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Posts posted by L00b

  1. 47 minutes ago, retep said:

    I can see a lot of disappointed remain voters on the 1st of January.

    What, you mean more disappointed than in the past 4 years?


    I can see a lot more people disappointed than merely remain voters a few weeks into January.

    The current logistics nightmare and shelves getting bare up and down the country? That’s a foretaste. Trade &customs experts can explain why, if you’re bothered. They were predicting the container crisis weeks ago, likewise the current Channel bottlenecks months ago.

    56 minutes ago, ECCOnoob said:

    What's nonsense you are talking. The 2019 election was exactly an opportunity for people to change their mind. If there was even a sniff that the tide turned and people were no longer wishing to leave the EU - any party with even a proposal of overturning would have absolutely stormed it come polling day. They didn't.


    Not only did the clearly brexit pushing Tories win the election they won with a huge increase in their majority share. If that's not a clear signal of what the majority wanted in relation to brexit I don't know what is.


    I don't particularly like the results of leaving myself.   It certainly was never my choice.  However, I'm also smart enough to see see the clear direction that things have taken. Whether it is actually disaster remains to be seen but you cannot possibly pretend that the public have not spoken.


    Who on earth are you to arrogantly declare that the majority electorate choice is wrong and your position is right?   That sort of attitude doesn't doesn't sound much like 'democracy' to me.  That's what dictators do isn't it.



    This Tories huge increase was gained by a minority of the electorate. 37.something percent.


    Over 50 percent of the electorate voted for parties opposed to Brexit (Greens, LibDems, SNP, etc i.e. neither Tories not Labour).


    FPTP did the rest.


    A bit less revisionism, please.

  2. 2 hours ago, RJRB said:

    It’s a fact that political change in a democracy is a slow process.

    This lot are in for another 3 years or so and the best that some of us can hope for is that Johnson is ousted together with his low calibre ministers.

    I think that they would make up a good cast for a sit com based on a third rate public school.

    Boris the bumbling head,Raab the gym teacher, and Shapps,Williamson,Hancock Sunak As house masters .I will give some thought to the house names but suggestions welcome.

    Priti Patel would of course be the matron,and Dominic Cummings the scheming janitor.

    So unless we roll out the tumbrels that’s the way it is,unless you have some advice for us.



    Sorry, but no.  No more. 4+ years of it, now I’m all out. And tired. And disinvested. 

    Just watching the bin fire from afar, shaking my head every now and then (eg at Dan Hannan’s peerage today) and not even bothering with the popcorn these days.


    Just more and more Tory politicians I wouldn’t p*** on if they were on fire. And that’s not good for my blood pressure, so I’m weaning myself from it all ever so gradually (- you may be glad to hear 😉).

    But I am looking forward to take stock of the Conservatives’ eventual legacy in a few years’ time. Gibraltar is looking to be joining Schengen within days, and I’d call that a result, however unintentional it may be. I expect Scotland and NI to follow well within the decade.


  3. 4 hours ago, RJRB said:

    It is indeed what it is.

    We will continue to adjust to the new normal on a day to day basis,and we in the U.K. will have to forgo our lettuce ,cauliflowers,strawberries and raspberries,whilst you will enjoy a glut as the growers need to move their produce.

    Perhaps we are heading back to the times of my youth when we accept that crops are seasonal.

    But please don’t think that we are totally in the dark about the problems that lay ahead for all of us as the problems are about the only thing that truly unites Europe at the moment.

    Just to give a nod to this actual thread rather than Brexit or Covid it might be an enormous challenge for any government at the moment,but this P.M.and his assembled ministers are way over their heads.


    I don't think that.


    But looking at where the Conservatives are taking you all, still without any opposition -political or otherwise- and with ever less accountability over time, one simply cannot help but wonder at times.


    This is why I said "it would not surprise me", instead of asserting the notion as fact.

  4. 25 minutes ago, RJRB said:

    Of course such interviews are represented in the U.K. and of course the emphasis in mainland Europe is to continue to serve the markets which best suit the logistics.

    We are also aware that there are currently many non U.K. drivers and vehicles which are stuck over here and the first essential is to get these back over the channel.

    Early days but other than the physical limitations imposed by the channel,it is no different to the travel limitations that we have seen imposed all over Europe this year.

    No different to travel limitations eatlier this year? It has nothing (much) to do with those travel limitations earlier this year.


    Covid did not create those queues. UK businesses did, with driving up their stockholding of EU <whatever> in anticipation of the end of the withdrawal agreement, in the continuing absence of Conservative governance about operational customs procedures in...<checks notes now>... 9 days' time.


    I don't remember 1500 lorries stuck in Kent at any time earlier this year, and that stack was not caused by yesterday's border lockdown: there have been lorry queues of miles upon miles on the A16 in France and the M20 in Kent for a good couple of weeks at least.


    It is early days, that said, you are right. Just the new normal settling in.


    This is the Conservatives thread, not the Brexit Consequences thread. So it is apt to remind that this whole logistics bin fire is on them: this is what "having enough of experts" and "****** business" does to a country.


    Were this the Labour thread, it would be apt to also remind, that this is what not opposing the ruling party, but letting it run unhinged and unchecked, does to a country.


    Hey-ho. It is what it is.

  5. 12 hours ago, Baron99 said:



    That statistic makes for interesting reading.  Those EU owned freight businesses won't be wanting any future delays such as we have seen today, post-Brexit, will they?  As said many times, businesses will eventually dictate the outcome of Brexit. 


    The UK / French border is a two-way thing, as are the delays in delivering goods to either side, as is the length of time each country decides to spend on possible, protracted physical border checks & the accompanying bureaucracy. 


    There have been many interviews of EU drivers in those queues on both sides of the Channel over the past few days, on French and German TV news. And interviews of haulage managing directors, I saw variously French, Dutch and Estonian ones.


    All are saying the same thing: until there is clarity on import-export procedures between the EU27 and the UK, they just won't go to the UK any more. There's enough haulage demand intra-EU to not waste €s having trucks sitting still for days on end.


    So I suppose that you are right in one respect, they don't want any future delays. But they're not coming to the UK's rescue, any more than German car manufacturers, Italian prosecco bottlers <etc>.


    I would not be surprised in the least if such interviews/news don't get broadcast in the UK. I understand that the M20 webcam feeds were switched off last night or earlier this morning? 

  6. 14 hours ago, Cyclecar said:

    When we joined the EEC in 1974, it was as it said on the tin - economic. As such, you can always negotiate with a businessman. When it rolled over (without any of its citizens having a vote...) into the EU it became a political union, and you can negotiate with a politician. However, it has now solidified as a totally bureaucratic organisation. You cannot negotiate with a bureaucrat - they say what the rules are, and that's it. Trying to negotiate with all the Barniers is futile. They have their position, you agree with it or no agreement. They will keep telling you to move, but never devaite themselves. I don't know why we keep talking. 

    Simplistic and quite uninformed nonsense. 


    Free history lesson from a LSE professor

  7. All this talk about the time taken by the EU to appraise the vaccine and give Pfizer its approval is really cute, considering the massive differential in infection and mortality rates between the UK and most of the EU27 countries. 


    Given the fact that it has sod all to do with Brexit (save for the dumbo straw-manning of the past few pages), it's done a rather nice job of distracting from the elephant in the room: the operational update to the UK economy in 2 weeks' time, when the UK finds itself outside the CU and SM overnight and, in logistic terms, behind even Russia (long experienced with customs processing) and Turkey (in the CU).


    A deal cannot solve that problem, now or next year, unless it brings the UK into the CU (which means, a BRINO deal).

  8. In 2019, the UK had more foodbanks (1200 official by Trussell Trust, est.2/3rds of UK FBs = 1800 est.) than McDonald and Burger King (1249 + 500) restaurants.


    In 2019, the UK turned down £22m of EU aid offered to help funding food banks.


    At end 2019, the British electorate returned Tories to governance for the 4th time running since 2010, with a stonking 80 seat majority and Boris Johnson at the top.


    That is all.

  9. 49 minutes ago, West 77 said:

    The very fact none of the EU 27 bloc have chosen to fast track approval is evidence being a member of the EU means bureaucracy is a disadvantage of being member.  (...)

    I take it from that comment, that you don't export anything, nor have much experience of international trade outside the Single Market.


    Don't worry, though: deal or no deal, and irrespective of tariff-free trading getting agreed, as a third party country outside the CU/SM you're about to get schooled about what massive bureaucracy really is -and its cost- very soon :twisted:


    Big boy pants time, now.

  10. 15 minutes ago, West 77 said:

    The consensus at the time was that David Cameron had wasted his time and air miles travelling all over the EU trying to get meaningful concessions from the EU for UK and getting the EU to reform.  It's not fake news and I don't attempt to rewrite history. Perhaps you can enlighten me with a list of the reforms the EU brought in before the EU referendum vote because David Cameron stated long before his intention was to see the UK remain in a reformed EU.  

    Perhaps you yourself can enlighten me, as to why should a collective of 28 countries (-then, 27 nowadays) "reform" just because the UK asks?


    And reform further after 2015, after giving the UK just about everything which its Prime Minister had asked for?


    Have you learned nothing in the past 5 years?


    UNICEF is going to start feeding British kids this winter. UNICEF! And yet, the UK would presume to dictate to the rest of the world, in your worldview? 

  11. Don't panic buy as such, but it would be wise to buy a little more very long term food supplies with every shop over the next 2 to 3  weeks. Dried foods and tinned stuff.


    Tracking logistics people's comments atm, the problem isn't so much the clogged supply chains now (because every last UK business is trying to stock up in readiness for January), as ever more EU suppliers refusing to take new UK orders now as well, until the situation -in particular operational customs requirements and procedures- clears up acc.to whether there is a deal or not.


    TL;DR: shelves are unlikely to get bare over the next few weeks, because there's still so much stuff backed up in logistics and slowly arriving...but with nothing getting loaded and then freighted starting in a couple weeks' time, shelves might start to get bare thereafter.

  12. 36 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

    It's what they voted for.

    At the last GE in December 2019, I believe that Johnson had promised them matched funding? 


    So if I recall correctly, then no, it's not what they voted for the last time around...


    ...but well, it's Johnson and the current breed of nationalist 'Tories'. So it cannot come as a surprise.


    Lots more of this to come. 4+ years of warning about it all, and all for nothing.

  13. 1 hour ago, andyofborg said:

    No government for the last 40 years has cared a great deal about these regions, I doubt they will start now,

    Cornwall will be getting 5% of the amount that it was getting from the EU, according to a Welsh councillor quoted in yesterday's The New European.


    It asked £700m over 10 years to make up for the EU Objective One shortfall (£765m since 1999). It will be getting £1.8m in the first year, out of the national £220m Growth Deal.



  14. 5 hours ago, nightrider said:

    I think thats the issue - any deal is better than no deal. Perhaps why Boris seems to have caved on following equivalence. How long until he gives them fishing too?

    The EU27 will let the UK have fishing, if that secures the deal with LPF and an (edit: unilateral) operational mechanism to enforce it.


    But the UK really should not bank on the EU27 letting it string them along until 23:59 on 31 December: the EU Parliament will absolutely not let itself be railroaded about it, like Parliament was, and "no deal is better than a bad deal" has been getting a lot of traction fast on this side of the Channel lately (the irony!)


    Edit 2: sounds like it's too late, 4 biggest MEP groups (EPP, S&D, Renew and Greens) have reportedly agreed no ratification to take place in 2020. That means either short period of no deal, or technical prolongation of transition. At best.


    Anyone who follows ciaran the euro courier (@donnyc1975) on Twitter will already know what's what as regards logistics. It's particularly grim reading tonight. It's positively raining anecdotal reports of no further orders getting taken for UK delivery, and no further truck slots for love or a ton of money.



  15. 3 hours ago, nightrider said:

    Doesn't matter it seems. Barnier has just announced they will make a provisional deal to be put into use on Jan 1 and let MEP's scrutinise it later on.

    Aye, that just might work, if the EU27 stop growing harder for no deal.


    Just got to give Johnson his "big win" on fishing (0,05% of UK GDP, was it?) to placate the headbangers long enough to ram the deal through Parliament. If that's the plan, Macron should be dropping the bad cop act and most of the British media should be crowing about the EU's surrender before the week is out.


    Not sure how that's going to help Wales, Yorkshire, Tyne & Wear and -generally-'everywhere north of the Watford gap' much, in the short- to longer-term...but well, better than no deal, at any rate.

  16. 8 hours ago, Longcol said:

    He's out of his depth in a puddle.

    Never fear, the French could always find him to render assistance ;)


    This morning, the EU Parliament is putting the finishing touches to a "no deal" statement (not enough time left before year end now, to scrutinise whatever deal the UK government might accept and get Parliament to rubber-stamp in extremis), to forestall any further can kicking by Johnson's government to year end.


    So no deal and WTO advocates can get their wish at long last. Well played them. You all must be thrilled :)

  17. 37 minutes ago, RJRB said:

    Latest: I see today’s deadline has now been extended which I hope means that some semblance of sanity will prevail.

    So long as the UK does not agree to LPF with strict regulatory enforcement, it doesn't matter whether that deadline gets kicked into next week or next year.


    The EU position about LPF hasn't changed one iota since it was set as an EU red line after Theresa May's Lancaster House speech all those years ago. A deal is, and has at all times been (since December 2019), Johnson's to gift.


    Why he won't, and will instead use the 0.02% of UK GDP that is fishing as the latest excuse to stall and risk the balance of GDP, is what the Commission does not get, nor the EU27 heads of state. But well.


    The EU position will not change, either, no matter how often the UK asks, no matter what temper tantrums UK officials throw, and no matter what jingoistic rubbish imbecilic Ministers spout and do and British newspapers print.


    I just saw the 'old latest' about the RN gunboats, and had a bit of a chuckle: I think France could start a nice scam here, and keep sending fishing and refugee boats, so it can keep making more and more British gunboats, wherein the fishermen corsaires get subsidized from the boat-building contracts :D

  18. 53 minutes ago, Anna B said:

    I so wish people had listened to jeremy Corbyn, voted Labour, and gained the opportunity to vote again:

    a) on the actual deal negotiated,

    b) leave without a deal,

    c) or remain in the EU.

    Instead they fell for Boris' 'Get Brexit Done' rhetoric and his so called 'oven ready deal' which of course turned out to be nothing of the sort.


    The original referendum was a simple in/out affair, with very little emphasis on 'a deal' being necessary at all, or even desirable, in which case we should have left the EU straight away. The problem has always been the closeness of the result, almost 50/50, which, IMO isn't decisive enough for such an important issue, and was also very confused over party affilliations. I think a vote now, would be far more decisive.


    As for the deal Boris is trying to negotiate, well I understand we already had a good deal, so trying to negotiate a new one it would have to be pretty spectacular, or give us many of the freedoms to trade outside the EU to be worth 5 years of wrangling.

    More likely is we will leave with no deal, having totally wasted the time which should have been spent planning the  necessary measures to ensure a smooth transition to WTO standards. 


    Once again Boris has created chaos.



    This post is so full of confusion, remnants of Vote Leave lies and lack of knowledge, I genuinely don't know where to start with it.


    Perhaps by highlighting in bold, the (actual) root cause of the whole bin fire of the past 4+ years.


    Experts tried to explain before the referendum, and ever since, why the bin fire was a certainty in case of Brexit (in whichever form - this lack of definition pre-referendum being part of the root cause), because there never was, and never could be, anything simple about the UK leaving the EU. Whether overnight, or weeks or months or years later.


    But you had enough of experts then, and you still have enough of experts now.


    So. This is the result of dismissing experts, and continuing instead to favour the charlatans telling you to ignore these experts.


    Corbyn and his pandering/husbanding of Lexiters for years, is just as much of a cause of the bin fire. Starmer, continuing his strategy of letting the Tories own all of Brexit, is no better. So when you start looking up recipes for grass cuttings, remember that Labour consistently voted for Brexit in the House of Commons, and did nothing to halt it before the end. Of course, that doesn't absolve the Tories from causing it in the first place, nor from eventually making it the worst that it could be.

  19. 54 minutes ago, Ridgewalk said:

    Will there be any benefits from leaving the EU ? Someone must have an answer ? 

    For europeans (27), certainly.


    Mostly in terms of ridding european politics from interference and general dumbing-down by  Farage, Widdecombe and the rest of the Kipper MEPs ; and ridding EU decision-making from British exceptionalism.


    The extra trading and taxable value from relocated businesses is nice too, though not exactly a game-changer for the recipient countries. Except maybe for Ireland, due to scale (Dublin got the lion's share of business brexoded out of the City).


    I don't think these balance the loss of UK contributions outright, short-term, but then these contributions weren't that much overall (i.e. when offset against EU spend-back in UK regions and other UK cost centers, e.g. EMA) and that loss is already long factored and costed into the EU budget for 2020-2027.


    A bit of light was recently cast about Johnson and VdL's meeting:




    Gossip, but wholly unsurprising if even half of it is true.


    Lambs to the slaughter, led by a donkey :(

  20. I'll go out on a limb here, but I think most of the surrendering is done by law-abiding types who have come into possessing items like that by inheritance or chance.


    It's pointless giving cash to them, they're doing it out of civism, as right-thinking members of society.


    What you won't get, is precisely the kind of people who make the street unsafe, to hand in their weapons.


    So it should be spun out as an amnesty (hand it in and you won't get done; don't and have the book thrown at you if we catch you), no cash involved.

  21. 58 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

    And that essential travel is going to be harder as well, certainly if you're a haulier who goes to the EU. We need up to 10k ECMT certificates for UK hauliers and we - as a country that's not in the EU - get allocated a certain amount and we've been allocated 2000.

    The issue of ECMTs required by UK hauliers post-Brexit and of their highly-insufficient numbers relative to the size of the (international, EU-bound) UK haulage industry was raised in pre-referendum debates, and time and again since the referendum, and routinely dismissed as 'Project Fear'.


    Now that there is no get-out-of-jail extension mechanism left to invoke, and the non-extendable deadline is upon the UK, and the ECMTs have been issued (-as predicted) in far, far, far insufficients numbers (-as predicted), some people notice. 'Some', because most people will only notice the after-effects of it, as falling export sales and reduced  purchasing choices.


    Exact same story with the EU unilateral air & freight travel measures (dusted off and-) triggered by Von der Leyden this morning, in readiness for no-deal. 


    They're no different to the EU unilateral measures announced prior to every no-deal cliff edge since 2018, that were variously and alternatively dubbed 'mini deals', 'Swiss-type deal', 'can-kicking', etc. (they're nothing of the sort, just initiatives useful to the EU, and only "live" so long as the UK reciprocates, else immediate suspension).


    But now that they're coming online, because there's no more extension to expect and no-deal looks a dead cert, some people notice.


    Don't expect much sympathy on the Continent or Ireland. Mind you, not that much of the Continent cares, tbh: finding news of Johnson's meeting with Von der Leyden was rather the proverbial needle in a haystack of other news. Like much of anything to do with Brexit for the last year or two.

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