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L00b

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Posts posted by L00b


  1. 58 minutes ago, Tony said:

    By gum, @Carbuncleyou're probably the first person who wants to stick strictly to the thread title. We'll have to remember that when somebody mentions buses. ;) 

     

    Okay then, the consequences of Brexit. 

     

    Australian submarines and the geopolitical shift of power and trade away from the EU to the Asia Pacific region.

     

    Go! 

    And stop already 🙃

     

    That breach of AU sub contract has nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit, nor with its consequences, for France or the UK.

     

    Tellingly, France recalled its ambassadors from the US and AU, but did not recall its ambassador from London. Must be a measure of how relevant the UK is, in that “geopolitical shift”.

     

    When is the UK leaving NATO?


  2. 1 hour ago, Baron99 said:

    Here's M&S chief, Sir Archie Norman's view & its difficult not to agree with his assessment of the "Fandango of bureaucracy" with products requiring 720 pages of documentation, particularly as he states that the UK has HIGHER food standards than required by the EU & nothing has changed in those standards since we left the EU. 

     

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/brexit-eu-pointless-bureaucracy-marks-and-spencer/

     

    As Norman also states, "What we've discovered is that the European rules for governing borders at the customs union are really totally out of date and not suited for the purpose they're designed for." 

     

    Eventually, the intransigence of politicians will be sorted out by big business. 

    Not in the UK for a while yet, which is the fundamental problem.

     

    In the meantime, I can’t see European big businesses, who can export anything and everything they want to the UK without checks until July next year, whilst standard EU import/customs rules applicable to third party country (ie UK since 1/1/21) goods insulate them from UK competition, exerting any pressure on EU27 governments or Brussels to change the current situation.


  3. 1 hour ago, Tony said:

    (…)

     

    Imports from the EU to the UK are receiving few checks. This isn't a problem by all accounts. 

    So long as no-one (China, Russia, the US…) takes issue with it at the WTO.
     

    In the meantime, this smugglers’ charter situation is a huge problem for every domestic UK business undercut by competitors the world over.

    1 hour ago, Tony said:

    (…)

    Exports from the UK to the EU are subject to onerous and excessive checks. This is an unnecessary problem. 

     

    Trade is the same both ways in all day-to-day practical senses, but it appears that paperwork problems are being invented by one half of the equation

    The EU27 checks on UK goods are the exact same, as always performed in respect of goods incoming from third party countries, with the degree of scrutiny proportional to the existence and depth of any FTA.
     

    There are no paperwork problems ‘invented’, just paperwork and procedures resumed from when the UK had abandoned them 30 years ago, when the Single Market was created.

     

    Leaving the Single Market, moreover with a thin ‘Canada’-grade FTA on goods-only without rules of origin baked in (ie a ‘hard’ Brexit) and therefore precipitating this return to standard TPC goods customs paperwork and procedures, was a deliberate choice and policy of the UK.  Steadfast, when one considers how many times the UK rebuffed the EU27’s offers of time extensions and easements.
     

    Now please explain to me, why on earth should the EU stop the UK from pursuing its own sovereign policies?
     

    Then please explain to me, why on earth should the EU stop the UK from experiencing the standard, fully-predictable and fully-predicted, consequences of its own sovereign policies?


  4. 3 hours ago, BigAl1 said:

    I said elsewhere on this forum about two weeks ago when someone was bleating on about the big energy suppliers increasing prices /ripping off customers that this is exactly what was likely to happen and since then to my knowledge at least 5 suppliers have gone out of business.

     

    it is really very simple these companies have offered very low prices to get business BUT the problem is that as the energy prices rise on the wholesale market they are making a loss which they simply do not have the resources to cover the cost of continuing to meet their contracts with existing users

    Exactly this. Some suppliers may also be exiting the market early, through anticipation.

     

     

     


  5. 13 hours ago, RJRB said:

    Happy to see the back of Gavin Williamson and the demotion of Raab.Not so happy with the thought of Nadine Dorries in any position.Culture Secretary haha.

    How many jobs can Gove be given,without anyone knowing what he actually does.

    There had to be changes but nothing very inspiring that I can see.

    Johnson simply got rid of, or demoted, Ministers that have grown unpopular within the Conservative party, and given their shot to the next batch of faithfuls. That is all. The main, and only, policy is still only about keeping Johnson in power, for power’s sake.
     

    Gove’s appointment is plenty clear in that context: keep the red wall blue, by telling it everything that it wants to hear and, in the same breath, Teflon-sliding the absence of any follow-through/delivery. He’s a perfect choice.

     

    Given the state of Justice in the UK, appointing Raab to the MoJ is like handing the keys to a joyrider after he’s already totalled the car.

     

    As for Nadine Dorries…12 hours on, or so, I’m still LOL’ing every time I read about her appointment 😂


  6. 2 hours ago, Frans2755 said:

    That is good news and by god you need it . And it is good news that the UK is going to start patrolling the seas of the far east, it sounds expensive and for what purpose. The chinese must be shaking in their boots.

    I think everybody with a couple of grey cells, and an attention span longer than that of a goldfish, knows perfectly well who is wearing the trousers in this ‘renewed’ UK-Australia cooperation 😉

     

    As for that cancelled sub deal, no biggie, France will just sue Australia for unilateral breach of contract. Won’t be the first time, nor the last. The Aussies can always (try and-) have a natter with Biden about who pays.


  7. 15 hours ago, altus said:

    Surely the WW2 spirit would mean rationing. Whilst that might enable more people to get (some) veg., I don't think even brexiters' wish to return to the past involves reintroducing rationing.

    <cough>

     

    I don’t think what Brexiters wish (or don’t) or, for that matter, what Remainers wish (or don’t) matters one iota to your government, I’m afraid: you’re all getting the same Brexit you’re given.


  8. We’re starting to move into the realm of “consequence of consequences”, I think.

     

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-takes-further-action-to-tackle-hgv-driver-shortage

     

    Due to the HGV driver shortage, the government have announced a number of changes in the testing system to help free up testers numbers and get HGV drivers licenced, variously including:

    • Car drivers now do not need to pass a test to drive a car plus a trailer
    • Drivers will only need to take 1 test to drive both a rigid and articulated lorry, rather than having to take 2 separate tests (spaced 3 weeks apart)
    • HGV tests will be made shorter, with the reversing exercise element removed and the uncoupling and recoupling exercise for trailer tests removed - apparently these will be tested separately by a third party
    • HGV drivers will no longer have to get a licence for a smaller vehicle before seeking a HGV licence
    • (…)

     

    Happy motoring, peeps 😉

     


  9. 9 minutes ago, West 77 said:

    Priti Patel has with held the £54 million because she knows the French can't be trusted .

     

    How about the untrustworthy French returning the hundreds of millions they have fleeced off the British taxpayer over the years which they have taken on false pretences?

    😂
     

    In the words (more or less) of Interior Minister Darmanin this week,

     

    “sit and spin, Tory boy”😏 


  10. 14 hours ago, El Cid said:

    The things is, that the Government will save money, alledged to be £350 million per week; but businesses  would suffer extra costs because the UK would no longer get favourable treatment. That is so far true, looking at EU/UK trade.

    The thing is, that government money comes from taxation, and that most of the tax collected is on business profits. A business making no profits, pays no taxes.
     

    ‘Uh-oh’, indeed.


  11. 1 hour ago, El Cid said:

    We gave the French £54 million, how many patrol boats would that buy?

    One or less, if you’re talking Navy-grade boats, fully-kitted out and crewed.

     

    Actually the UK has not pay that yet.

     

    The UK undertook to pay that, as contribution towards (continuing to-) managing illegals on French soil.
     

    But then Patel, just now, changed that undertaking to “we’ll only pay on results”,

     and defined such results as “stopping 3 boats out of 4”…whilst admitting in the same breadth that France had stopped 50% of the boats already (which is therefore a 50% result, any which way you want want to look at it), before any payment.

     

    So, how about 50% of that £54m, then? No?
     

    Alright, how about the French stop 0% of the boats, and Patel keeps her money instead? Much cheaper for the French taxpayers that way…and there’s an election coming up soon.


  12. 21 hours ago, El Cid said:

    The Conservatives will just relax the rules, so that the water companies can still make ££££££

    “will”? They just have, that was the link.
     

    Same cause-and-effect (Brexit-and-consequence) situation, as the government’s recent relaxing of health & safety-based rules for HGV drivers.

     

    There are plenty more instances like this, that are boring/less newsworthy (this one is the pointy end of the tiny surfaced bit of the ‘Brexit & chemicals’ iceberg), and still more yet-to-come, as consequences keep arising, rippling and compounding in all sorts of ways, predicted and not.

     

    [Some of the ‘Brexit & chemicals’ iceberg was forecast in the government’s Yellowhammer plan…but, ironically, wrongly so: that “relax sewer/water discharge rules in case of chemicals shortage” was contingency-planned for a no deal Brexit, yet we’re seeing it happen notwithstanding the UK/EU deal 😬]


  13. 12 hours ago, Baron99 said:

    Either we spend the money returning everyone back to France, (& Belgium & Holland.  You two shouldn't be exempt), as the last safe country people have come from. 

    The UK cannot legally return any asylum seeker/refugee/immigrant to any country on the Continent, without the agreement of the country in question, unless the returnee is a national of that country. No matter how much money the UK throws at it.
     

    That is why deportation flights operate on a per-country (-destination) basis.

    12 hours ago, Baron99 said:

    Alternatively, set up a migrant processing centre in the British Embassy in Paris where, you'll get a decision as to whether the criteria is met to consider people as either genuine asylum cases, which we accept or economic migrants which we won't.  Again, anyone not using this route, will not be accepted into Britain.  It'd would also benefit the genuine migrants as they wouldn't have to pay people smugglers. 

    UK embassies already do that (process asylum requests locally) the world over, indeed it is the approach recommended by the HO to would-be refugees (and in the news again very recently, for Afghans ‘with UK ties’ escaped to Pakistan).

    12 hours ago, Baron99 said:

    Let's see how the Paris reacts when the 'jungles' along their northern beaches are relocated to the Bois de Boulogne? 

    There have been such ‘jungles’ in Paris for years already, as staging points before moving onto the northwest coast. They’re usually coalesced about pillars under sections of the Périphérique. You can’t have been in/around Paris much, nor for years and longer, if you ain’t ever seen any.

     

    They’re “cleaned up” (and illegals rounded up, processed, granted asylum or deported, etc)  at least as frequently as the camps in and around Calais.


  14. 1 hour ago, Delayed said:

    Summary : EU experience nothing bad and UK experience all negative consequences. 

     

    Or an even more simplified version of all of Loobs posts past and future:

     

    EU good

    UK bad

     

    You know, I would offer to use shorter words and sentences for you, if only you gave the slightest impression of comprehending complex issues and wanting to engage about them.

     

    🙃


  15. 1 hour ago, the_bloke said:

    But Europe was suffering from a lack of drivers, so it is relevant - it's context. As has been pointed out, the problem existed before Brexit, so the only point worth making in this thread is that the U.K. itself is suffering from a loss of 20k drivers, the other losses are not related to Brexit or indeed not just a U.K. problem. 

     

    https://www.globalcoldchainnews.com/driver-shortage-is-pan-european/

    Much as it did for the UK until 01/01/21, the Single Market still facilitates the leveraging of supply chains across the EU27 with any willing Romanian, Hungarian, Polish, Latvian (etc) HGV drivers and owner-operators, with minimal paperwork and red tape, and without any of the red tape put back in place between the UK as a third country and the EU as of 01/01/21.
     

    Put simply, it’s cabotage as usual all across the EU27, with all HGV resources used to the full and with minimal red tape. /EDIT for what I mean in practice: in the EU27, a Romanian HGV has no difficulty picking loads of <anything> <anywhere on/along a route and back again> to keep himself going with minimal downtime over <however long between returns-to-base>. Covid or not, that was also true/also applied the UK until 01/01/21, and UK supply chains had been leveraging it to the max for decades. The UK brexiting outside the Single Market put a legal/regulatory stop to it, besides the fact that UK export loads to the EU27 have been very few and far between since then. But it still runs as before across the EU27. /EDIT.

     

    So that shortage of drivers in the EU27 would only have relevance (-for the UK, as regards its domestic haulage capacity) if the UK had not brexited, wherein British supply chains were disrupted only by that shortage of drivers, and were competing with other EU27 supply chains for capacity on an even ‘red tape’ keel, rather than be disrupted by the myriad further factors borne from decoupling the UK economy from the Single Market overnight.

     

    British haulage professionals, freight forwarders, customs agents and all sorts of other logistics experts who have been at that particular coalface for years and decades (including pre-Single Market days), had been warning about exactly this supply chain shock/crisis to come in the UK for the last 5 years. They’d been summarily dismissed as ‘Project Fear’ for just as long. Hey-ho.

    <shrug>


  16. 39 minutes ago, the_bloke said:

    Europe has been suffering from a shortage of drivers for years. This article is from 2018, before the pandemic.

     

    https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2018/dec/truck-driver-shortage-crisis-now-spreading-across-the-whole-of-europe

    It certainly has, and the 20,000+ Brexoded drivers have been a godsend 🤗

     

    I’ve mentioned it before: short-term, the core issue is the end of cabotage (by EU27 drivers in the UK) since 01/01/21 because of Brexit.

     

    Put simply, that was an overnight loss of logistic capacity within the UK domestic market as a whole, that cannot be replaced, mitigated or substituted, because of the type of Brexit (‘Canada plus’) chosen and implemented by the Johnson government.

     

    The shortage of drivers in the UK  is a medium-term issue. You cannot possibly solve it in the coming months, with army logistics (2000 HGV drivers, estimate) and/or tweaking health & safety parameters (mandatory rests, CPC, etc) in driving rules, and/or grandfathering bus drivers and what-have-you. That is why your MSM is only now beginning to mention ‘2 years’ longer of labour shortages to come’.

     

    Whether Europe is also suffering from a shortage of drivers, or not, is completely irrelevant: there are no empty supermarket shelves in Europe, and businesses have very little issue shipping goods (food or otherwise) across the EU27, including to/from Ireland, via the new ferry routes.


  17. 1 hour ago, West 77 said:

    The good September weather has resulted in more record numbers of economic migrants making their way from the French coast to British waters. ITV breakfast news has showed one parked up French police van patrolling 50 miles of French coast.  Apparently Priti Patel hasn't arranged transfer of the further £54 million to the untrustworthy French yet and it won't be given unless they start to make a proper effort to stop these economic migrants leaving the French coast.

    Tell you what: France can save itself significantly more than €54m, by not patrolling its northern coast for anyone who wants to leave the country, whether for the UK or wherever else.
     

    No more Sangatte, Grande-Synthe, ‘Jungle’,  etc. camps to police every other month and, with the UK exiting the scope of the Dublin Regs through Brexit, no returns either. 
     

    So keep your silver, and save yourself trust issues: win-win-win all-around 🤗


  18. There are more pressing problems than the labour crisis. 
     

    Although the ‘lorry driver’ subset of it, is quite the accelerant.

     

    Quote

    Border check update: The latest estimate on actual consignment volumes of EU food imports is THREE times higher than initial government data suggested last year. Checks at ports start next month.

    <…>


    Hull's port health authority having to recruit new vets through an agency (more expensive) because of a shortage of previously available UK-based EU national vets.

    <…>

    Most initial documentary checks on EU food imports (starting Oct 1) will be carried out pre-arrival in an attempt to avoid traffic bottlenecks at ports. Government IT system being used in new and untried.

     

    https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/1434849786868469762?s=20

     


  19. Wage inflation is across the board, not restricted to HGV drivers: from the produce itself (lack of staff picking fruits & veg, slaughtering & butchering cattle, etc > pay more to get the staff in), through to conditioning (lack of staff in food processing plants > pay more to get the staff in), warehousing (lack of staff for palletising, goods handling > pay more to get the staff in), and transporting (HGV drivers > pay more to get the staff in).
     

    Not forgetting supermarket workers themselves  (there is a recent UK Court precedent under which retail employees cannot be paid less than warehousing staff)…

     

    …and that is only the foodstuffs value/retail chain, robbing Peter (all other goods-based industries, which have their own value and supply chains, with corresponding staffing requirements…and staff expectations in terms of pay & benefits) to keep paying Paul (shareholders, of course).
     

    It does not matter whether the GBP gets stronger or devalues. The UK is headed straight for inflation, as these costs compound across supply chains across most sectors, and are passed onto, and paid by, customers for feeding themselves.
     

    Stagflation is a short- to medium-term risk, given the cumulative effects of brexoded manufacturers/exporters and FDI shortfall on productivity.


  20. 11 hours ago, Mister M said:

    ITV's report on the shortage of McDonalds milkshakes borders on satire

     

     

    Brexit has created a world in the UK, since around 2015, wherein problems are denied, warnings are ignored, and evidence is dismissed. The successive Brexit consequences threads carry all the proof that one needs. « Project Fear » is a good 5 years old by now.

     

    The real problem, is that the chickens borne from successive British governments’ policies tainted by this phenomenon over the last 5 years or so, are now coming home to roost, at an ever-accelerating rate of knots as systemic failures compound across sectors.

     

    Nando’s missing chicken, McD’s missing milkshakes, supermarkets’ vanishing shelves, deferred/cancelled bin collections as retailers hoover up refuse HGV drivers, halved levels of FDI, livestock farms cutting down on volumes bred, increasing end customer prices, etc, etc, etc…is still only just the start.
     

    Expect supply channel issues to get still worse, when full UK customs checks on animal products kick in on 1st October.

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