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23 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

I'm not clutching at straws at all. I stated how the votes could be apportioned between leave and remain long before the results came out.

 

What did John Curtice predict before 2016?

 

If there was a second referendum and it came out 52% remain and 48% leave, what then? Which of the two votes would take precedence, or should there then be a third to decide it once and for all?

The most recent one as it is with how all laws are made in this country.  You do live in this country right?

Are you trying to be silly now?  Serious question, I need to know how low I need to go to debate with you now.

20 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

Irrelevant. The Conservatives stood on a leave platform. Ken Clarke is not the party leader and does not decide party policy.

So his votes and other remainer Tory MPs don’t count in Parliament?

You are the kind of person that bangs in about sovereignty and complain about EU legislation but you’re unable to give a single example of a piece of legislation that is bad for our country. Workers’ rights is really bad for example right?

11 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

Because in the UK, as a UK citizen and resident, my vote should count and those of people not living here should not. It's simple really. We never voted to join a superstate with heavily diluted democratic representation.

No, the position can only count at the time of the election, obviously.

You're trying to split the leave vote. The Tories stand for leave, whether it's hard or soft, that is their position. Trying to apportion a percentage of their vote to Remain is desperate.

These were elections to the EU Parliament and not Westminster. You know The difference right?

So the likes of Ken Clarke is a leave supporter?

1 minute ago, WiseOwl182 said:

And there in a nutshell is why Brexit happened. We've found ourselves in a position where our laws can be passed on the basis that our biggest party in EU elections and therefore our representatives in the EU parliament make up 29/751 and in your own words, have no relevance. This is why people find it undemocratic and want to regain sovereignty. 

You are behaving undemocratically by thinking like that you hypocrite. Why is your vote worth more than another EU citizen in these elections?

20 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

The new PM won't want to force through a no-deal but will seek to get the back stop changed on the current deal on offer.  The only way to get anything changed is by our country being prepared to leave the EU on a no deal basis.  Anyone  who is not prepared to walk away from any deal is deluded if they think they can negotiate terms favourable for themselves.   

Change the backstop before the end of October? Really?

Who is the government going to negotiate with to do that? The EU are in transition with new EU leaders being decided on. 

The EU have said there is no altering the deal. So the deal can’t change and no-deal is not possible. Not many options left are there?

21 minutes ago, Lockdoctor said:

 The Brexit Party have won the European Election. The Brexit Party took a bigger percentage of the European Election vote and have won more seats than UKIP did in the 2014 European Elections.  As Ann Widdocombe pointed out voters had only one reason to vote for the Brexit Party while voters chose the other parties for more reasons. 

 

The result of the European Election tells us that the desire for the UK people to leave the EU hasn't fallen and the vast majority of the people who voted to leave the EU are happy to leave the EU without a deal.  It is the same people who voted to remain in the EU and haven't accepted the 2016 democratic EU referendum result who don't want the UK to leave the EU without a deal.  The only way the UK will get a better deal than what is on offer is by having a new Prime Minister who the EU know is genuinely prepared to leave the EU without a deal. 

 

The Brexit Party will be the largest single party from one single country in the European Parliament. It says a lot about the EU that the largest single party from one country is a party that doesn't want to be there.   The EU should have already thrown us out by now, but they haven't because they still want our country's money.

You are pretty deluded if you think a new PM can force through no-deal. There enough MPs from both sides of the isle to collapse the government to prevent this. Phillip Hammond has already fired warning shots. 

Let me see, the shadow foreign secretary and most importantly the shadow chancellor and deputy Labour leader have openly said there needs to be a second vote. Numerous Labour MPs have come out and said the same. The ground is moving in one very obvious direction. 

You are just  burying your head in the sand. I’ll be happy to say I told you so later. 

2 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

It doesn't matter if all Tories are leavers or remainers, or Labour for that matter. It's the platform they stood on so it's what people voted for. If remainers want to vote for a leave party in an EU election then that's their problem.

The way you are clutching at the most feeble of straws is hilarious. You keep on digging. 

If Labour are a Leave party then why were they the main opposition against the government deal for being “too hard a Brexit”?

The Labour Party are most definitely shifting towards a second referendum if not remain. If you can’t see that, then that is definitely your problem. 

11 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

UK results based on vote share after 10 of 12 regions:

 

Leave:

Brexit Party 33.3%

Conservatives 8.8%

UKIP 3.5%

Half of Labour 7.3%

 

Total: 52.9%

 

Leave 52.9, remain 47.1

All Tories are Leavers are they? I think 5 million Tory voters might argue otherwise. Also, three quarters of Labour voters are remainers. 

You claim to be intelligent but on this showing, it is definitely not the case. 

A fairer reflection of the vote share would be;

Remain - 53.7%

Leave - 41.3%

Vote share are only from definitively pro Brexit or remain parties with the Tory and Labour vote apportioned fairly as I have described. 

1 minute ago, I1L2T3 said:

On the face of it, it looks like it’s a polarisation between no deal and remain.

That is a step forward because it shows us perhaps what the essential choice is. 

 

But....no PM is going to get a no deal through Parliament. No deal is dead. That leaves compromise or revoke.

This is a good point as it means that only moderates will be considered true contenders. There are enough Tory MPs to bring down the government if a PM was foolish enough to try to ram no-deal through. 

Bye bye Raab and Johnson. Leadsom and McVey could be added to this list as well. 

2 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

That's irrelevant. In an EU election, it's the position of the party on the EU that matters. Conservatives stand for leave, so their votes count for leave. Labour's position has been too unclear (although they officially stick by the 2016 result, but I'll be generous and split their vote 50/50).

That’s not how referendums are counted is it? Why do you think analysis of the results now is mainly by vote share and not MEPs won?

Just now, Car Boot said:

Leave would win a second referendum.

 

The establishment now knows this. Remain wouldn't have young EU nationals voting to distort the result.

Not heard about the EU nationals and British expats not being able to vote and the government is getting sued because of it?

if anything, this actually unintentionally given us quite a nice snapshot of voting intentions if a second referendum was held.

This election result only further strengthens the argument for a second referendum.  

9 minutes ago, WiseOwl182 said:

Only very, very slightly.

 

Wales results: 

 

Leave:

Brexit Party - 271,404 - 32.5%

Conservatives - 54,587 - 6.5%

UKIP - 27,566 - 3.3%

Total: 42.3%

 

Remain:

Plaid Cymru - 163,928 - 19.6%

Lib Dems - 113,885 - 13.6%

Green - 52,660 - 6.3%

Change UK - 24,332 - 2.9%

Total: 42.4%

 

In, out, shake it all about (assign half to each side)

Labour - 127,833 - 15.3%

 

= Leave 49.95%

Remain 50.05%

Your analysis isn’t very fair at all. Considering a third of Tory voters are remainers and 75% of Labour voters are remainers, it swings Wales quite firmly from Leave to remain. 

10 minutes ago, XXTickerXX said:

People (and all the "experts" and mainly remainers) seems to have forgotten 2 important things:

 

1) Many Leavers have boycotted this election, because we shouldn't even be involved, costing the tax payer over £100mil.

 

2) All EU nationals in the UK can vote in this EU election, guess which side/parties they vote for? this means lib dems & greens votes are artificially inflated, when it comes to the General Election and god forbid 2nd ref, the remain side will be without those votes from EU nationals.

 

Also don't forget after 3 years of nastiness and abuse thrown at Leavers, a lot of people have become "quiet" Leavers, (like the "quiet conservatives", and not answering polls, not talking about politics, but they do their talking in the voting booth.

 

Hence why Leave won in 2016, people who rarely or never votes, when it comes to such an important issue, they vote in large and unexpected numbers. 

 

In a general election any remain party will split the vote and the Brexit Party will mop the floor with them manifesto or not. 

 

This is what it would look like in a first past the post system. Still want another referendum or election?

 

 

The Brexit Party currently on 29 seats are now the largest single party in the European Parliament out of every single country. Could get a few more yet.

A very narrow minded view. A very large portion of EU nationals couldn’t vote and a very significant number of British expats couldn’t vote. So your second point is invalid. 

As for many leavers boycotted these elections. Got any actual facts to support this? Turnout is roughly the same as it has always been. No real indication that more remainers or leavers voted this time around. 

Being very desperate by not legitimately considering all remain parties since they all make up the left leaning political groups in the EU Parliament. The right leaning groups are collectively in the minority now. 

8 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

He's got a point. Even considering a 35-40% turnout, you'd expect the greens and lib dems to have more combined votes than the brexit party on their own and they haven't. 

Why are you excluding the SNP and PC? Do the Scots and Welsh not deserve to have their votes counted? What about Change UK?

Just now, Car Boot said:

If there has been a shifting of public opinion, explain to me why a hard Brexit party is winning more votes and seats than any other party? Shouldn't it be a Remainer party winning the most votes and seats?

The Remainer Parties collectively do have the most votes and seats.

3 minutes ago, XXTickerXX said:

You seem like a typical sore loser. Most remainiacs are. Enjoy having Prime minister Farage being in charge. 

 

The basic arithmetic that means 48% means we don't want to leave because it beats 52%. Oh wait ...... Please remind us all how bright you are again. It's fun.

If you can't see the shifting of public opinion then that is your problem.  The 2016 result is becoming more irrelevant by the day.  If it was so important, explain to me why we haven't left and why we are having these elections?

I am playing the long game.  What are you playing?

1 minute ago, Car Boot said:

Try reading the Labour party website. It explicitly states that Labour accepts the referendum result.

Try keeping up.  We were supposed to have left by now.

Also, don't believe what the Labour leader is saying tonight?  His voice carrys no weight?

2 minutes ago, El Cid said:

At the moment the Brexit Party have won 28 MEPs and 32% of the vote, only 32%, they would need more than 50% in order to secure a majority.

 

The Liberal Democrats and Greens got 32%, how do the other partys add up?

Brexiteers do generally have lower attainment of education.  Simple stats, it's not even stats, it's basic arithmetic eludes them.

2 minutes ago, Car Boot said:

Brexit party + UKIP + Labour + Conservative easily beats the combined Remain vote.

 

A Leave party that is only six weeks old gets more votes than any other party! Leave has smashed it! Boom!

 

 

Labour as a leave party.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48417378

Dream on.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has responded to tonight's results.

“After three years of Tory failure to deliver a Brexit that works for the whole country, these elections became a proxy second referendum," he says

"With the Conservatives disintegrating and unable to govern, and parliament deadlocked, this issue will have to go back to the people, whether through a general election or a public vote.

"Labour will bring our divided country together so we can end austerity and tackle inequality.

“Over the coming days we will have conversations across our party and movement, and reflect on these results on both sides of the Brexit divide.

“We will not let the continuing chaos in the Conservative Party push our country into a no-deal exit from the EU.

"Parliament can and will prevent such a damaging outcome for jobs and industry in the UK.”

Sounds like leave right?

2 minutes ago, XXTickerXX said:

You asked how I felt about solicitors and doctors. I consider them to be normal people skilled in one subject. How is that not understandable?

 

Back to the elections.

 

The Brexit Party won full stop from a standing start.  The numbers the Brexit party are getting will terrify politicians in a FPTP voting system for a general election.

 

TBP is only 6 weeks old.
Wait until they are fully established.

 

Despite the BBC and Sky efforts to convince us otherwise their has been a fundamental change in British politics tonight. The push for a second referendum was based on the complete myth that the people had changed their minds. Tonight shows they have not.

 

You obviously do not read history (or at all?).  The EU elections have always been a form of protest vote.  The result of the EU elections has NEVER translated to a subsequent GE.  A party with no manifesto will never do well. 

Currently as it stands the confirmed MEPs are as follows;

33x Remain

31x Leave

Obviously the public has confirmed that we should leave.  Right?

Put another way at the time of this post;

Remain - 9,034,867

Leave - 7,293,815

HAHAHAHA.

The North West has;

5x Remain

3x Leave

3 minutes ago, Pettytom said:

I don’t think that the Brexit Party intend to fight a GE. For a start, they’d need policies and credible candidates. Just another protest party. A bit like the Lib Dems and Greens.

Unlike the Brexit Party, the Lib Dems actually were in government.

If there was any doubt that Labour is  a Remain party.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48417378

2 minutes ago, tinfoilhat said:

The country has voted in great numbers (given the low turnout) for the brexit party, a party that didn't exist 6 months back.  The last time farage took this many votes from the Tories Cameron decided to have a referendum. 

Ok, a little history lesson.  When did a party do well in the EU elections manage to translate it at a subsequent GE?

3 minutes ago, XXTickerXX said:

But all the intellectuals told us that Britain had changed their mind and did not want to leave?!?!?!?

 

It pretty much always comes down to remainers saying "this is bad because I say it's bad. This is fine though because I say it's fine," an opinion by people who hold themselves to be the morally pure arbiters of universal truth and humanity.

 

Which is ironic, as they're virtually always social rejects with few positive qualities other than shouting "racist" at people if you do not agree with them. Oh and they hate democracy.

 

Apparently no one who voted cons or lab are leave voters. How odd.

 

 

Are you stupid enough to think the results of Yorkshire and the Humber can be extrapolated nationwide?

Ok, you’re pretty naïve.  Labour is clearly Remain based on what they are saying tonight.  Whereas, the Tories have be counted as Leave.