How far will Sheffield house prices drop?

[Dimitri 11 10]

It would be interesting to compare the unemployment rates with the rate of fall in house prices. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7789784.stm

 

I'd guess that Birmingham and Cardiff would be experiencing high price falls at the moment. Early days though.

 

When I started on here just under a year ago a few people were predicting that the worst of the downturn would be over by April/Easter '09. It's April first on Wednesday and Easter 2 weeks on Sunday..................

 

Also at that time a 30% fall from peak in national house prices was a fairly radical prediction. Now it's looking like this will have happened before the turkeys are bought and put in the freezer, never mind taken out and put in the oven. Were at 17.3% now and there are 9 LR releases left in '09, it seems only a matter of time.

[Dimitri 11 10]

For what it's worth, and as I've posted before in here or in another similar thread, I keep seeing the same houses FS over the last 6 months, with ever-decreasing asking prices (£10k here, £20k there, month-on-month during the period). They're still not selling, not even STC.

 

We are looking at different price ranges so I am not seeing many 20k falls but I am seeing falls, slowly and little by little. It's slower than I would like but prices are falling and like you say most houses just aren't selling.

 

The figures on the land registry's website only go up to December 08 so far, so I will use this as a base.

 

December 07 - December 08 (so full year drop)

 

Sheffield Price drop = 9.4%

England & Wales Price drop = 13.9%

 

Sheffield sales volume drop = 55.2%

England & Wales sales volume drop = 55.3%

 

This indicates that house prices in Sheffield have recorded a smaller fall than the rest of the country, despite a comparitively similar drop in transactions. So, in theory, the smaller price drop is NOT due to there being less data.

 

 

Although Sheffield's falls are smaller than England & Wales as a whole the gap hasn't got wider for a while, it's even narrowed since December 08. It was 4.5% then and it's 3.9% now and I am sure it was around 5 or 6% less last summer but I can't find how to look at previous statistical releases, can you tell me? While the gap is fairly significant at the moment as it's around 20-25% difference, if it stays this way throughout the crash it will be fairly nominal, a 41% Sheffield fall compared to a national fall of 45%. That's a couple of ifs though.

[L00b 441]

We are looking at different price ranges so I am not seeing many 20k falls but I am seeing falls, slowly and little by little. It's slower than I would like but prices are falling and like you say most houses just aren't selling.

 

I think all houses are pretty much decreasing along the same glide path, actual amounts are just a question of proportionality. Only the EAs dictate how uniform the fall is, in any given area.

 

I'm looking across a very wide price range (150-400) but in a very small geographical area, whereby there's much less houses to track (makes it easier to keep tabs), but a good and representative distribution of successive price reductions across the whole market ('whole market' understood in terms of price levels).

 

E.g. near the £400k mark, I've already seen a couple of £100k aggregate reduction cases since October '08. And still they haven't got a viewer yet, ever.

 

I wonder if our good mate Saxondale has sold his yet?

Edited March 27, 2009 by L00b

[Dimitri 11 10]

I think all houses are pretty much decreasing along the same glide path, actual amounts are just a question of proportionality. Only the EAs dictate how uniform the fall is, in any given area.

 

Yes I agree and this is really what I meant by not seeing many 20k falls, as my price range is lower but as a percentage figure the falls are probably the same. I have seen some 20k or thereabouts (in one reduction as well as altogether) falls and these properties were snapped up pretty quickly.

 

I'm looking across a very wide price range (150-400) but in a very small geographical area, whereby there's much less houses to track (makes it easier to keep tabs), but a good and representative distribution of successive price reductions across the whole market ('whole market' understood in terms of price levels).

 

The price range I am looking at is a lot narrower purely because I can't afford to go higher. I am looking at a smallish area though as it's only a few postcodes. I had decided last year to possibly bid around now but have changed my mind, do you know when you are likely to start putting bids in?

 

E.g. near the £400k mark, I've already seen a couple of £100k aggregate reduction cases since October '08. And still they haven't got a viewer yet, ever.

 

The 'for sale' and 'wanted' sections on here largely reflect the stagnation in the market. I can't remember the last time I saw someone posting to say they were looking for a house to buy and most of the for sale threads go unanswered.

 

I wonder if our good mate Saxondale has sold his yet?

 

I'd hazard a guess at no and if he has sold it's at a greatly reduced price as otherwise he would have posted to let us know. He had taken out a loan to buy another house last time I saw a post from him in this section.

[Cyclone 10]

I've been tracking one house, not far from my own, it's been on the market for about a year now I estimate. It started at 115k, possibly slightly over priced given that the market was already turning down. Now £106,995, still no sign of it moving, which is hardly surprising if it was overpriced at 115 and should in theory now be worth nearly 11k less. You have to wonder if they're really serious about selling...

[Kaye2812 10]

Although Sheffield's falls are smaller than England & Wales as a whole the gap hasn't got wider for a while, it's even narrowed since December 08. It was 4.5% then and it's 3.9% now and I am sure it was around 5 or 6% less last summer but I can't find how to look at previous statistical releases, can you tell me? While the gap is fairly significant at the moment as it's around 20-25% difference, if it stays this way throughout the crash it will be fairly nominal, a 41% Sheffield fall compared to a national fall of 45%. That's a couple of ifs though.

 

The link to the land registry's house prices is below:

 

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/

 

You can choose to look at just one location and get both the house prices and sales volumes. Or compare two locations and look at just house prices.

 

You are right though, the gap between the two has fallen since the middle of last year.

[Dimitri 11 10]

The link to the land registry's house prices is below:

 

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/

 

You can choose to look at just one location and get both the house prices and sales volumes. Or compare two locations and look at just house prices.

 

You are right though, the gap between the two has fallen since the middle of last year.

 

Thanks for that:thumbsup:

[L00b 441]

I had decided last year to possibly bid around now but have changed my mind, do you know when you are likely to start putting bids in?

 

I'm putting one in this morning, as it happens.

 

As usual, it's a question of opportunity: the right house in the right place coming on the market under the 'right circumstances' (strictly manner of speech), at what I perceive to be the right price (for once!)

 

Given the circumstances of the sale (probate, most likely), the house is undoubtedly priced to sell quick, so I'll be putting in at 10% under the asking, leaving a bit of room at the top if needed.

 

This situation is exactly what I was referring to several days or weeks ago, in this thread or another similar, when we were discussing relative discount levels, and saxondale was having a bit of a prod at me and another poster, because we were suggesting a ballpark of -25%: you always have to do your homework, and a lot of it, to recognise those few instances when a 'bigger' discount is unrealistic, particularly when the house is uncharacteristically low-priced for a quick sale (e.g. repo's, or this instance above).

 

And of course, the discount level has to reflect the buyer's particular circumstances too: in our case, already local, no chain, big deposit, mortgage-approved, with completion as fast as the surveyor/solicitor can get moving themselves. I suppose that's where brinksmanship comes in, and I've made sure the EA knows the score. He's old school (wink-wink, nudge-nudge type ) so that should help

Edited March 30, 2009 by L00b

[Tricky 10]

...

However, without any upward pressure on wages, deflation is still more likely in my humble view. Collapse in value of the pound will lead to soaring costs but people will just stop buying stuff. Money will be hoarded, not spent and the long dismal spiral will continue for as long as the toxic debts remain in the system.

 

 

 

Maybe.

 

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100000656/mervyn-king-wanted-to-buy-half-of-the-uk-government-debt-market/

 

Mervyn thinks so too...

 

“the current £125 billion scale of the MPC’s asset purchase programme, nominal demand would likely be insufficient to prevent inflation remaining below the 2pc target, perhaps substantially, throughout the forecast period.”

[L00b 441]

By the look of this little snippet, if the property you're looking to buy is an ex-BTL, the minimum discount you should ask for is approximately 28% (500k<>700k)

 

(enjoy the linkie BTW, and feel free to lynch some landlords thereafter ...your tax and mine has been used to make up the shortfall created by their padding their Swiss bank accounts)

Edited August 21, 2009 by L00b

[Bonjon 10]

I'm putting one in this morning, as it happens.

 

As usual, it's a question of opportunity: the right house in the right place coming on the market under the 'right circumstances' (strictly manner of speech), at what I perceive to be the right price (for once!)

 

Given the circumstances of the sale (probate, most likely), the house is undoubtedly priced to sell quick, so I'll be putting in at 10% under the asking, leaving a bit of room at the top if needed.

 

This situation is exactly what I was referring to several days or weeks ago, in this thread or another similar, when we were discussing relative discount levels, and saxondale was having a bit of a prod at me and another poster, because we were suggesting a ballpark of -25%: you always have to do your homework, and a lot of it, to recognise those few instances when a 'bigger' discount is unrealistic, particularly when the house is uncharacteristically low-priced for a quick sale (e.g. repo's, or this instance above).

 

And of course, the discount level has to reflect the buyer's particular circumstances too: in our case, already local, no chain, big deposit, mortgage-approved, with completion as fast as the surveyor/solicitor can get moving themselves. I suppose that's where brinksmanship comes in, and I've made sure the EA knows the score. He's old school (wink-wink, nudge-nudge type ) so that should help

 

I know if I was selling my house, I would not give any reduction over 5%, the markets are changing, people who are trying to get big discounts have lost the window of chance.

 

Sorry.

[Dimitri 11 10]

I know if I was selling my house, I would not give any reduction over 5%, the markets are changing, people who are trying to get big discounts have TEMPORARILY lost a window of chance. Once the bull trap ends the house price falls will pick up again in earnest.

 

 

I've edited your post for you Bonjon so that it is now an accurate description of what is going on in the housing market:)

 

What is your prediction for house prices in Sheffield - we are about 18/18.5% off of peak prices now so what do you think it will be in a years time?