measures haven't done anything to ease the situation.

[ukdobby 223]

Gimme a rope

[Bonjon 10]

Links please, I've not seen a single reputable paper (ie not a tabloid) claiming that it's the end of the housing price crash.

And the only stories I've seen about credit at the moment are bemoaning how the government measures haven't done anything to ease the situation.

 

It was on Sky news the other day 16th, or 17th iirc.

 

The only people I see scaremongering are the people hoping they dont continue to rise as they missed the boat when the prices were at the lowest they will be!!

[rustyfunk 10]

thats wierd. The only people i see who are talking of upturns are either BTLers, estate agents or mortgage brokers. Even a cursory look at the figures for every part of the wider economy suggest that the fabled green shoots are several years away, with things to get worse before they get better.

 

Sky news is hardly a n unwavering bastion of journalistic integrity either, is it? Its as bad as pravda the BBC for its general pandering to the hard of thinking

 

Each to their own tho...

[Tomataheeed 10]

What about the news today that Northern Rock will make a lot of money available on 90% LTV ? Will this help get more FTBs actually buying?

[Cyclone 10]

It was on Sky news the other day 16th, or 17th iirc.

 

The only people I see scaremongering are the people hoping they dont continue to rise as they missed the boat when the prices were at the lowest they will be!!

 

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/House-Prices-Latest-Housing-Market-Figures-To-Be-Released/Article/200902315224196

 

This? Lots of 'maybe' and 'slight signs' in that article. Reads more like wishful thinking than anything else.

[Dimitri 11 10]

It was on Sky news the other day 16th, or 17th iirc.

 

A small selection of newspaper headlines from the last crash:

 

Friday 11 AUG 1989 - The Times - House prices will not rise until 1991

Sunday 05 NOV 1989 - The Sunday Times - House prices may rise next spring

Friday 17 NOV 1989 - The Times - House prices to recover next year

 

Saturday 06 JAN 1990 - The Times - Recovery forecast for house prices in market awash with loan funds Friday 09 MAR 1990 - The Times - Switch to poll tax 'may lift house prices 15%'

Sunday 14 OCT 1990 - The Sunday Times - House prices bottom out

Sunday 18 NOV 1990 - The Sunday Times - House prices set to take off in spring

Monday 26 NOV 1990 - The Times - Increase in house prices predicted

Saturday 29 DEC 1990 - The Times - Two-point cut in bank rate 'could revive house prices'

Thursday 10 JAN 1991 - The Times - House price rises suggest a recovery

Wednesday 06 MAR 1991 - The Times - House price rises predicted this year

Wednesday 13 MAR 1991 - The Times - House prices predicted to rise 66% over five years

Sunday 29 SEP 1991 - The Sunday Times - House-price surge is on the way, but wait for it

Monday 30 DEC 1991 - The Times - House prices stuck 'till 1993'

Thursday 16 DEC 1993 - The Times - House price boom predicted for 1994

Friday 17 DEC 1993 - The Times - Experts back forecast of big rise in house prices

Sunday 02 JAN 1994 - The Sunday Times - Pundits agree on big rise in house prices

Thursday 07 APR 1994 - The Times - Bank figures reinforce signs of house price recovery

Friday 03 JUN 1994 - The Times - Fears for housing recovery as prices fall

Thursday 20 OCT 1994 - The Times - House prices 'to rise 6%'

Sunday 01 JAN 1995 - The Sunday Times - House prices poised for modest recovery

Wednesday 24 MAY 1995 - The Times - Relief for young in falling house prices

Sunday 31 DEC 1995 - The Sunday Times - House prices set to rise, say lenders It took 6 years but they got there in the end.

 

And then the recovery 1996

1 January

Wednesday 03 JAN 1996 - The Times - House prices remain lower than a year ago

Wednesday 24 JAN 1996 - The Times - The Nobel laureate, his wife and how expectation moves house prices

Sunday 28 JAN 1996 - The Sunday Times - Lenders predict patchy rise in house prices

2 February

FRI 02 FEB 1996 - The Times - House prices rise again

3 March

SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Housing market starts on the road to recovery;Prices likely to rise 2%-4% this year

SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Housing market starts on the road to recovery; A gentle pick-up, not a boom

SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Blair's housing ideas rejected

SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Time to shop around for fee-free mortgage

SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Women trapped by negative equity

4 April

TUE 02 APR 1996 - The Times - House prices rise

SAT 06 APR 1996 - The Times - Rising prices and falling costs boost housing market

FRI 12 APR 1996 - The Times - Debt trap eased by housing price rise

WED 24 APR 1996 - The Times - House prices in Scotland hit by sharp fall in 1995

TUE 30 APR 1996 - The Times - Putting a spin on house prices

5 May

THU 02 MAY 1996 - The Times - House prices rise in 'fragile' market

SUN 05 MAY 1996 - The Sunday Times - House prices continue to rise

THU 09 MAY 1996 - The Times - UBS lifts house price forecast

6 June

SUN 30 JUN 1996 - The Sunday Times - A "mini boom" in house prices

TUE 02 JUL 1996 - The Times - House prices show signs of levelling

SAT 06 JUL 1996 - The Times - Artificially low house prices are luring buyers into a frenzy of competitive bidding

 

 

Look how much ramping there was and some of it SIX YEARS before any recovery happened.

 

The only people I see scaremongering are the people hoping they dont continue to rise as they missed the boat when the prices were at the lowest they will be!!

 

Anybody waiting to buy should keep an eye on things but not delude themselves. If house prices do start to rise and look like they are going to continue rising then so be it, you haven't given any indication this is going to happen though. One story on Sky News, come on man, that's ridiculous!

 

If anybody can tell me why house prices are going to rise i'll gladly listen. I don't want to miss the boat and if it's sailing off i'll jump in and swim after it to get what I can. It's still firmly tied to the pier as far as I can see, in one of those knots that sailors tie where it's almost impossible to undo, LOL. Hyperinflation is my only real worry when it comes to buying a house now or waiting.

Edited February 23, 2009 by Dimitri 11

[Cyclone 10]

What about the news today that Northern Rock will make a lot of money available on 90% LTV ? Will this help get more FTBs actually buying?

 

They haven't said what kind of credit rating they'll require though. It certainly can't hurt, but they won't turn the market around on their own.

[saxondale 10]

dimitri mate, you really need to get a hobby.