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What's the housing market like at the moment?

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Buffey,

 

Can you tell me the difference between the following 2 scenarios:

 

1. a home owner being happy that house prices are rocketing even though first time buying families will be priced out.

 

2. a non home owner being happy that house prices are falling even though home owners will be in danger of negative equity.

 

Both scenarios have someone benefitting while someone suffers.

 

I'm sorry that you have construed my attitude as being strange. If it evens things out, I find your post a bit strange, so we're equal I guess.

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Top answer Sham71.

 

Me and my partner own a home and I must say I am pleased the bubble has burst. John Prescott was on the radio the other day saying that the banks were at fault for making the housing market go bust. When you lend 5 - 10 times peoples sallary you only have yourself to blame.

 

We have a recession coming and there is even talk of a depression from all this. If Gordon Brown had tucked some cash away during the good time he would be able to do more. Sadly he didn't.

 

My advice to anyone looking to move is: DON'T! Stay where you are, weather the storm and buy when we come out the other side of this recession/depression.

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Easy to blame the banks but a huge beneficiary of the bubble was the treasury. It's not hard to see why there was no inclination to regulate the market more prudently.

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or sell up and rent for a couple of years.

 

The big difference is that you can view housing dispassonately and not as some people do as a safe and welcoming haven that they have stamped their personality on. Some people like living where they feel secure and safe, part of the community and get great benefits from seeing the same neighbours each day. To some people a house is more than bricks and mortar and more than it's monetary value.

 

Your approach works for you but I can't believe that after so many postings you don't understand that some people have different criteria and views from your own.

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Top answer Sham71.

 

Me and my partner own a home and I must say I am pleased the bubble has burst. John Prescott was on the radio the other day saying that the banks were at fault for making the housing market go bust. When you lend 5 - 10 times peoples sallary you only have yourself to blame.

 

We have a recession coming and there is even talk of a depression from all this. If Gordon Brown had tucked some cash away during the good time he would be able to do more. Sadly he didn't.

 

My advice to anyone looking to move is: DON'T! Stay where you are, weather the storm and buy when we come out the other side of this recession/depression.

 

 

Id agree with most of that except that the good times of gazillions of months of +ive growth were really only based on credit expansion, so were a little illusiory (sp)

 

and Sham, schadenfeude is a terrible thing ;)...

 

:D

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The big difference is that you can view housing dispassonately and not as some people do as a safe and welcoming haven that they have stamped their personality on. Some people like living where they feel secure and safe, part of the community and get great benefits from seeing the same neighbours each day. To some people a house is more than bricks and mortar and more than it's monetary value.

 

Your approach works for you but I can't believe that after so many postings you don't understand that some people have different criteria and views from your own.

 

 

i am not advising people to sell up and rent, just saying that is where I have ended up due to circumstances. Of course I understand what it means to have a safe and secure home. Really, I am just advising people not to buy now if they don't have to.

 

as for other peoples views, you will see that there has been more animosity to my views that the other way round. And most of it has been from people with a vested interest in keeping the party going (estate agents, surveyors etc)

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I study the property guide each week, always in the vain hope that a bargain will come up that I like ;) But I've noticed some odd things happening lately. The market has become flooded, and I mean flooded, with ex-student houses, in S10 and S11. Terraces that were once in high demand and now there are literally dozens to pick from. If you wanted a terrace say around Hunters Bar or Crookes you'd be laughing now.

 

Plus there are a lot more houses that haven't sold for months on end and seem to be in every week - not the usual high end homes but ordinary and affordable homes in nice areas. And there are often price cuts and even 'sales'. The 'new homes' section gets smaller and smaller and there are ads for large price cuts on new builds.

 

Something is happening!

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Something certainly is happening. IMO two key things which leads on to a third.

 

First. The lack of availability of the cheap money that was around up until recently.

 

Second. People are frightened of their own shadows (for all sorts of reasons) and are unwilling to make a move unless they are need to.

 

Which gives rise to a third. Some of those who are motivated to sell (for whatever reason) will volunteer a hit on the their aspired asking price in order to sell, which feeds number two above.

 

 

On the upside (there is an upside? I hear you cry)...

 

First time buyers are in as good a position as at any time and IMO they are the key to stimulating the market even through the use of shared ownership.

 

Money is still available to those who are in a reasonable position - just like in the past.

 

The demand for new homes (ie brand new) is huge and there is still a national shortage that doesn't look like being satisfied any time soon. The hiatus in new home starts will only exacerbate this as time marches on.

 

The demand for rented properties will remain strong and maybe become stronger. Quite how that will affect or balance values I'm not sure to be honest.

 

The current round of write downs and profit warnings by the institutions will light the fuse to a few rockets up arses and I think that you will see some interesting (and maybe initially painful) developments in the money markets this year, all to the greater good for next year.

 

 

 

The solution? Hmm a good question, but the cycle must (and will at some time) be broken. In the meantime we have a Government that is dithering and looks like it can't organise a pish up in a brewery which further feeds number two above. Perhaps part of the solution is a general election, but how long will it take a Conservative government to unravel the mess left behind by Incapability Brown?

 

Failing the above or a variation on it... well I don't really want to think about it because house prices will be the least of peoples worries. I don't do doomsday scenarios :)

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I study the property guide each week, always in the vain hope that a bargain will come up that I like ;) But I've noticed some odd things happening lately. The market has become flooded, and I mean flooded, with ex-student houses, in S10 and S11. Terraces that were once in high demand and now there are literally dozens to pick from. If you wanted a terrace say around Hunters Bar or Crookes you'd be laughing now.

 

Plus there are a lot more houses that haven't sold for months on end and seem to be in every week - not the usual high end homes but ordinary and affordable homes in nice areas. And there are often price cuts and even 'sales'. The 'new homes' section gets smaller and smaller and there are ads for large price cuts on new builds.

 

Something is happening!

 

It's interesting isn't it?

 

I think there has always been a huge turnover in those properties, one of the reasons we moved away ironically. Last summer loads of properties on our road were on the market, maybe 15%+ of all houses as an estimate. lots of investment purchases by parents of students and lots of FTBs who are far more likely to relocate and there are probably other good reasons for high turnover.

 

The difference now is that there aren't the buyers for them, FTBs are priced out or scared away and parents can't see the potential for gain. None of them can get the mortgage terms they need anyway.

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i am not advising people to sell up and rent, just saying that is where I have ended up due to circumstances. Of course I understand what it means to have a safe and secure home. Really, I am just advising people not to buy now if they don't have to.

 

as for other peoples views, you will see that there has been more animosity to my views that the other way round. And most of it has been from people with a vested interest in keeping the party going (estate agents, surveyors etc)

 

I think it's the relentlessness of your posting the same thing so often that might get mistaken for aggression. Your advocation of 'sell up and rent for a couple of years' sounded like advice to me but is not logically thought out.

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It's interesting isn't it?

 

I think there has always been a huge turnover in those properties, one of the reasons we moved away ironically. Last summer loads of properties on our road were on the market, maybe 15%+ of all houses as an estimate. lots of investment purchases by parents of students and lots of FTBs who are far more likely to relocate and there are probably other good reasons for high turnover.

 

The difference now is that there aren't the buyers for them, FTBs are priced out or scared away and parents can't see the potential for gain. None of them can get the mortgage terms they need anyway.

 

I can see where you are coming from but I don't think that's really the full picture Tricky. IMO FTB's are the key and perhaps those properties will start to look attractive as they did 20 years ago.

 

Today, Halifax are offering FTB mortgages up to 97% LTV with 6.39% rate until 2013, then 7% for the remainder of the term. In addition they will pay for valuation, conveyancing and chuck in £500 cashback.

 

That's not a bad deal in my book. Fear, forums and journalists are bigger hurdles right now.

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It's interesting isn't it?

 

I think there has always been a huge turnover in those properties, one of the reasons we moved away ironically. Last summer loads of properties on our road were on the market, maybe 15%+ of all houses as an estimate. lots of investment purchases by parents of students and lots of FTBs who are far more likely to relocate and there are probably other good reasons for high turnover.

 

The difference now is that there aren't the buyers for them, FTBs are priced out or scared away and parents can't see the potential for gain. None of them can get the mortgage terms they need anyway.

 

Of course one other factor related to the apparent increase in properties for sale in these areas could be the development of all the new student accommodation in the University area.

 

In my first time at Uni a few years ago, people did halls for the first year then it was straight into rented properties in Crookes, Walkley etc for the rest of your course. I'm back at Uni for the second time now and there are only a handful of students in my class who have arranged a shared house for next year, the majority are opting to stay in the newly built halls.

 

So I wouldn't be surprised if this is leading to a surplus of rental accommodation in these areas, which combined with the current financial climate is probably causing a lot of landlords to decide to try and sell up quick before things get even worse and their investment decreases in value further.

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