unbeliever

I have told you already several times. If you're too lazy to read them yourself that's not my concern.

Well you appear similar to me sometimes. I guess that's a mixture of emotion and bias that emerges (despite our best efforts) from passionate support for our positions.

Growth is strong, unemployment is low and inflation is fair. Sterling is down, but that's a mixed bag. The net outlook is rather positive ion general terms and positively awesome compared to what project fear would have us expect.

It would be nice if the remainers would just accept that many of us leavers honestly believe we have chosen the right course for the greatest good. It would be even nicer if they would accept that we have come to believe this despite not being mentally deficient.

Both sides are trading economic data supporting their position. I don't think either will stop an time soon.

We disagree that EU membership is good for the country. We have perfectly legitimate reasons for this. First we won the popular vote on the matter and now the economics is lining up our way as well. I wonder what it would take for the remainers to concede the point.

Okay. Ta. I suppose. The sheer tonnage of evidence now that Brexit is no real threat to the economy could stun a herd of wild oxen in its tracks, but you keep on with the doom talk.

If you wish really hard, maybe the fairies will bring you a recession.

Couldn't agree more. They don't understand systematic uncertainties and there are way too many assumptions involved.

Nigel I think it depends on whether you categorise soft sciences as a whole (such as sociology) as sciences. It's a matter of opinion. I would argue that if social sciences are sciences then so is economics. If they are not then it is not.

Perhaps I can help. Here is the grauniad in january referring to the item clubs's forecast of weak growth in 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/22/uk-gdp-forecast-a-strong-finish-to-2016-and-a-sharp-slowdown-in-2017 This is the same organisation guido is quoting. The original is here: http://www.ey.com/uk/en/issues/business-environment/financial-markets-and-economy/item---forecast-headlines-and-projections If the item club forest was good enough for the europhile grauniad in january, perhaps the europhiles on this forum should at least give it a look. It's not some rose-tinted brexit-loving pressure group we're talking about here. They've revised a rather pessimistic earlier forecast back up to 1.8% for this year, 1.2% for 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. Inflation is to peak at 3%. Which is not good by recent standards. They are predicting a rather healthy looking rebalancing as well, which I think would be positive overall. These forecasts will turn out to be wrong. And what's more they will be very wrong. Who knows what direction they will be wrong in. The only thing we can be truly confident of is the wrongness. It is however encouraging that the probabilities in the modelling have shifted around and are tending more toward growth and prosperity.

Oh look. You built a giant straw man. Does he lie for you whilst you're busy with other things?

Ye gods are you still on about this. You got caught in a lie. The fact that you are still trying to use that lie as the premise of an argument is rather absurd.

I like democracy. Therefore your entire ridiculous argument falls apart. QED. ---------- Post added 10-04-2017 at 19:18 ---------- Example. .

Not lost anything though have I. You lied and I proved you'd lied. And now you're in a mess because you can't bring yourself to admit it. ---------- Post added 10-04-2017 at 18:45 ---------- Russia has become a dictatorship. It's a shame, but it won't make a good friend. Maybe after Putin democracy will be restored and we can look at it again.

You lied. Own it or be known forever as an unrepentant liar.

As you probably know I'm a vocal and strident leave supporter. As much as I would prefer Brexit not to be associated with such disgusting behaviour, I honestly believe Obelix and I would advise others to do the same. Now if HairyLoon had made such a claim, I'd be the first to doubt it.

You'll hear no defence from me of that kind of behaviour. I'm sorry that you have been subject to such abuse.

The fault is not wth statistics but with the abuse of them. So I ask for clarification. Are you using the proper definition of "real terms", which is corrected for inflation, or some other definition?

I've heard it used several times in the commons, by opposition MPs, to mean as a percentage of GDP. The term is evolving and you need to watch out for alternative uses. I always ask for clarification when I hear it.

We get a lot of talk about whether or not something has gone up "in real terms". This is a highly ambiguous term. It always used to mean that it had gone up correcting for inflation. But there is no one measure of inflation and there is sector-specific inflation which may be higher. There's percentage of GDP, but then why should spending on everything always be the same percentage of GDP? Just because the economy has grown doesn't mean that everything we do has to grow with it. Of course none of this accounts for an increase in demand due to long term trends that do not show up in inflation. Such as a naturally-driven increase in demand. Myself I would favour correcting for sector-specific inflation and measuring per capita rather than in total. Do I hear a second?

Which real terms would these be. Because the opposition have started using "real terms" to me as a percentage of GDP rather than corrected for inflation.

I wasn't trying to be disagreeable. But I wanted to point out that it is already policy to increase the living wage at a rate far higher than the rate of inflation,

Well okay. In the interests of good humour I shall leave the Brexit dig alone. The current Conservative government anticipates a national living wage of £9 in 3 years time. Promising to get it up to £10 in 8 years time is actually very poor. It's not just inflation. The whole point of the national living wage is to push us gradually away from in-work benefits into higher wages. Basically the living wage policy was stolen from Corbyn's predecessor by May's predecessor and is being implemented right now whilst Labour sit by and bleat about nonsense. Corbyn has nothing meaningful to say on the subject.

Please don't do that. I have great respect for both of you. L00b has been personally rather badly affected by Brexit and is entitled to some anger at those of us who support it. Others have suffered even more.