The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

Leaving the EU is a one-off event.

The future is (as always) unknown.

So let's see what it brings. Most guesses about anything in the future tend to be wrong!

 

You make it sound like we booked a hotel with some dodgy reviews on tripadvisor

 

The reality is this process could be leading a major country with 65 million people off an economic cliff

 

How can you not at least have a basic vision of where this process would lead

 

It’s crazy. Totally nuts.

so are you Brexiteers happy with the latest news of buying our way into a deal?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42060183

 

maybe 40bn, twice as much as offered?

 

does this show that the EU needs us more? or does it show that Britain DOESNT hold most of the cards and is desperate for a deal?

Leaving the EU is a one-off event.

The future is (as always) unknown.

So let's see what it brings. Most guesses about anything in the future tend to be wrong!

I guess that's why Leavers never saw fit to provide a detailed breakdown of the advantages to Britain of leaving the EU?

 

I do mean detailed, not the usual vague "Oh we'll get great trade deals", "Oh we'll save money not spent on EU", "Oh we'll trade more with Asia the fastest growing economy" with no substance whatsoever.

 

Take trade deals as an example: the UK government admitted that they are not going to negotiate new trade deals, but try to push for the same deal they had while part of EU (obviously not realizing that the EU offered a significantly larger market for said country to give such a deal) and then, down the line, improve on it somehow.

 

So remove all trade deals, then go back and negotiate to try to get the same deal (as a 65m people economy instead of a 500m one) which you walked away from. And that is supposed to improve UK exports...how?

 

The last year is already littered with a litany of similar u-turns, broken promises and other climb-downs from imbecilic pre-referendum proclamations.

 

So hand-waving earlier predictions as "guesses" (and strongly suggesting as your post does, that they are uneducated) must be tiring, when these earlier predictions are now coming true at a rate of knots.

 

You've been with UKIP for years now, Jeffey. What's your plan for the after-Brexit time?

 

so are you Brexiteers happy with the latest news of buying our way into a deal?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42060183

 

maybe 40bn, twice as much as offered?

 

does this show that the EU needs us more? or does it show that Britain DOESNT hold most of the cards and is desperate for a deal?

May's offer (which she's been "authorised" to make: strong and stable alright! ) is just like haggling over a used car, when a figure plucked out of thin air is absolutely not what the EU is after: what the EU wants is commitment from the UK about which budget lines it will honour and which it will not, with room to manoeuvre for contingencies and discounts here and there.

 

Whatever the <actual> figure ends up being, after following the schedule agreed in the end, is whatever it happens to be: €20bn, €40bn, €60bn...

 

Nor does that answer the other 2 corners of the Stage 1 triangle: citizens' rights and NI border.

 

Back to the drawing board for you and your Brexiteers, Ms May. With the dunce hat.

Edited November 21, 2017 by L00b

so are you Brexiteers happy with the latest news of buying our way into a deal?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42060183

 

maybe 40bn, twice as much as offered?

 

does this show that the EU needs us more? or does it show that Britain DOESNT hold most of the cards and is desperate for a deal?

 

It won’t be enough.

 

At some point we will also be caving into agreeing to annual payments

Come on Loob, your Stockholm Syndrome is kicking in far too quickly again.

 

I'll just take the one example - the upcoming repatriation of 130 tonnes of EU nuclear waste at Sellafield, or the eye watering future bill for its storage, OR the compromise on EURATOM. Unwinding issues around individual bodies like EURATOM isn't simple but don't throw in the towel because Barnier makes some mid-negotiation pronouncements that he can't stand by.

 

Brexit is happening and no amount of moaning from the sidelines is going to help anyone and you can surely differentiate political posturing from upcoming hard reality that all parties are going to have to compromise. The UK's compromise is giving the cash that the EU institutions need and the EU's compromise is accepting the cash and giving the UK what it wants. There's your very first trade deal right there.

 

But we're out and that's it. No more single market, no more customs union, no more freedom of movement, and all that goes with it. This was all explicitly promised before the referendum, and it is what the majority voted for.

 

 

 

No doubting the result, but if you really believe your last paragraph, that the majority voted for all those things, then you’re either Boris, Farage, Pritti or Isabel Oakshott, and I claim my ten bob.

 

The majority voted, tv interviews, personal discussions, Sun, Express, Fail ,because of immigration, no more no less. What did that idiot from Barnsley say on Channel 4 news “ we want them Muslims out, I’ve nothing against Europeans but we don’t want any more Muslims” you couldn’t make it up

so are you Brexiteers happy with the latest news of buying our way into a deal?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42060183

 

maybe 40bn, twice as much as offered?

 

Can't see the EU starting trade deal talks without some idea of what's happening with Northern Ireland, doesn't matter how much is offered.

 

I suspect it'll need to go a little higher yet, and some ECJ concessions.

UK aerospace firms are already losing out on business due to the Brexit vote, MPs have heard. As the Press Association reports, Simon Henley, president-elect of the Royal Aeronautical Society, said companies are being stopped from bidding for contracts as part of the Galileo satellite programme because it is funded by the European Union.

 

Giving evidence to the Commons business committee, he said the UK has previously been “very successful” in supplying the €10bn (£8.9bn) system managed by the European Space Agency. Henley said:

 

We have had companies now reporting to us that they are being excluded from bidding for contracts on Galileo.

 

Although membership of the European Space Agency is not part of the EU discussions because it’s not an EU body, many of the contracts including Galileo are EU-funded and it’s a requirement that the companies that participate and get funding and bid for contracts are part of an EU country.

 

We’re already seeing contracts being turned away from UK industry because of the uncertainty

UK aerospace firms are already losing out on business due to the Brexit vote, MPs have heard. As the Press Association reports, Simon Henley, president-elect of the Royal Aeronautical Society, said companies are being stopped from bidding for contracts as part of the Galileo satellite programme because it is funded by the European Union.

 

Giving evidence to the Commons business committee, he said the UK has previously been “very successful” in supplying the €10bn (£8.9bn) system managed by the European Space Agency. Henley said:

 

We have had companies now reporting to us that they are being excluded from bidding for contracts on Galileo.

 

Although membership of the European Space Agency is not part of the EU discussions because it’s not an EU body, many of the contracts including Galileo are EU-funded and it’s a requirement that the companies that participate and get funding and bid for contracts are part of an EU country.

 

We’re already seeing contracts being turned away from UK industry because of the uncertainty

 

dont worry we can always compete with US plane manufacturers....oh no wait, we all know how those turn out already dont we?

Just wondering if anyone on the Forum has changed their mind on pro or anti Brexit as some of the realities begin to emerge.

Most posters seem pretty well entrenched in their views but perhaps some have been swayed one way or the other since the referendum.

May agrees to £40bn exit bill.

 

That’s £1500 per U.K. household

 

But it does not have to be divided per household as they have not been asked to pay it. What you mean is if that money was divided per household then it would equate to £1500 per household.

 

---------- Post added 21-11-2017 at 20:02 ----------

 

Some perhaps, but to suggest most leavers didn't believe them and were voting to make their lives worse is... fanciful.

 

As you know I didnt suggest that, I said "myself and many others".. Twisting words to suit again eh.

 

Also, most people didn't vote to leave, they either voted to stay or were agnostic. Odd that you think they won't have a voice in all this.

 

Oh dear, doing it again. I never mentioned anything about not having a voice in all this did I? But since you brought it up you should know that elections are about people who vote and not those that abstain. In any election those that abstain do not count. The simple fact is the electorate who did vote leave were in the majority and its that majority that is important and what counts.

Edited November 21, 2017 by apelike

But it does not have to be divided per household as they have not been asked to pay it. What you mean is if that money was divided per household then it would equate to £1500 per household.

 

---------- Post added 21-11-2017 at 20:02 ----------

 

 

As you know I didnt suggest that, I said "myself and many others".. Twisting words to suit again eh.

 

Oh dear, doing it again. I never mentioned anything about not having a voice in all this did I? But since you brought it up you should know that elections are about people who vote and not those that abstain. In any election those that abstain do not count. The simple fact is the electorate who did vote leave were in the majority and its that majority that is important and what counts.

 

Are you nuts? Of course each household has to pay it. Through taxes almost every time they earn and almost every time they spend.

 

It’s an average of £1500 per household.

 

Then there are the other costs that are going to hit families hard.

Are you nuts? Of course each household has to pay it. Through taxes almost every time they earn and almost every time they spend.

 

Ah, just like any other spend by the government then including the £150+ billion that Trident will cost. So you now expect taxes to go up to pay for this then?