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Everything posted by L00b

  1. And stop already 🙃 That breach of AU sub contract has nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit, nor with its consequences, for France or the UK. Tellingly, France recalled its ambassadors from the US and AU, but did not recall its ambassador from London. Must be a measure of how relevant the UK is, in that “geopolitical shift”. When is the UK leaving NATO?
  2. Not in the UK for a while yet, which is the fundamental problem. In the meantime, I can’t see European big businesses, who can export anything and everything they want to the UK without checks until July next year, whilst standard EU import/customs rules applicable to third party country (ie UK since 1/1/21) goods insulate them from UK competition, exerting any pressure on EU27 governments or Brussels to change the current situation.
  3. So long as no-one (China, Russia, the US…) takes issue with it at the WTO. In the meantime, this smugglers’ charter situation is a huge problem for every domestic UK business undercut by competitors the world over. The EU27 checks on UK goods are the exact same, as always performed in respect of goods incoming from third party countries, with the degree of scrutiny proportional to the existence and depth of any FTA. There are no paperwork problems ‘invented’, just paperwork and procedures resumed from when the UK had abandoned them 30 years ago, when the Single Market was created. Leaving the Single Market, moreover with a thin ‘Canada’-grade FTA on goods-only without rules of origin baked in (ie a ‘hard’ Brexit) and therefore precipitating this return to standard TPC goods customs paperwork and procedures, was a deliberate choice and policy of the UK. Steadfast, when one considers how many times the UK rebuffed the EU27’s offers of time extensions and easements. Now please explain to me, why on earth should the EU stop the UK from pursuing its own sovereign policies? Then please explain to me, why on earth should the EU stop the UK from experiencing the standard, fully-predictable and fully-predicted, consequences of its own sovereign policies?
  4. Exactly this. Some suppliers may also be exiting the market early, through anticipation.
  5. Johnson simply got rid of, or demoted, Ministers that have grown unpopular within the Conservative party, and given their shot to the next batch of faithfuls. That is all. The main, and only, policy is still only about keeping Johnson in power, for power’s sake. Gove’s appointment is plenty clear in that context: keep the red wall blue, by telling it everything that it wants to hear and, in the same breath, Teflon-sliding the absence of any follow-through/delivery. He’s a perfect choice. Given the state of Justice in the UK, appointing Raab to the MoJ is like handing the keys to a joyrider after he’s already totalled the car. As for Nadine Dorries…12 hours on, or so, I’m still LOL’ing every time I read about her appointment 😂
  6. I think everybody with a couple of grey cells, and an attention span longer than that of a goldfish, knows perfectly well who is wearing the trousers in this ‘renewed’ UK-Australia cooperation 😉 As for that cancelled sub deal, no biggie, France will just sue Australia for unilateral breach of contract. Won’t be the first time, nor the last. The Aussies can always (try and-) have a natter with Biden about who pays.
  7. <cough> I don’t think what Brexiters wish (or don’t) or, for that matter, what Remainers wish (or don’t) matters one iota to your government, I’m afraid: you’re all getting the same Brexit you’re given.
  8. We’re starting to move into the realm of “consequence of consequences”, I think. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-takes-further-action-to-tackle-hgv-driver-shortage Due to the HGV driver shortage, the government have announced a number of changes in the testing system to help free up testers numbers and get HGV drivers licenced, variously including: Car drivers now do not need to pass a test to drive a car plus a trailer Drivers will only need to take 1 test to drive both a rigid and articulated lorry, rather than having to take 2 separate tests (spaced 3 weeks apart) HGV tests will be made shorter, with the reversing exercise element removed and the uncoupling and recoupling exercise for trailer tests removed - apparently these will be tested separately by a third party HGV drivers will no longer have to get a licence for a smaller vehicle before seeking a HGV licence (…) Happy motoring, peeps 😉
  9. Non-EU economic migrants who work for still less, of course. With my apologies for the DM link. Remember folks, it’s EU immigrants who were suppressing wages, OK? 😏😂
  10. 😂 In the words (more or less) of Interior Minister Darmanin this week, “sit and spin, Tory boy”😏
  11. The thing is, that government money comes from taxation, and that most of the tax collected is on business profits. A business making no profits, pays no taxes. ‘Uh-oh’, indeed.
  12. One or less, if you’re talking Navy-grade boats, fully-kitted out and crewed. Actually the UK has not pay that yet. The UK undertook to pay that, as contribution towards (continuing to-) managing illegals on French soil. But then Patel, just now, changed that undertaking to “we’ll only pay on results”, and defined such results as “stopping 3 boats out of 4”…whilst admitting in the same breadth that France had stopped 50% of the boats already (which is therefore a 50% result, any which way you want want to look at it), before any payment. So, how about 50% of that £54m, then? No? Alright, how about the French stop 0% of the boats, and Patel keeps her money instead? Much cheaper for the French taxpayers that way…and there’s an election coming up soon.
  13. “will”? They just have, that was the link. Same cause-and-effect (Brexit-and-consequence) situation, as the government’s recent relaxing of health & safety-based rules for HGV drivers. There are plenty more instances like this, that are boring/less newsworthy (this one is the pointy end of the tiny surfaced bit of the ‘Brexit & chemicals’ iceberg), and still more yet-to-come, as consequences keep arising, rippling and compounding in all sorts of ways, predicted and not. [Some of the ‘Brexit & chemicals’ iceberg was forecast in the government’s Yellowhammer plan…but, ironically, wrongly so: that “relax sewer/water discharge rules in case of chemicals shortage” was contingency-planned for a no deal Brexit, yet we’re seeing it happen notwithstanding the UK/EU deal 😬]
  14. It’s busy offsetting the lossy side of the Brexit Profit & Loss account. That NI tax hike isn’t getting spent on social care, it’s getting spent on the NHS first, for the next 2-3 years, i.e. until the next GE.
  15. The UK cannot legally return any asylum seeker/refugee/immigrant to any country on the Continent, without the agreement of the country in question, unless the returnee is a national of that country. No matter how much money the UK throws at it. That is why deportation flights operate on a per-country (-destination) basis. UK embassies already do that (process asylum requests locally) the world over, indeed it is the approach recommended by the HO to would-be refugees (and in the news again very recently, for Afghans ‘with UK ties’ escaped to Pakistan). There have been such ‘jungles’ in Paris for years already, as staging points before moving onto the northwest coast. They’re usually coalesced about pillars under sections of the Périphérique. You can’t have been in/around Paris much, nor for years and longer, if you ain’t ever seen any. They’re “cleaned up” (and illegals rounded up, processed, granted asylum or deported, etc) at least as frequently as the camps in and around Calais.
  16. Well, England and Wales, in a couple years’ time: Sturgeon just came off the pot and declared for holding IndyRef2 by end 2023. https://news.stv.tv/politics/sturgeon-government-plans-to-hold-indyref2-vote-by-end-of-2023?top (another such ‘far-reaching consequence’ with negative outcomes for the UK, I’m afraid)
  17. You do? Err, Ok. …Brexit is a bit s**t, really 😑
  18. You know, I would offer to use shorter words and sentences for you, if only you gave the slightest impression of comprehending complex issues and wanting to engage about them. 🙃
  19. Much as it did for the UK until 01/01/21, the Single Market still facilitates the leveraging of supply chains across the EU27 with any willing Romanian, Hungarian, Polish, Latvian (etc) HGV drivers and owner-operators, with minimal paperwork and red tape, and without any of the red tape put back in place between the UK as a third country and the EU as of 01/01/21. Put simply, it’s cabotage as usual all across the EU27, with all HGV resources used to the full and with minimal red tape. /EDIT for what I mean in practice: in the EU27, a Romanian HGV has no difficulty picking loads of <anything> <anywhere on/along a route and back again> to keep himself going with minimal downtime over <however long between returns-to-base>. Covid or not, that was also true/also applied the UK until 01/01/21, and UK supply chains had been leveraging it to the max for decades. The UK brexiting outside the Single Market put a legal/regulatory stop to it, besides the fact that UK export loads to the EU27 have been very few and far between since then. But it still runs as before across the EU27. /EDIT. So that shortage of drivers in the EU27 would only have relevance (-for the UK, as regards its domestic haulage capacity) if the UK had not brexited, wherein British supply chains were disrupted only by that shortage of drivers, and were competing with other EU27 supply chains for capacity on an even ‘red tape’ keel, rather than be disrupted by the myriad further factors borne from decoupling the UK economy from the Single Market overnight. British haulage professionals, freight forwarders, customs agents and all sorts of other logistics experts who have been at that particular coalface for years and decades (including pre-Single Market days), had been warning about exactly this supply chain shock/crisis to come in the UK for the last 5 years. They’d been summarily dismissed as ‘Project Fear’ for just as long. Hey-ho. <shrug>
  20. It certainly has, and the 20,000+ Brexoded drivers have been a godsend 🤗 I’ve mentioned it before: short-term, the core issue is the end of cabotage (by EU27 drivers in the UK) since 01/01/21 because of Brexit. Put simply, that was an overnight loss of logistic capacity within the UK domestic market as a whole, that cannot be replaced, mitigated or substituted, because of the type of Brexit (‘Canada plus’) chosen and implemented by the Johnson government. The shortage of drivers in the UK is a medium-term issue. You cannot possibly solve it in the coming months, with army logistics (2000 HGV drivers, estimate) and/or tweaking health & safety parameters (mandatory rests, CPC, etc) in driving rules, and/or grandfathering bus drivers and what-have-you. That is why your MSM is only now beginning to mention ‘2 years’ longer of labour shortages to come’. Whether Europe is also suffering from a shortage of drivers, or not, is completely irrelevant: there are no empty supermarket shelves in Europe, and businesses have very little issue shipping goods (food or otherwise) across the EU27, including to/from Ireland, via the new ferry routes.
  21. Tell you what: France can save itself significantly more than €54m, by not patrolling its northern coast for anyone who wants to leave the country, whether for the UK or wherever else. No more Sangatte, Grande-Synthe, ‘Jungle’, etc. camps to police every other month and, with the UK exiting the scope of the Dublin Regs through Brexit, no returns either. So keep your silver, and save yourself trust issues: win-win-win all-around 🤗
  22. There are more pressing problems than the labour crisis. Although the ‘lorry driver’ subset of it, is quite the accelerant. https://twitter.com/angus_young61/status/1434849786868469762?s=20
  23. Wage inflation is across the board, not restricted to HGV drivers: from the produce itself (lack of staff picking fruits & veg, slaughtering & butchering cattle, etc > pay more to get the staff in), through to conditioning (lack of staff in food processing plants > pay more to get the staff in), warehousing (lack of staff for palletising, goods handling > pay more to get the staff in), and transporting (HGV drivers > pay more to get the staff in). Not forgetting supermarket workers themselves (there is a recent UK Court precedent under which retail employees cannot be paid less than warehousing staff)… …and that is only the foodstuffs value/retail chain, robbing Peter (all other goods-based industries, which have their own value and supply chains, with corresponding staffing requirements…and staff expectations in terms of pay & benefits) to keep paying Paul (shareholders, of course). It does not matter whether the GBP gets stronger or devalues. The UK is headed straight for inflation, as these costs compound across supply chains across most sectors, and are passed onto, and paid by, customers for feeding themselves. Stagflation is a short- to medium-term risk, given the cumulative effects of brexoded manufacturers/exporters and FDI shortfall on productivity.
  24. Brexit has created a world in the UK, since around 2015, wherein problems are denied, warnings are ignored, and evidence is dismissed. The successive Brexit consequences threads carry all the proof that one needs. « Project Fear » is a good 5 years old by now. The real problem, is that the chickens borne from successive British governments’ policies tainted by this phenomenon over the last 5 years or so, are now coming home to roost, at an ever-accelerating rate of knots as systemic failures compound across sectors. Nando’s missing chicken, McD’s missing milkshakes, supermarkets’ vanishing shelves, deferred/cancelled bin collections as retailers hoover up refuse HGV drivers, halved levels of FDI, livestock farms cutting down on volumes bred, increasing end customer prices, etc, etc, etc…is still only just the start. Expect supply channel issues to get still worse, when full UK customs checks on animal products kick in on 1st October.
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