The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

I can't see Spain allowing an independent Scotland in to the EU with the problems they've got with Catalonia wanting independence. And wouldn't all the 27 have to agree?

She's also putting conditions on when the referendum would be, I remember Alex Salmon nearly filled his pants when they were given the last referendum.

Even if it happened the Scots would need to consider the favourable deal they already get in the U.K. No tuition fees, free prescriptions for all, free dental care, free optical care and free social care for the elderly, I can't see the EU subsidising that lot.

I think Scots are no dafter than you or I, and know full well how likely they are to keep that "favourable deal" post-Brexit with Nos 10 and 11 in the hands of the hard Tory right without an ounce of credible opposition in sight.

The end of the UK inscribes itself fully within the ideological progression started by Brexit. So look on the bright side, Yokshire will probably be sovereign by 2020

I can't see Spain allowing an independent Scotland in to the EU with the problems they've got with Catalonia wanting independence. And wouldn't all the 27 have to agree?

She's also putting conditions on when the referendum would be, I remember Alex Salmon nearly filled his pants when they were given the last referendum.

Even if it happened the Scots would need to consider the favourable deal they already get in the U.K. No tuition fees, free prescriptions for all, free dental care, free optical care and free social care for the elderly, I can't see the EU subsidising that lot.

The case for an independent Scotland makes no economic sense. It will be interesting to see the kind of figures the nationalists put forward this time to justify it.

One thing we can agree on, I assume. The Scottish have a higher percentage in favour of an Independence referendum than the UK ever had for an EU referendum, yet we still had one

Do you have data?

I have this:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line

It shows "no" leading "yes" in all but one poll in the last 6 months and in the latest poll and the only "yes" lead is 1% which is well within the margin of error.

It's certainly possible that "yes" would win, but unlikely.

For a start the oil revenue is gone. That's going to make it tough for the Scottish.

Now if I were Scottish, I'd probably vote for independence. The Scottish like socialism but they never really get it. From a point of view of democracy and sovereignty the case is clear. As an Englishman I'm quite fond of the Scots. I don't mind (most of the time) subsidising them as I think of them as kindred. But it's not for me to say.

Whatever they decide good luck to them. But please, either way, can this be the last vote for at least 20 years. Please!

I may have news for you

You mean, the deal they voted to keep if the UK stayed in the EU? Seems it's the Tories who didn't read the small print of that deal.

 

I think Scots are no dafter than you or I, and know full well how likely they are to keep that "favourable deal" post-Brexit with Nos 10 and 11 in the hands of the hard Tory right without an ounce of credible opposition in sight.

 

The end of the UK inscribes itself fully within the ideological progression started by Brexit. So look on the bright side, Yokshire will probably be sovereign by 2020

I think Rojoy has got enough problems of his own keeping a government together without worrying about Scotland. Never the less even if you're correct all the other advantages Scotland enjoys as part of the UK would probably over ride any desire for independence.

The Catalan case for independence seems to me to have a much sounder basis than the Scottish case.

It has a much stronger economy (with a stronger tourist industry and also a stronger manufacturing base). It is already using the euro, so we know what currency it would use. It also has its own language, culture and, of course, a world class football team. Also, it has a stronger case based on historical grievances than does Scotland (Catalonia was on the Republic side during the civil war and suffered very badly). Also, Madrid is still refusing to allow a referendum, which is bound to fuel the sense of grievance in the country.

One thing we can agree on, I assume. The Scottish have a higher percentage in favour of an Independence referendum than the UK ever had for an EU referendum, yet we still had one

No we cant as they don't have the higher percentage to hold one as the higher percentage is for Scotland to stay part of the UK. Sturgeon by asking for a section 30 will also be going back on her promise of "a once in generation" vote, not good for her future.

Quote from the BBC:

"Her official spokesman responded to Ms Sturgeon's announcement by saying that the evidence "clearly showed a majority of people in Scotland do not want a second independence referendum".

Its Sturgeon that wants it in retribution for being ignored on the Brexit appeal. I also doubt May will allow one until after we have left.

The Catalan case for independence seems to me to have a much sounder basis than the Scottish case.

 

It has a much stronger economy (with a stronger tourist industry and also a stronger manufacturing base). It is already using the euro, so we know what currency it would use. It also has its own language, culture and, of course, a world class football team. Also, it has a stronger case based on historical grievances than does Scotland (Catalonia was on the Republic side during the civil war and suffered very badly). Also, Madrid is still refusing to allow a referendum, which is bound to fuel the sense of grievance in the country.

If Catalan seceded, the country of Catalan would have to petition for EU membership under article 49 of the Lisbon treaty.

---------- Post added 13-03-2017 at 14:50 ----------

No we cant as they don't have the higher percentage to hold one as the higher percentage is for Scotland to stay part of the UK. Sturgeon by asking for a section 30 will also be going back on her promise of "a once in generation" vote, not good for her future.

 

Quote from the BBC:

 

"Her official spokesman responded to Ms Sturgeon's announcement by saying that the evidence "clearly showed a majority of people in Scotland do not want a second independence referendum".

 

Its Sturgeon that wants it in retribution for being ignored on the Brexit appeal. I also doubt May will allow one until after we have left.

That's not the same thing.

The people of Scotland may not want the vote, but if the vote is called, they'll still vote and it will be close.

I'd like to point out that there is a dedicated thread on this. May I respectfully suggest that further discussion of Scexit take place there.

That's not the same thing.

The people of Scotland may not want the vote, but if the vote is called, they'll still vote and it will be close.

 

 

I'd like to point out that there is a dedicated thread on this. May I respectfully suggest that further discussion of Scexit take place there.

Yep no problems as I have just seen it after posting this...

If Catalan seceded, the country of Catalan would have to petition for EU membership under article 49 of the Lisbon treaty..

Yes it would, but it already meets the currency requirement, which Scotland does not. In addition to not having its own currency, Scotland would have difficulty in meeting the other financial criteria for acceptance into the eurozone. Catalonia also would have land borders with the EU, whereas Scotland will not after Brexit, if the Scots voted for independence.

Yes it would, but it already meets the currency requirement, which Scotland does not. In addition to not having its own currency, Scotland would have difficulty in meeting the other financial criteria for acceptance into the eurozone. Catalonia also would have land borders with the EU, whereas Scotland will not after Brexit, if the Scots voted for independence.

All very good points.

Yes it would, but it already meets the currency requirement, which Scotland does not. In addition to not having its own currency, Scotland would have difficulty in meeting the other financial criteria for acceptance into the eurozone. Catalonia also would have land borders with the EU, whereas Scotland will not after Brexit, if the Scots voted for independence.

Sturgeon by asking for a section 30 will also be going back on her promise of "a once in generation" vote, not good for her future.

Balderdash. The situation has changed more than enough to justify a second vote.

Its Sturgeon that wants it in retribution for being ignored on the Brexit appeal. I also doubt May will allow one until after we have left.

There is nothing May can do to prevent Scotland from holding a vote if Scotland wants to hold a vote. Of course, the vote would only be advisory...

Since Northern Ireland also want to remain in the EU and Wales was quite possibly voting more against Westminster than the EU, I suggest that Scotland invites them along for the vote, and if the vote goes that way then the UK can remain in the EU and England can leave the UK. Simples.