The Consequences of Brexit [part 5] Read 1st post before posting

All the electrical and white goods shops in Newry used to price their goods in Punts as 90% of their customers were from the South. (Newry residents would actually go up to Belfast to buy those items as they were cheaper there!)

 

Whatever deal is cooked up between Britain, the EU and the Irish government, any attempt to reimpose a border of any sort will be resisted by the people on both sides of the border.

Driving a single truck of cigarettes into the UK, legally bought in the RoI without paying any fees for it (with VAT reclaimed due to export to Brexited 3rd party UK) is worth around half a million £ purely on what you save in VAT duties. Sell them on with a small £ mark up (but still well below UK dutied and VATed) and that will go up well beyond a £ million profit.

That is a single truck netting you half a million: now add in booze, or anything else with point duties etc. and suddenly you're talking VAT scams going on, on a scale of multi-billions a month. With zero controls on the UK side (since no border according to Mogglodytes, and May today) to stop you flooding the UK mainland markets, so as close to risk-free as you can get.

Question to Brexiteers (except Penny ): how long do you think the UK government will accept losing that amount of money by not having controls?

I am just pointing out agreements can be made meaning there doesn't have to be an harder border between an EU country and country that is not in the EU.

Indeed customs union, single market membership or EEA.

All of which you've argued against.

The problems aren't that it can't be done, it just can't be done under the red lines you have imposed upon yourself.

The UK Government have already agreed to allow free movement of people to continue across the Irish border.

 

A technical solution has been suggested for declaring goods.

The problem being that no-one other than the government thinks it'll work, certainly not the hauliers or anyone who actually moves any of these goods, and not within the next 5 years (at least).

Also, the UK has form on not collecting the tarrifs correctly:

https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-demands-uk-pay-e2-7-billion-in-lost-customs-duties/

Passporting rights are not going to put the Good Friday Agreement at risk, which several posters are apparently very concerned about protecting.

Quite, but passporting rights do account for a significant proportion of the UK's GDP.

The UK Government have already agreed to allow free movement of people to continue across the Irish border.

This does not require the agreement of the UK Government.

Apart from security checks by the RUC and the British Army, there has always been free movement of people since the border was created in 1921.

Offhand, I can't think of any other example in the world where complete freedom of movement of people between two sovereign nations is guaranteed. Even signatories to the Schengen Agreement are still allowed to temporarily reimpose border controls in certain circumstances. Even a technological solution to border controls in Ireland could be deemed to be in breach of the Good Friday Agreement.

I very much doubt that Republican paramilitaries would attack any signs of a 'hard border' such as surveillance camera positions, data lines and power supplies to devices set up either side of the border. It would be a campaign of well supported civil disobedience which will make the system unworkable. Remember, over 90% of the population in the border areas are Irish nationalists, North and South. And unlike during the 'Troubles' where the Irish government supported the British government, a post Brexit Irish government would not be so fervent in their support, especially as Sinn Fein is now a growing force in the politics of the South. The danger lies in the mobilisation of police or even troops into border areas to deal with this civil disobedience.

That is when paramilitaries will become involved.

You can't honestly believe after Brexit that it will be easier for illegal immigrants in mainland Europe to enter the UK via Ireland?

If there’s no hard border it will be as easy as it is now

---------- Post added 20-07-2018 at 18:06 ----------

Don't confuse ‘free movement’ with ‘no controls’: the U.K. is not in Schengen, and so HMBF indeed checks ”the occupants of every vehicle, including who might be hiding in the boot” and has done for decades.

 

Free movement means freedom to go anywhere across the EU28 and visit and settle (subject to domestic variations and contraints on these basic rights, eg no entitlement to benefits for x months, must go back within 3m or 6m if can’t support themselves, etc).

 

It doesn’t mean “without having both ID and entitlement to cross the border checked”: only Schengen does that, which is a set of optional rules grafted ‘on top of’ the FoM principle.

 

Edit to add: persons checks should not be conflated with goods checks at borders, either. There are a ton more regulatory hoops, jumps, t’s and i’s that apply to goods for crossing a border, relative to people.

That holds true for entry to U.K. ports, airports etc...

I could cross the NI border at any one of hundreds of places, any time of day without being challenged

---------- Post added 20-07-2018 at 18:09 ----------

Don’t forget exceptions to Schengen principles were requested by, and granted to, several countries in the wake of terrorist attacks over the past few years. France chief amongst them, and it’s bordering countries.

I’ve been travelling through Switzerland for about 30 years, usually into Geneva and then to France.

There always was and still is a very real sense of a border. Physical buildings, guards etc...

Not unlike what you have at UK ports like Holyhead

If there’s no hard border it will be as easy as it is now

I understand Mays plan is to get fairies to collect taxes, tariffs and Leprechauns will threaten immigrants with arrest.

I understand Mays plan is to get fairies to collect taxes, tariffs and Leprechauns will threaten immigrants with arrest.

That sounds like May’s most credible plan yet

Interesting piece on C4 News tonight about Brexit bankroller Aaron Banks.

Apparently he was loaned a rather large sum of money by Russian businessmen to bail out his failing diamond mines in South Africa*. Nothing wrong with that, I hear you say but he has repeatedly denied having any business meetings with Russians.

We already know that a lot of the Brexit facebook manipulation was done from Russian cities but now it's possible that most of the money which bankrolled the Vote Leave campaign could either have been provided by Russia or offered in exchange for favours done by Russia.

Now I'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories, but if it turns out that Russia is attempting to undermine the EU through the Brexit referendum AND the election of Donald Trump, it will rival any LeCarrè novel!

(*not sure how you can have a failing diamond mine)

Interesting piece on C4 News tonight about Brexit bankroller Aaron Banks.

 

Apparently he was loaned a rather large sum of money by Russian businessmen to bail out his failing diamond mines in South Africa*. Nothing wrong with that, I hear you say but he has repeatedly denied having any business meetings with Russians.

 

We already know that a lot of the Brexit facebook manipulation was done from Russian cities but now it's possible that most of the money which bankrolled the Vote Leave campaign could either have been provided by Russia or offered in exchange for favours done by Russia.

 

Now I'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories, but if it turns out that Russia is attempting to undermine the EU through the Brexit referendum AND the election of Donald Trump, it will rival any LeCarrè novel!

 

(*not sure how you can have a failing diamond mine)

Take one idiot. Convince him to invest in borderline viable mines. Watch him start to sink. Come to his rescue. Get him to do stuff for you in return. Supported by other Russian assets. Maybe a tactical poisoning here or there to show him what could happen if he steps out of line. Bish bash bosh. Sorted.

That’s the novel I’d write. But I’d have a James Bond-type character castrating him with an exploding Russian doll.

That sounds like May’s most credible plan yet

Barnier sez "no":

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons

At this rate we'll get the hard Brexit we all voted for.

I hope there are no regrets next year when it all starts to bite.

Barnier sez "no":

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons

I saw this perfect analogy on Twitter.

" Woman setting fire to neighbour’s fence says it’s up to neighbour to find “workable” solution."

At this rate we'll get the hard Brexit we all voted for.

 

I hope there are no regrets next year when it all starts to bite.

We didn't all vote for it.