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Posts posted by L00b

  1. 53 minutes ago, Anna B said:

    I so wish people had listened to jeremy Corbyn, voted Labour, and gained the opportunity to vote again:

    a) on the actual deal negotiated,

    b) leave without a deal,

    c) or remain in the EU.

    Instead they fell for Boris' 'Get Brexit Done' rhetoric and his so called 'oven ready deal' which of course turned out to be nothing of the sort.


    The original referendum was a simple in/out affair, with very little emphasis on 'a deal' being necessary at all, or even desirable, in which case we should have left the EU straight away. The problem has always been the closeness of the result, almost 50/50, which, IMO isn't decisive enough for such an important issue, and was also very confused over party affilliations. I think a vote now, would be far more decisive.


    As for the deal Boris is trying to negotiate, well I understand we already had a good deal, so trying to negotiate a new one it would have to be pretty spectacular, or give us many of the freedoms to trade outside the EU to be worth 5 years of wrangling.

    More likely is we will leave with no deal, having totally wasted the time which should have been spent planning the  necessary measures to ensure a smooth transition to WTO standards. 


    Once again Boris has created chaos.



    This post is so full of confusion, remnants of Vote Leave lies and lack of knowledge, I genuinely don't know where to start with it.


    Perhaps by highlighting in bold, the (actual) root cause of the whole bin fire of the past 4+ years.


    Experts tried to explain before the referendum, and ever since, why the bin fire was a certainty in case of Brexit (in whichever form - this lack of definition pre-referendum being part of the root cause), because there never was, and never could be, anything simple about the UK leaving the EU. Whether overnight, or weeks or months or years later.


    But you had enough of experts then, and you still have enough of experts now.


    So. This is the result of dismissing experts, and continuing instead to favour the charlatans telling you to ignore these experts.


    Corbyn and his pandering/husbanding of Lexiters for years, is just as much of a cause of the bin fire. Starmer, continuing his strategy of letting the Tories own all of Brexit, is no better. So when you start looking up recipes for grass cuttings, remember that Labour consistently voted for Brexit in the House of Commons, and did nothing to halt it before the end. Of course, that doesn't absolve the Tories from causing it in the first place, nor from eventually making it the worst that it could be.

  2. 54 minutes ago, Ridgewalk said:

    Will there be any benefits from leaving the EU ? Someone must have an answer ? 

    For europeans (27), certainly.


    Mostly in terms of ridding european politics from interference and general dumbing-down by  Farage, Widdecombe and the rest of the Kipper MEPs ; and ridding EU decision-making from British exceptionalism.


    The extra trading and taxable value from relocated businesses is nice too, though not exactly a game-changer for the recipient countries. Except maybe for Ireland, due to scale (Dublin got the lion's share of business brexoded out of the City).


    I don't think these balance the loss of UK contributions outright, short-term, but then these contributions weren't that much overall (i.e. when offset against EU spend-back in UK regions and other UK cost centers, e.g. EMA) and that loss is already long factored and costed into the EU budget for 2020-2027.


    A bit of light was recently cast about Johnson and VdL's meeting:




    Gossip, but wholly unsurprising if even half of it is true.


    Lambs to the slaughter, led by a donkey :(

  3. I'll go out on a limb here, but I think most of the surrendering is done by law-abiding types who have come into possessing items like that by inheritance or chance.


    It's pointless giving cash to them, they're doing it out of civism, as right-thinking members of society.


    What you won't get, is precisely the kind of people who make the street unsafe, to hand in their weapons.


    So it should be spun out as an amnesty (hand it in and you won't get done; don't and have the book thrown at you if we catch you), no cash involved.

  4. 58 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

    And that essential travel is going to be harder as well, certainly if you're a haulier who goes to the EU. We need up to 10k ECMT certificates for UK hauliers and we - as a country that's not in the EU - get allocated a certain amount and we've been allocated 2000.

    The issue of ECMTs required by UK hauliers post-Brexit and of their highly-insufficient numbers relative to the size of the (international, EU-bound) UK haulage industry was raised in pre-referendum debates, and time and again since the referendum, and routinely dismissed as 'Project Fear'.


    Now that there is no get-out-of-jail extension mechanism left to invoke, and the non-extendable deadline is upon the UK, and the ECMTs have been issued (-as predicted) in far, far, far insufficients numbers (-as predicted), some people notice. 'Some', because most people will only notice the after-effects of it, as falling export sales and reduced  purchasing choices.


    Exact same story with the EU unilateral air & freight travel measures (dusted off and-) triggered by Von der Leyden this morning, in readiness for no-deal. 


    They're no different to the EU unilateral measures announced prior to every no-deal cliff edge since 2018, that were variously and alternatively dubbed 'mini deals', 'Swiss-type deal', 'can-kicking', etc. (they're nothing of the sort, just initiatives useful to the EU, and only "live" so long as the UK reciprocates, else immediate suspension).


    But now that they're coming online, because there's no more extension to expect and no-deal looks a dead cert, some people notice.


    Don't expect much sympathy on the Continent or Ireland. Mind you, not that much of the Continent cares, tbh: finding news of Johnson's meeting with Von der Leyden was rather the proverbial needle in a haystack of other news. Like much of anything to do with Brexit for the last year or two.

  5. 10 hours ago, rudds1 said:

    Yes it’s on eBay.  Still for sale though if your interested 😂😂Now found one at £8000  buy it tonight and have it delivered this Friday. What a bargain   Or there is another for a nice round £1000000 if you have the money 


    I gave up on eBay years ago (my eBay account is 23 years old, can you believe it?!? :shocked:) and although I haven't given up on videogames, I am long long cured of early-adopter syndrome.


    Sega's Dreamcast is the last console that I bought at launch for the launch RRP, and the most I've ever spent on any videogame item was £500 + courrier, for a full-size Konami GTI Club arcade cabinet (upright, however, not sitdown) ;)


    If I wasn't shopping for a house atm, I'd consider treating myself to an original Out Run arcade cab (midi upright, my favourite). Significantly more £s for one of those in good working order, relative to a scalpy PS5...and a minter will be in touching distance of that £8k you mention.


    But same with that sort of stuff, nowadays: never on eBay.

  6. The EU's entry rules for 3rd country nationals, as modified by the Covid emergency, apply to the British in UK from 1st January. 


    Basically, no more travel will be permitted from the UK to the EU in 3 weeks' time, unless the visit is deemed essential, until the UK has met the EU's healthcare (Covid-related) standards and checks thresholds.


    Norway and a few more countries confirmed yesterday that they would turn British around at ports and airports, so plan any overseas travel scheduled on the other side of the festive period with care, and check your travel insurance small print.


    In other news, last night's dinner meeting between Johnson-Frost and Van der Leyden-Barnier did not go too well, according to Knuessenberg. No real surprise.

  7. Thanks for a well considered post, Westie1889.


    I'll not reply (too much-) further here, as it would be off-topic and there's a dedicated Brexit thread, but it's just nice to read someone's pragmatic assessment and thoughtful considerations :)


    But background for background, I'm in (heavily-exported) international legal services, and there weren't any opportunities to any form of Brexit pre-ref,  and there still aren't 4 years on. Just an unavoidable reduction in service capacity (likewise in the associated turnover from exporting same), by automatically losing rights of audience through exiting the EU jurisdictional framework. Hence decision to Brexode after the Art.50 letter in 2017, when the UK Sheffield firm I was working in, wasn't bothered about mitigating the predictable impact.


    I''ve been on Continent 2.5 year now, and right now we're taking over the EU work of all UK branches of our international group (one of top 5 in UK in our field), and getting an EU27 colleague parachuted in from a Scottish office next week, to help with the workload. They left it a tad late :D


  8. 30 minutes ago, Westie1889 said:

    With the new EU - Japan trade deal the forecast is that long-term all car production will switch back to the Japanese factories as there is no need to have a factory within the EU to avoid tariffs now so it’s probably a matter of when not if Honda closes the plant. Brexit will probably accelerate it if there is no deal.

    Long-term, there will not be the volume of demand for personal cars, that there was once was and still is to some extent. At least in Western Europe and the US. Personal transportation is getting further commoditized as ICE is transitioning to EV and personal cost of ownership keeps rocketing upwards.


    Brexit outside the CU/SM will accelerate the decline of automative industry (-currently under way already)  in the UK regardless of whether there is a deal, today or next week or next year.


    It's JIT logistics permitted by CU/SM membership, and mothership investment, that keep (kept) UK assembly lines competitive. Once CU/SM membership went out the window as regards the UK's post-Brexit life, that race was run.


    Likely UK plants will gradually shrink to service the domestic market (and the RoI), then eventually shrink further as they change hands time and again in DeLorean- and Grenadier-like specialist/low volume ventures.


    But we digress. About hoarding or panic buying: this late in the day, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy tbh. Not for bare essentials like those already mentioned by Baron99 above, but for the choice of alternatives, and nice-to-haves.


    If you are on any specific meds that are imported into the UK from EU manufacturing sites or warehouses, however, maybe get worried enough to enquire with your GP/pharmacist...


    ...keeping in mind that you might not get the truth, and nothing-but-the-whole-truth, in reply.

  9. 10 hours ago, Delbow said:

    This really out to be a wake up call to those who voted for Brexit, especially in Wales. Ratcliffe has said about the German plant that it will give him access to a "first class workforce" - that means you're second class at best in his eyes, Welsh workers. But anyone who voted for Brexit has done their bit already, you're expendable now that it's happening, and it's time for the rich to clean up. 

    Where this particular one is concerned, the wake-up call should have been when Ratcliffe moved to Monaco earlier this year...


    ...but really, there's been *loads more* wake-up calls like that since June 2016.


    So no, I very much doubt that this will cause any more waking up, than the earlier ones did. Brexiteers are big on belief, not so much on connecting dots. It'll just give them one more 'reason' to hate the French (Hambach is in France, close to the German border).

  10. 1 hour ago, tinfoilhat said:

    They're all made to order so they won't have any unsold right hand drive cars sitting around , unless dealerships and car supermarkets have bought a load preregistered ones (same for most companies now i think) and I suspect they've bought as many as they're going to.


    Try and find a show Richard hammond did on the VW factory, very interesting.

    Well, about that (JIT, really)...in today's automotive news -still- Honda claims that its Swindon plant may begin to be affected by blocked UK ports as early as tomorrow.


    Arguably less to do with Brexit (UK is still in WA for a few weeks) than with Covid (-causing CN containers to 'lag'), but a useful illustration of -potential- future performance.


    Saying that, German couriers Hermes, DPD and a few more have now discontinued (or are discontinuing at end of week) services to the UK for non-business users, and there are increasing ads from EU SMEs for 'last orders shipping to the UK ever' on account of Brexit (red tape starting 1/1/21 not worth their while).

  11. 48 minutes ago, rudds1 said:

    Just seen on for sale at £1999. Be interesting to see if anyone is foolish enough to buy that one 

    Is that on eBay?


    Because scalper-organised and -run shilling is rife at the best of times, but never more so than for ultra-high-demand items like e.g. PS5s on the run-up to Xmas.


    1 (make-believe) 'sale' at £2k, with Xmas tic-toc-clock and delivery times dwindling down, and suddenly that 100%-150% markup on the RRP is starting to look like a reyt bargin ;)


    Like others have posted, that can only be eradicated by self-starving demand. So don't buy them.

  12. 19 minutes ago, carosio said:

    True, academic now and leaving signs seals and delivers it, but several of the deals mentioned were not cut and dried, as highlighted by this EU Analysis  opinion.



    It's been pointless discussing what Cameron fetched back from Brussels in February 2016, ever since Theresa May dropped the Article 50 letter back in March 2017, because the UK was garanteed to leave the EU by operation of law from that point forward.


    And still more pointless, when the UK ceased being an EU member state altogether, nearly 3 years later, this past January.


    Those get-outs were still not enough for the UK. So much so, that the UK wanted to leave the EU 4 months later and voted to do just that. Then the UK left. The end.


    Not sure what else there is to say about these 'gets' from Cameron, tbh. More was unrealistic, for the exact same reasons the UK-EU deal has proven to be anything *but* that "easiest deal in history", and which are the exact same reasons the EU would rather no deal than a bad deal (-too). 

  13. 1 hour ago, carosio said:

    What were the other things?

    Have a read


    All academic now. Those were 'gets' whilst the UK was still in, and the relationship hadn't soured at all, relative to the extent that it has over the last 4 years.


    By now, the UK would be very lucky to escape Schengen and the € if it rejoined soon...but then, by the time re-joining gets discussed to any realistic extent, the likelihood is that it won't even the 'UK' any more anyway.


    What price political hubris.


    EDIT- and looking at aftermath of Von der Leyden / Johnson phone call, it looks like Johnson's bluff did not work:


    With @BorisJohnson, we took stock of the negotiations. The conditions for an agreement are not there due to remaining differences on critical issues. 
    We asked our Chief Negotiators to prepare an overview of the remaining differences to be discussed in person in the coming days.


    Curtains, I think.

  14. 1 hour ago, ads36 said:

    unless you work in manufacturing, or agriculture, or finance.

    and unless you are poor, according to the British government ('s latest analysis).


    It's looking pretty grim in today's news, after the Guardian's leaks over the weekend alleging a deal proved unreliable.


    After Barnier's message to EU ambassadors this morning, if the UK government re-tables the objectionable clauses in the draft Internal Market Bill tonight, then it would be curtains on chances of a deal this side of 1st January.


    Which would actually be best for all concerned, I think, as it would allow some weeks (or months, even) of quiet, to take some heat back out of the whole situation.

  15. 8 hours ago, RJRB said:

    Totally agree.

    Williamsons comments are totally crass and misjudged.

    Jingoism always grates with me ,and at a time when I hope that the best brains in the word are combining to get us all out of this mess,then Williamson ,Rees Mogg and Hancock should forget the political point scoring both domestically and internationally.


    International political point-scoring by Williamson, JRM, Hancock, Patel <etc> is one that you really don't need to worry about, I'm sorry to say.


    In case you haven't heard (because there doesn't seem to be much Brexit reporting in UK media lately, never mind factual), the negotiating long knives are currently coming out in France, The Netherlands, Denmark and a few others: they're unhappy with how easy Barnier is taking it on Frost and the UK, and would rather the deal negotiations get back-burnered into next year. I don't need to go further about that one, I think.


    Williamsons' jingoistic optics are seen and understood for what they are might be, i.e. helping Johnson with some extra political capital at home to get a deal past the ERG headbangers, same as all the other jingoistic optics since Lancaster House in 2017.


    But you're in serious danger of getting written off everywhere now, especially now that Biden is incoming to the White House and Trump's "clout" has been made redundant. The EU27, with UK-bordering countries ahead (France, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany), stayed fairly quiet for the past 4 years and just got on with adapting to a Brexited UK: they don't need a deal now, anywhere near as much as they may have needed one 4, or even 2, years ago. E.g. there's been tons of new ferry lines opened between Ireland and the Continent, towards making the UK redundant as a landbridge, and the rest is in keeping.

  16. 4 minutes ago, West 77 said:

    The EMA won't have any extra data to look at. The  MHRA started analysing the data available much earlier than the EMA.  Less  bureaucracy and the MHRA being the first regulator out of the starting block are the main reasons why the UK regulators have made their decision  quicker than the EU (EMA) and the US.

    Why? Because the UK won't share it?


    That's OK, Pfizer will.

  17. 38 minutes ago, whiteowl said:

    I appreciate that legally, I was thinking more of the reaction of the British population, many of which have already expressed scepticism over any vaccine.

    Would the British population (at large) even understand the significance of that disconnect betwern the MHRA and the EMA, if it happened?


    And even if it did, with the volumes of snake oil that the British population has been ingesting for over 5 years, still without any heads rolling anywhere...


    ....I really don't think you have anything to fear about a hypothetical reaction of the British population: all divided that it stands, and notwithstanding how knowledgeable much/most of it may well be, it's still as apathetic as ever.


    I really don't mean any disrespect here. But after the past few years, between Greenfell, Windrush, Brexit, Covid mismanagement, PPE cronyism, Parliament abuse, outright lying to the Queen, explosion in food banks, UC fiasco, <etc, etc, etc> I genuinely have no idea what it would take to provoke a reaction of any significance amongst the British.

  18. 12 minutes ago, whiteowl said:

    It does raise an interesting question of what happens if the EMA rejects the Pfizer vaccine after the MHRA has approved it. Can't see it happening but it would create a few fireworks.

    Nothing would happen. The MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine early, under a national emergency prerogative independently of the EMA (moreover, from which it becomes fully and permanently decoupled -in statutory and jurisdictional terms- in 28 days' time when the WA and its effects cease).


    32 minutes ago, RJRB said:

    It does of course speak volumes for the value of the widest possible cooperation in medicine and numerous other fields which Brexit supporters appear happy to put at some risk.

    Certainly. But that notion is completely academic by now.

    22 minutes ago, Baron99 said:

    My bold. 


    As you say, it has sod all to do with Brexit but as I stated earlier, go back to the pages when agencies were starting to come together to begin the prep work on a vaccine & you'll find that it was Remainers who were jumping back on the 'Project Fear' bandwagon, trying to link vaccine manufacturing in the EU with the UK having left the EU & the UK being at the back of a mythological queue for any vaccine manufactured in the EU. 


    Scare tactics once again.  Makes me wonder will 'Project Fear' be finally wound up in 28 days? 

    I guess we'll all find out soon enough, not long to wait now :)

  20. 7 minutes ago, West 77 said:

    It's likely the US will give approval for the Pfizer vaccine to be given to the public before the EU according to the article due to EU bureaucracy.  I hope the delay in the European regulators decision making won't lead to individual EU countries waiting a long time before receiving the Pfizer vaccine once it has been finally approved for use.  

    You concern is very kind, but unfounded. Honestly, don't worry. Just get those vaccinations going.


    The more and the sooner the UK does, the sooner the FDA and the EMA have the extra test data needed for their own respective approval procedures.


    Everybody wins, which surely is the best outcome. Well, where Covid is concerned. Which has sod all to do with Brexit, least of all after 1st January of course.



  21. 15 minutes ago, West 77 said:

    If anything that article supports the opinions of individual Government ministers that the UK's  decision to leave the EU  enables the UK to be the first country to give out a Covid vaccine to the public. If I lived in one of the 27 EU countries I would be concerned at the delay in getting a vaccine approved for use after the UK has already given the go ahead.

    Well, luckily for you, you don't. 


    You go right on with that early mass vaccination, well done UK :)

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