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Everything posted by L00b

  1. Can I take it that you are aware of Andrew Neil's "GB News", Britain's very own Fox News-alike green-lit with Legatum's £60m investment this week? Thank you for a thoughtful post (and thought-provoking for some, hopefully). Last night was the US 21st century version of Germany's 20th century Beer Hall putsch. And it's looking like it was planned, there are several geolocated and timestamped shots of different insurrectionists with 'Civil War 6 January' hoodies doing the rounds. Which begs still more questions about the Capitol security lapses. Too many good men are doing nothing.
  2. No. And not really. Macron is not Merkel-good on Covid, sure. But he's not Johnson-bad, by a country mile (besides not actually being in executive charge: that is Jean Castex).
  3. Exactly right, besides being a S-postcode resident very near Sheffield, and many thanks for that follow-up post, Delbow. Looks like she'd be getting vaccinated very soon if she was (back-) in the UK. But then, looking at the news as well, she'd also be (back-) under a severe lockdown , when we are actually relaxing measures here from next Monday (...not that I actually agree with that much, but well...). what to do, what to do, <sigh> At any rate, we'll continue efforts with the insurer, the Consulate and I've pinged our GP here as well.
  4. Thanks Delbow. Any guideline timescale would be useful, as I cannot be sure that we'll be able to get her vaccinated here, and that information would help us weigh up whether to try and get her back to the UK ASAP, or keep her here a while longer...or even reg' her as an immigrant if if came to it. She's a tourist with post-Brexit healthcare cover, but we cannot get any answer from her insurance about vaccination whilst over here, and that problem then lies within the context of the 90 days "clock" started on 1st Jan versus what the UK does/may do by end March in relation to travel/borders...and of course the local British consular services are proving -for now at least- as useful as t*ts on a bull.
  5. Is any timing or date information available yet for these groups? Even indicative? I have my mother in law with us here in Europe on a visit, who is turning 80 in a few weeks, and the intermixing of Brexit-related (max-) length of stay, and Covid-related logistics, are getting a tad complex!
  6. What, you mean more disappointed than in the past 4 years? I can see a lot more people disappointed than merely remain voters a few weeks into January. The current logistics nightmare and shelves getting bare up and down the country? That’s a foretaste. Trade &customs experts can explain why, if you’re bothered. They were predicting the container crisis weeks ago, likewise the current Channel bottlenecks months ago. This Tories huge increase was gained by a minority of the electorate. 37.something percent. Over 50 percent of the electorate voted for parties opposed to Brexit (Greens, LibDems, SNP, etc i.e. neither Tories not Labour). FPTP did the rest. A bit less revisionism, please.
  7. Sorry, but no. No more. 4+ years of it, now I’m all out. And tired. And disinvested. Just watching the bin fire from afar, shaking my head every now and then (eg at Dan Hannan’s peerage today) and not even bothering with the popcorn these days. Just more and more Tory politicians I wouldn’t p*** on if they were on fire. And that’s not good for my blood pressure, so I’m weaning myself from it all ever so gradually (- you may be glad to hear 😉). But I am looking forward to take stock of the Conservatives’ eventual legacy in a few years’ time. Gibraltar is looking to be joining Schengen within days, and I’d call that a result, however unintentional it may be. I expect Scotland and NI to follow well within the decade.
  8. I don't think that. But looking at where the Conservatives are taking you all, still without any opposition -political or otherwise- and with ever less accountability over time, one simply cannot help but wonder at times. This is why I said "it would not surprise me", instead of asserting the notion as fact.
  9. No different to travel limitations eatlier this year? It has nothing (much) to do with those travel limitations earlier this year. Covid did not create those queues. UK businesses did, with driving up their stockholding of EU <whatever> in anticipation of the end of the withdrawal agreement, in the continuing absence of Conservative governance about operational customs procedures in...<checks notes now>... 9 days' time. I don't remember 1500 lorries stuck in Kent at any time earlier this year, and that stack was not caused by yesterday's border lockdown: there have been lorry queues of miles upon miles on the A16 in France and the M20 in Kent for a good couple of weeks at least. It is early days, that said, you are right. Just the new normal settling in. This is the Conservatives thread, not the Brexit Consequences thread. So it is apt to remind that this whole logistics bin fire is on them: this is what "having enough of experts" and "****** business" does to a country. Were this the Labour thread, it would be apt to also remind, that this is what not opposing the ruling party, but letting it run unhinged and unchecked, does to a country. Hey-ho. It is what it is.
  10. There have been many interviews of EU drivers in those queues on both sides of the Channel over the past few days, on French and German TV news. And interviews of haulage managing directors, I saw variously French, Dutch and Estonian ones. All are saying the same thing: until there is clarity on import-export procedures between the EU27 and the UK, they just won't go to the UK any more. There's enough haulage demand intra-EU to not waste €s having trucks sitting still for days on end. So I suppose that you are right in one respect, they don't want any future delays. But they're not coming to the UK's rescue, any more than German car manufacturers, Italian prosecco bottlers <etc>. I would not be surprised in the least if such interviews/news don't get broadcast in the UK. I understand that the M20 webcam feeds were switched off last night or earlier this morning?
  11. Simplistic and quite uninformed nonsense. Free history lesson from a LSE professor.
  12. All this talk about the time taken by the EU to appraise the vaccine and give Pfizer its approval is really cute, considering the massive differential in infection and mortality rates between the UK and most of the EU27 countries. Given the fact that it has sod all to do with Brexit (save for the dumbo straw-manning of the past few pages), it's done a rather nice job of distracting from the elephant in the room: the operational update to the UK economy in 2 weeks' time, when the UK finds itself outside the CU and SM overnight and, in logistic terms, behind even Russia (long experienced with customs processing) and Turkey (in the CU). A deal cannot solve that problem, now or next year, unless it brings the UK into the CU (which means, a BRINO deal).
  13. In 2019, the UK had more foodbanks (1200 official by Trussell Trust, est.2/3rds of UK FBs = 1800 est.) than McDonald and Burger King (1249 + 500) restaurants. In 2019, the UK turned down £22m of EU aid offered to help funding food banks. At end 2019, the British electorate returned Tories to governance for the 4th time running since 2010, with a stonking 80 seat majority and Boris Johnson at the top. That is all.
  14. I take it from that comment, that you don't export anything, nor have much experience of international trade outside the Single Market. Don't worry, though: deal or no deal, and irrespective of tariff-free trading getting agreed, as a third party country outside the CU/SM you're about to get schooled about what massive bureaucracy really is -and its cost- very soon Big boy pants time, now.
  15. Perhaps you yourself can enlighten me, as to why should a collective of 28 countries (-then, 27 nowadays) "reform" just because the UK asks? And reform further after 2015, after giving the UK just about everything which its Prime Minister had asked for? Have you learned nothing in the past 5 years? UNICEF is going to start feeding British kids this winter. UNICEF! And yet, the UK would presume to dictate to the rest of the world, in your worldview?
  16. Don't panic buy as such, but it would be wise to buy a little more very long term food supplies with every shop over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Dried foods and tinned stuff. Tracking logistics people's comments atm, the problem isn't so much the clogged supply chains now (because every last UK business is trying to stock up in readiness for January), as ever more EU suppliers refusing to take new UK orders now as well, until the situation -in particular operational customs requirements and procedures- clears up acc.to whether there is a deal or not. TL;DR: shelves are unlikely to get bare over the next few weeks, because there's still so much stuff backed up in logistics and slowly arriving...but with nothing getting loaded and then freighted starting in a couple weeks' time, shelves might start to get bare thereafter.
  17. At the last GE in December 2019, I believe that Johnson had promised them matched funding? So if I recall correctly, then no, it's not what they voted for the last time around... ...but well, it's Johnson and the current breed of nationalist 'Tories'. So it cannot come as a surprise. Lots more of this to come. 4+ years of warning about it all, and all for nothing.
  18. Cornwall will be getting 5% of the amount that it was getting from the EU, according to a Welsh councillor quoted in yesterday's The New European. It asked £700m over 10 years to make up for the EU Objective One shortfall (£765m since 1999). It will be getting £1.8m in the first year, out of the national £220m Growth Deal. Well.
  19. The EU27 will let the UK have fishing, if that secures the deal with LPF and an (edit: unilateral) operational mechanism to enforce it. But the UK really should not bank on the EU27 letting it string them along until 23:59 on 31 December: the EU Parliament will absolutely not let itself be railroaded about it, like Parliament was, and "no deal is better than a bad deal" has been getting a lot of traction fast on this side of the Channel lately (the irony!) Edit 2: sounds like it's too late, 4 biggest MEP groups (EPP, S&D, Renew and Greens) have reportedly agreed no ratification to take place in 2020. That means either short period of no deal, or technical prolongation of transition. At best. Anyone who follows ciaran the euro courier (@donnyc1975) on Twitter will already know what's what as regards logistics. It's particularly grim reading tonight. It's positively raining anecdotal reports of no further orders getting taken for UK delivery, and no further truck slots for love or a ton of money.
  20. Aye, that just might work, if the EU27 stop growing harder for no deal. Just got to give Johnson his "big win" on fishing (0,05% of UK GDP, was it?) to placate the headbangers long enough to ram the deal through Parliament. If that's the plan, Macron should be dropping the bad cop act and most of the British media should be crowing about the EU's surrender before the week is out. Not sure how that's going to help Wales, Yorkshire, Tyne & Wear and -generally-'everywhere north of the Watford gap' much, in the short- to longer-term...but well, better than no deal, at any rate.
  21. Never fear, the French could always find him to render assistance This morning, the EU Parliament is putting the finishing touches to a "no deal" statement (not enough time left before year end now, to scrutinise whatever deal the UK government might accept and get Parliament to rubber-stamp in extremis), to forestall any further can kicking by Johnson's government to year end. So no deal and WTO advocates can get their wish at long last. Well played them. You all must be thrilled
  22. So long as the UK does not agree to LPF with strict regulatory enforcement, it doesn't matter whether that deadline gets kicked into next week or next year. The EU position about LPF hasn't changed one iota since it was set as an EU red line after Theresa May's Lancaster House speech all those years ago. A deal is, and has at all times been (since December 2019), Johnson's to gift. Why he won't, and will instead use the 0.02% of UK GDP that is fishing as the latest excuse to stall and risk the balance of GDP, is what the Commission does not get, nor the EU27 heads of state. But well. The EU position will not change, either, no matter how often the UK asks, no matter what temper tantrums UK officials throw, and no matter what jingoistic rubbish imbecilic Ministers spout and do and British newspapers print. I just saw the 'old latest' about the RN gunboats, and had a bit of a chuckle: I think France could start a nice scam here, and keep sending fishing and refugee boats, so it can keep making more and more British gunboats, wherein the fishermen corsaires get subsidized from the boat-building contracts
  23. The current furore about Merkel and Macron rejecting Johnson's call requests is quite funny, too.
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