The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

You forgot that the UK gave up a large part of the rebate in return for CAP concessions. The rebate was cut, the concessions never happened.

I didn't forget anything: it's not my job to post pro-Leave mitigating arguments. It's that of debating opponents. You're doing just fine

Le Cheque Britannique as Mr Chirac called it had to end and Mr Blair complied and got duly shafted. Just like Mr Cameron did in early 2016. Just like Greece did in 2014. Just like the EU is trying to do again with Brexit.

 

[EDIT]As for Blair being 'shafted', this link provides a useful perspective: Blair effectively 'shafted' himself.

At this meeting Mr Blair robustly rejected all these criticisms, by pointing out that even with rebate, the UK contribution was still larger than that of France. Supported by the Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, he made it clear that there would be no negotiations about the rebate. The meeting ended with considerable ill-will, especially between Britain and France.

 

However, immediately after the meeting, the UK assumed the presidency of the Council, and on assuming it, or at some point shortly afterwards, Mr Blair seemed to have a change of heart. The BBC reported him as saying that the rebate was ‘an anomaly that has to go.’[4] In his memoirs he observed that ‘as Europe enlarged it… became unfair to others. This was not hard to see. The figures were there. Agreed. Clear. In pounds, shillings and pence. Or euros.’[5]

 

Unfortunately, he has never shared those figures with anyone. His account of the summit at which he agreed to amend the rebate is singularly uninformative. ‘We preserved the rebate’, he declared, ‘tied its demise to the CAP, and agreed a break in the budget period where both could be reformed.’[6] He had agreed to abandon the right to a rebate on non-agricultural spending in member states that joined in or after 2004, apparently in the expectation that CAP funding would fall. [7]

Anyone who elected him, bears their individual share of the collective responsibility attaching to that surrender. No point blaming the EU for it, they just seized the opportunity which Blair presented them with, of his own free will.[/EDIT]

 

Could you please explain to me how each of Cameron and Greece being refused their respective 'cake and eating it' demands was 'being shafted'?

 

Because if that was 'shafting', with Brexit you just ain't seen nothing yet!

 

All sub-optimal that the CAP may well be in practice (show me a perfect system, moreover distributed across 28 member states, moreover of unequal respective stages of socio-economic development), it's preferential to the sort of exceptionalism constantly peddled by the UK and briefly peddled by Greece's government.

That's how the EU works. It is an oligarchy that thrives on Stockholm Syndrome.

You're entitled to see it that way. Doesn't necessarily make you right, of course.

 

I'm seeing the EU working as a pooling institution looking after the best collective interests of its members. Doesn't necessarily make me right, either.

 

In either case, it's a subjective opinion based both on one's understanding of the EU and one's worldview.

Edited November 14, 2017 by L00b

You're on your way out,the EU is going to do what it wants to do,what are you going to do,go down to the White Cliffs,shake your fists and stamp your feet at Europe?

 

Of course the EU is going to do what it wants to do. I'd rather the UK be inside a sensible EU but this isn't it, the vote was had, and we're going. The UK has to make the best of it and I'm afraid that your solution is a bit silly.

Of course the EU is going to do what it wants to do. I'd rather the UK be inside a sensible EU but this isn't it, the vote was had, and we're going. The UK has to make the best of it and I'm afraid that your solution is a bit silly.

 

No,it's not my solution,it's the UK's solution,I didn't do anything,and neither did the EU.The bitterness and anger coming from Farage,the Daily Right Wing Rags,you,Car Boot and many others,even though they got the Brexit they wanted tells me that Brexit was never going to be enough for some..........it was bringing down the EU that was the goal all along.Now that the 'Dominoes' have not started to fall,the true face of the Brexiters is there for all to see..............get over yourselves,you've made the bed,time to lie on it,you've took back control,now the EU is taking theirs.

Edited November 14, 2017 by chalga

I didn't forget anything: it's not my job to post pro-Leave mitigating arguments. It's that of debating opponents. You're doing just fine

Blair did make a Horlicks of it, like Brown did of the Lisbon Treaty. Enough said of ancient history, but it shows us how things work with the EU.

 

Because if that was 'shafting', with Brexit you just ain't seen nothing yet!

 

This is where it all hinges. WTO is fine and UK PLC must gear up for it, and it will be fine. It's a two sided point though as the prospect of No Deal is as unpalatable for the EU as it is for the UK.

 

In my opinion a genuine No Deal, goodbye, seeya, adieu, arrivederci, bon voyage, will bring the EU back to the table for three reasons.

First the EU NEEDS the UK's money like a child needs its mother.

Second, business and industry won't allow their various national government's to screw up their business.

Finally, the prospect of the UK PLC tax haven sitting offshore like a carrier strike force is the stuff of their nightmares.

 

It's just a shame that we've got a wet PM who doesn't like to hear news she doesn't like.

Edited November 14, 2017 by ENG601PM

Blair did make a Horlicks of it, like Brown did of the Lisbon Treaty. Enough said of ancient history, but it shows us how things work with the EU.

 

 

 

This is where it all hinges. WTO is fine and UK PLC must gear up for it, and it will be fine. It's a two sided point though as the prospect of No Deal is as unpalatable for the EU as it is for the UK.

 

In my opinion a genuine No Deal, goodbye, seeya, adieu, arrivederci, bon voyage, will bring the EU back to the table for three reasons.

First the EU NEEDS the UK's money like a child needs its mother.

Second, business and industry won't allow their various national government's to screw up their business.

Finally, the prospect of the UK PLC tax haven sitting offshore like a carrier strike force is the stuff of their nightmares.

 

It's just a shame that we've got a wet PM who doesn't like to hear news she doesn't like.

 

Best hope so,because others think different:

 

 

 

George Freeman, Tory MP and chair of the Conservative policy forum, has issued a warning that the UK could become “an old people’s home that can’t pay for itself” with excessive debts and young people fleeing the country, unless it embarks on serious economic renewal.

 

At an economics conference, the MP set out two scenarios for life in the UK after Brexit, arguing there is a real risk that Britain could take the path of decline.

 

In the good scenario, he said the UK would tackle its deficit, and “unleash a entrepreneurship revolution”.

 

He told the IPPR think tank event that he would like to see the UK become an “innovation crucible for technologies the world needs to develop”, such as clean green sustainable models of growth. He said he would like to imagine a world where the UK exported those technologies, paid off its debt and because “a happy prosperous purposeful nation again”.

 

But in the bad scenario, he said, this could be “the moment we finally failed as a great nation and became a second or third tier nation”. Imagining what this might look like from the future, he said:

 

People got up and left. We pulled out of Europe and became and isolated, small, insular, old, ageing economy. We became an old people’s home that couldn’t pay for itself.

 

That I see as a very real prospect and it chills me to the bone. It is an extreme choice but I think that is the choice we face as a country and the question whether we as a generation rise to it and grip it.

 

Freeman said the UK needed more entrepreneurship and localism - such as giving localities control over their NHS budgets - to avoid such a fate.

Best hope so,because others think different:

 

 

 

George Freeman, Tory MP and chair of the Conservative policy forum, has issued a warning that the UK could become “an old people’s home that can’t pay for itself” with excessive debts and young people fleeing the country, unless it embarks on serious economic renewal.

 

At an economics conference, the MP set out two scenarios for life in the UK after Brexit, arguing there is a real risk that Britain could take the path of decline.

 

In the good scenario, he said the UK would tackle its deficit, and “unleash a entrepreneurship revolution”.

 

He told the IPPR think tank event that he would like to see the UK become an “innovation crucible for technologies the world needs to develop”, such as clean green sustainable models of growth. He said he would like to imagine a world where the UK exported those technologies, paid off its debt and because “a happy prosperous purposeful nation again”.

 

But in the bad scenario, he said, this could be “the moment we finally failed as a great nation and became a second or third tier nation”. Imagining what this might look like from the future, he said:

 

People got up and left. We pulled out of Europe and became and isolated, small, insular, old, ageing economy. We became an old people’s home that couldn’t pay for itself.

 

That I see as a very real prospect and it chills me to the bone. It is an extreme choice but I think that is the choice we face as a country and the question whether we as a generation rise to it and grip it.

 

Freeman said the UK needed more entrepreneurship and localism - such as giving localities control over their NHS budgets - to avoid such a fate.

 

All that says to me is that George Freeman (like everyone else) doesn't know what's going to happen and has come up with a Best Case and Worst Case Scenario

You really need to ask the young people of Portugal , Italy, Greece and Spain who have found new opportunities for unemployment since the EU leveraged German finance houses and government fiscal policy requirements.

 

Youth unemployment rates of 28%, 38%, 47%, 45% respectively. For comparison the UK is 13%.

 

This argument is rather ridiculous and keeps being trotted out. Have you got any evidence that this is the result of the EU? I will give you a small pointer - it was the national governments (through the European Council) that arrived at a bail-out solution under guidance of Gordon Brown (amongst others). It wasn't a European Parliament that authorised bailouts, it was national governments.

 

This is where it all hinges. WTO is fine and UK PLC must gear up for it, and it will be fine. It's a two sided point though as the prospect of No Deal is as unpalatable for the EU as it is for the UK.

 

WTO isn't fine, over half of foodstuffs is imported into the UK, WTO rates are for tarriffs upto 50% on those products. This argument was trotted forward recently by a Tory politician who stated: 'It doesn't matter that Prosecco becomes 50% more expensive, the British will have British sparkling wine which is much nicer anyway' - conveniently forgetting that British sparkling wine is already at least twice the price of Prosecco.

 

He of course ignored the fact that something as elementary as sugar, or indeed most fruit and veg will also go up in price exponentially.

 

In my opinion a genuine No Deal, goodbye, seeya, adieu, arrivederci, bon voyage, will bring the EU back to the table for three reasons.

First the EU NEEDS the UK's money like a child needs its mother.

Second, business and industry won't allow their various national government's to screw up their business.

 

The EU doesn't want the UK to leave with no deal, but it isn't in a position to offer any concessions to the UK on the single market. Do you know why? Because the UK (in it's current rush to leave) won't accept it. This has been made abundantly clear by the PM and government on numerous occassions. How do you negotiate with that?

 

Finally, the prospect of the UK PLC tax haven sitting offshore like a carrier strike force is the stuff of their nightmares.

 

It isn't, a very simple fix to that issue is already being put in place - the EU is soon putting in legislation that states that no money can come into the EU if it comes from tax havens and hasn't fair EU tax levied on it. In other words, you can put your money into the BVI or IoM or Jersey or wherever, it won't be accepted into the EU for payment of anything unless you pay the going tax rate for it.

 

It's just a shame that we've got a wet PM who doesn't like to hear news she doesn't like.

 

That is indeed a shame, especially as she generates that bad news. I assume you are happy for the government to release those government-funded reports that clearly state Brexit will damage the UK PLC enormously as has been asked for on numerous occassions?

All that says to me is that George Freeman (like everyone else) doesn't know what's going to happen and has come up with a Best Case and Worst Case Scenario

 

And there's more:

 

The IPPR is seen as a left-leaning thinktank, but it has just put out a statement endorsing what Nick Timothy, Theresa May’s former co chief of staff, said about Philip Hammond, the chancellor, in his Sun column.

 

Tom Kibasi, IPPR director and chair of the IPPR commission on economic justice said:

 

The IPPR commission on economic justice was welcomed to No10 in January this year to discuss the fundamental reforms that are necessary to improve the British economy for ordinary people.

 

Nick Timothy is right that there has been too little progress in promoting economic justice. Next week the chancellor has the opportunity to take the policy initiative and put economic justice at the heart of his budget.

 

At today’s IPPR commission on economic justice conference there is a striking degree of consensus from business and trade unions that fundamental change to economic policy is now required, with both the heads of CBI business group and the GMB trade union calling for more investment to promote economic growth.

 

 

 

Seems like some people are actually getting real and looking a the root cause of the problem in the UK,and stopped trying to blame the EU.

Edited November 14, 2017 by chalga

https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/12/russian-twitter-accounts-tried-to-influence-brexit/

 

Have we seen this one, more evidence for Russian propaganda influencing the vote.

Blair did make a Horlicks of it, like Brown did of the Lisbon Treaty. Enough said of ancient history, but it shows us how things work with the EU.

Things don't work with the EU any differently than in any other context where two parties have <for whatever reasons> diverging interests. And even then, I'd say that common sense alone dictates that things work somewhat better between parties (with diverging interests, e.g. UK forever wanting -and mostly getting- this/that/the other exception) within a same club, then between third parties at arms' length. But well. We are where we are.

This is where it all hinges. WTO is fine and UK PLC must gear up for it, and it will be fine.

No issue from me with that view.

 

The UK is -and always was- sovereign, whereby it is fully entitled to chart its own course as it sees fit.

 

Though the UK holds no sway over the constituent parts of UK plc (save of course for the policies and systems implemented to entice and facilitate UK plc's life).

 

WTO terms will be fine (after adjustment), *if* the current government (or the next) gets their head out of their a55 in one big hurry, and starts rolling out everything which the UK *must* have in place and running by 23:01 GMT on 29 March 2019. If it doesn't, then this 'adjustment' will just take longer and might be a tad more uncomfortable for the average John Smith.

 

Nothing pro- or anti-Brexit in that, just restating the cold hard pragmatic reality dictated by WTO terms.

It's a two sided point though as the prospect of No Deal is as unpalatable for the EU as it is for the UK.

 

In my opinion a genuine No Deal, goodbye, seeya, adieu, arrivederci, bon voyage, will bring the EU back to the table for three reasons.

First the EU NEEDS the UK's money like a child needs its mother.

Second, business and industry won't allow their various national government's to screw up their business.

Finally, the prospect of the UK PLC tax haven sitting offshore like a carrier strike force is the stuff of their nightmares.

The EU doesn't NEED the UK's money. It's nice-to-have money, not lifeblood money.

 

In view of Barnier's public warning for the EU/27 to prepare for no deal this week, and based on the EU's prior form in this and other negotiations, I'm very confident that the EU has already worked out where to trim and by how much in their budgets in case of no exit bill/no deal. The EU is nothing if not prepared.

 

As for what business and industry want and/or "won't allow", well, we've seen the extent of that notion in the UK (with a pro-business party at the helm all along) since June 2016, haven't we? They are as hostage to the ideology-driven political agenda as the rest of the UK (the non-plc bit ). After that, it's just numbers. On the EU27 side, a 400m+ single market with bigger and stronger national economies than the UK and accelerating growth. On the UK side, a 65m+ single market (perhaps: what of NI?) with stalling growth. Place your bets

 

As for the prospects of the UK sitting as a tax haven, you really need to look into the US-EU combined efforts of the past decade-and-a-bit to rid the globe of tax havens: the US won't allow the Apple, Google, Nike <etc.> of this world to offshore-harbour profits into the UK, any more than the EU will, and both will make this a hinge point (amongst so many others) within future 'trade agreements'.

 

---------- Post added 14-11-2017 at 13:50 ----------

 

https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/12/russian-twitter-accounts-tried-to-influence-brexit/

 

Have we seen this one, more evidence for Russian propaganda influencing the vote.

See here:

If you do a fair bit of digging, and subject to your trust in third party reports, their alleged capacity for politico-electronic skulduggery appears to exceed their military capacity quite significantly and, looking at Brexit, Trump and Renzo (to say nothing of their now de facto annexation of Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Georgia, his run-n-love-ins with Erdolf, etc.), with the results to show.

 

Putin is a time-served master of Realpolitik, and wholly unencumbered by any rules of engagement (a.k.a. domestic opposition and systemic checks & balances). He's not too dissimilar to ISIS and other ultra-nationalists in that respect: he pushes and probes for gain constantly, tirelessly, relentlessly and only pauses or gets checked by force. And to say that he's perfectly understood the force-multiplying effect amd multifarious roles and uses of electronic warfare is a very mild understatement. Wholly unsurprising, given his professional spook background.

 

Ignore it at your peril.

and here:

Putin doesn't need to expect anti-EU rethoric in return for services rendered: Marine has been engaging in anti-EU rethoric for free, pushing Frexit and a return to the French Franc as part of her political platform for years

 

As for the said services, opinion shaping and election meddling through disinformation campaigns across social media outlets (known to intelligence services as 'fancy bear' aka 'advanced persistent threat APT28' and 'cozy bear' aka 'advanced persistent threat APT29'), they are fully expected by French and German governments and their intelligence services. Who have been putting the corporate backs of Facebook and the likes against the wall for the past 2 weeks over there.

 

Needless to say, not much heard about it on this side of the Channel, has there?

 

---------- Post added 13-01-2017 at 16:57 ----------

 

Topically, look who just happened to turn up at Trump Towers yesterday afternoon (12 January), for a cosy latte with her partner Louis Alliot, Guido Lombardi (the "Italian LePen Sr", Google Italy and Northern League) and Pierre Ceyrac (long-time professional influence peddler and Moonist)...?

 

What, rather an incongruous lot?

 

You don't say!

I think many will be surprised by the relevance to Brexit, of the ongoing US investigation about interference by Russia in the US presidential election and the alleged collusion between Trump & Putin. There are good reasons why Mr Farage and friends mentioned in this article are all persons of interest to that US investigation: the geopolitical interests of Putin and the economic interests of Farage's backers clearly converge.

 

Time will tell, there's a long way to go about all that yet.

Edited November 14, 2017 by L00b

https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/12/russian-twitter-accounts-tried-to-influence-brexit/

 

Have we seen this one, more evidence for Russian propaganda influencing the vote.

 

That a bit of a laugh, using twitter..

 

Do you think the makeup of those that voted leave (according to some) under educated, poor, disafected and the old are using twitter accounts?

That a bit of a laugh, using twitter..

 

Do you think the makeup of those that voted leave (according to some) under educated, poor, disafected and the old are using twitter accounts?

 

Do you use Twitter?