I tend to be a bit more positive than you,yes we've had a bad time but there are green shoots(be them small) but I see the downsides but don't just concentrate on those.
I'm not being negative, i'm being realistic. If I thought the economy was in a good state/going to be in a good state shortly, I would say so, but I don't as I think we will be in for another 2 years minimum of bad news. If you don't agree fair enough but being positive doesn't mean you are right and it isn't necessarily a good thing. If something bad is going to happen and you deny it and don't plan for it or plan around it, then you are setting yourself up for a fall. You can try to take positives out of the negatives but don't pretend the negative isn't going to happen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukdobby
You're like winning a million in bookies but highlight the tax you've paid.
The tax will be more in a year's time which means less money in people's pockets which means less money to spend on houses
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
Hi Akrasia, I don't think I said that interest rates prevent inflation only that they have helped people to keep hold of their homes in this recession unlike last time around.
Here's where I thought that you said that reducing interest rates had prevented inflation: "What labour and the bank of England did by lowering interest rates was to save us from the complete disaster a la the 80s because it was crippling inflation and subsequent flood of people losing their houses that was the nail in the coffin."
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Originally Posted by Sam9
I feel like I am paying attention and I don't see why news of predicted growth in the economy isn't good news!
There's a lot of economic news around. Have you been following the unemployment figures (still rising)? Or public debt (out of control)? Or the decision to extend quantitative easing (because of continuing weakness in the economy)? Or lending levels (still subdued)? Or the plans to cut public spending (based on the over-optimistic projections in the last budget, 7% cuts are coming)? Even the positive news, which general comes from people with a reason to talk the economy up, has generally been qualified with warnings that times are still tough and there are further difficulties around the corner.
That's why one survey that shows increased optimism isn't enough to make me cheerful about the economic climate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam9
Can I ask your predictions for house prices in 2010?
There are too many unknowns to make any confident predictions. I don't know whether the government will intervene in the mortgage market, or to prevent repossessions, or whether inflationary pressures will push mortgage rates up, or whether recapitalised banks will move mortgage rates closer to the BoE base rate. I don't know how deep the coming public spending cuts will be, or how soon public bodies will implement them. There may or may not be a gilt strike, more bank collapses, an oil shock, and/or an IMF bail-out, each of which would indirectly affect house prices.
What does seem clear is that there's more bad news coming than good, and that house prices are still very high compared to long-term averages, so I expect further falls. If you really want a tentative prediction, then my guess would be that the next election will be a turning point for the economy, as the current government will postpone as much of the damage as they can until it can be blamed on the Tories. I expect interest rates to stay low for quite a while, because the BoE is gloomy about prospects for growth and unperturbed by currency devaluation. So house prices may start to drift downwards by the end of the year, but more consistent/bigger falls should come much later as unemployment finally peaks and interest rates finally rise, but I won't be surprised if things play out differently to that, and it would only take one significant event to cause them to do so.
The other problem with predicting house prices is that they largely reflect the sentiment of people who aren't experts, so they can be expected to be irrational. The media have just as much influence over house prices as banks, and I have no idea how events will be reported.
Sorry I can't give you anything firmer than that. What's your take on the way things are going?
My house is worth less than my mortgage is for because of falling prices. It may be the case that the next house I buy will also cost less (I assume this your point?) but I can't move until I have enough money to pay off the mortgage and put a deposit down on a new house.
Last time I moved I basically paid off the mortgage with the money from the sale, and the extra that I had put into the house as a deposit when I bought it could be used as the deposit on the new house.
Nobody replied to me as usual
I was looking forward to hearing how falling house prices isn't bad for me as a home owner.
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Don't argue with stupid people. They'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
If your house is now worth less than your mortgage then you're one of the few whom is worse off do to falling house prices.
The vast majority of people though aren't in that situation.
If you don't own a home then it's a good thing.
If you own or have a mortgage and intend to trade up then it's a good thing
Even for you unless you have to move it's not actually bad, it's just not good.
If you are downsizing then it's bad and if you are forced to sell and not repurchase then it's bad.
The group of people in 'bad' is much smaller than those in 'good' and 'neutral'.
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Everyone's listening, and wishing you'd just shut up.
Even when/if the crash resumes, if there are several parties interested in a house somebody has to pay more to get it. You can choose for that not to be you like we have on several occasions now but then you might never buy a house which is the way it is starting to look for us unless we do pay more then we would ideally like to.
If there are several people interested in every house and somebody pays more than it's current market value, then it isn't a crash. Sure there might be some houses that this happens to, in a crahs, but they will be in the minority - a lot of properties just won't sell at all and this is what happened in the 18 months preceding the current bounce.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
If there are several people interested in every house and somebody pays more than it's current market value, then it isn't a crash. Sure there might be some houses that this happens to, in a crahs, but they will be in the minority - a lot of properties just won't sell at all and this is what happened in the 18 months preceding the current bounce.
It has taken us a long time to sell our house but in the time we have been looking every house we have been interested in has sold (In S8 area). We are fussy and houses we tend to like so do other people. There are houses that have been for sale for ages but for us it wouldn't matter how low they were reduced we wouldn't want to buy them. I very much doubt that houses in the areas of S8 we are looking in have come down by even 15%. The lower end (like our house) seems to have come down more but still under 15%. Yes many houses don't sell but houses that tick all the boxes do.
There are variations for different areas, but I suspect that if you look at the prices of the housing in the area you're interested in over the past 18 months, it will have fallen just like everywhere else.
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Everyone's listening, and wishing you'd just shut up.
There are variations for different areas, but I suspect that if you look at the prices of the housing in the area you're interested in over the past 18 months, it will have fallen just like everywhere else.
I agree. I'm just saying I don't think they have fallen by 15%. Our house hasn't dropped that much and the one next door but one recently sold and completed for a similar amount. We are struggling to even get offers considered (on more expenisve houses) which are between 10 and 15% off what we believe is the max the house could have been worth. And unfortunately the estate agents don't appear to be lying for once as the SOLD boards are going up.
We could if we wanted just sell ours and rent and then buy again if prices drop even more but we feel that's a bigger risk for us to take than to buy now and prices drop more. At least we'll have a house and be happy. If we wait we might end up unable to afford to buy again.
It has taken us a long time to sell our house but in the time we have been looking every house we have been interested in has sold (In S8 area). We are fussy and houses we tend to like so do other people. There are houses that have been for sale for ages but for us it wouldn't matter how low they were reduced we wouldn't want to buy them. I very much doubt that houses in the areas of S8 we are looking in have come down by even 15%. The lower end (like our house) seems to have come down more but still under 15%. Yes many houses don't sell but houses that tick all the boxes do.
I don't doubt your personal experience I just meant that you (as in everybody going for a property) don't have to pay more to get a house, at least not when the crash resumes anyway.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
The LR figures for July were released today and they show a national rise of 1.7% and a Sheffield rise of 1.4%. It was largely expected as a whole nationally but I was hoping that Sheffield would be exempt from the rises (some places were) for this month. Here's the link anyway - http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
I don't doubt your personal experience I just meant that you (as in everybody going for a property) don't have to pay more to get a house, at least not when the crash resumes anyway.
just keep ignoring the facts dimitri, keep ignoring the facts.
just keep ignoring the facts dimitri, keep ignoring the facts.
Pot and kettle come to mind Saxo.......you were denying prices were falling for about 8 months in a row despite the LR saying otherwise. I'm not denying anything anyway, just reading the situation differently to you.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
Pot and kettle come to mind Saxo.......you were denying prices were falling for about 8 months in a row despite the LR saying otherwise. I'm not denying anything anyway, just reading the situation differently to you.
please show me where I was saying that?
what I posted was "real time" and has again been proven correct by your beloved LR figures.
I have never said prices haven`t fallen BUT I will go on record as saying YOUR 20-30% from peak is wrong.
what I posted was "real time" and has again been proven correct by your beloved LR figures.
I have never said prices haven`t fallen BUT I will go on record as saying YOUR 20-30% from peak is wrong.
Real time? How long does it take for the average home sale to be completed? I don't think it's 7-8 months from the price being agreed which is what it would need to be for your 'real time' to be correct......you were posting that prices were rising in October '08. The LR figures didn't show a rise until the report that showed sales completed in June '09! Your 'real time' theory is just a get out clause because you knew prices were falling and had no legitimate reason to explain it away. You've got lucky with the current rises (bull trap) but when prices start falling again you will be back to your 'real time' argument.
Prices did fall in Sheffield by nearly 20% and they weren't MY figures, they were the figures from the LR (minus repos of course). My estimate was for falls of about 30% from peak by the end of the year but clearly this is now going to be wrong. However I still reckon we will be looking at falls of 40-50% by the end of the crash, maybe even more than that.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
Real time? How long does it take for the average home sale to be completed? I don't think it's 7-8 months from the price being agreed which is what it would need to be for your 'real time' to be correct......you were posting that prices were rising in October '08. The LR figures didn't show a rise until the report that showed sales completed in June '09! Your 'real time' theory is just a get out clause because you knew prices were falling and had no legitimate reason to explain it away. You've got lucky with the current rises (bull trap) but when prices start falling again you will be back to your 'real time' argument.
Prices did fall in Sheffield by nearly 20% and they weren't MY figures, they were the figures from the LR (minus repos of course). My estimate was for falls of about 30% from peak by the end of the year but clearly this is now going to be wrong. However I still reckon we will be looking at falls of 40-50% by the end of the crash, maybe even more than that.
once again - show me where i said prices were rising last oct. what i said was MY PRICE ISNT GOING TO BE GOING ANY LOWER and it didnt and the house sold in April for LESS THAN 5 (FIVE) PERCENT BELOW MARKET HIGH.
the house I BOUGHT WAS 10 (TEN) PERCENT BELOW MARKET HIGH AND THAT PRICE IS NOW BEEN ACHIEVED BY THE SMALLER PROPERTIES ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE ROAD.
it doesnt matter how often you click your heels and say "prices will drop EVEN further" ..........your not going back to kansas.
once again - show me where i said prices were rising last oct
What I said was 'you were denying prices were falling' and since you insist here's a post of yours from October '08:
Quote:
Originally Posted by saxondale
were stagnant now - the prices arent falling and the sales arnt been closed, what do YOU think the first thing everyone is going to want to do when they realise the world hasnt ended is?
Your 'real time' in October '08 would have meant that these sales showed up in the LR figures for Jan/Feb/March '09 and did prices fall, on average, in those months? Yep, they sure did.
Quote:
Originally Posted by saxondale
it doesnt matter how often you click your heels and say "prices will drop EVEN further" ..........your not going back to kansas.
I've stopped wearing heels as my back was playing up but it will take more than that to stop prices going to back to their long term average of 3-3.5x average wage.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
What I said was 'you were denying prices were falling' and since you insist here's a post of yours from October '08:
Your 'real time' in October '08 would have meant that these sales showed up in the LR figures for Jan/Feb/March '09 and did prices fall, on average, in those months? Yep, they sure did.
I've stopped wearing heels as my back was playing up but it will take more than that to stop prices going to back to their long term average of 3-3.5x average wage.
as I said then - prices had stopped falling in THE REAL WORLD by last october, your LR figures are too far behind to be of any use - for example, my house sale in april hasnt been registered yet according to my solicitor.
Prices didnt fall in Jan/Feb/March - thats my whole point
as I said then - prices had stopped falling in THE REAL WORLD by last october, your LR figures are too far behind to be of any use - for example, my house sale in april hasnt been registered yet according to my solicitor.
So sales agreed in October took 8 months to be reflected in the LR figures? So by this reckoning we will still be seeing house price rises, according to the LR, until AT LEAST April '10 as Nationwide's figures for AGREED sales in August saw a rise. I'll try to remember this post at the turn of the year
Quote:
Originally Posted by saxondale
Prices didnt fall in Jan/Feb/March - thats my whole point
As above and you weren't talking abut prices in Jan/Feb/March, you were talking about prices in October '08. March may have seen rises which were reflected in the LR report for completions in June but I doubt that Jan or Feb did as April and May's LR figures were still negative.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
So sales agreed in October took 8 months to be reflected in the LR figures? So by this reckoning we will still be seeing house price rises, according to the LR, until AT LEAST April '10 as Nationwide's figures for AGREED sales in August saw a rise. I'll try to remember this post at the turn of the year
As above and you weren't talking abut prices in Jan/Feb/March, you were talking about prices in October '08. March may have seen rises which were reflected in the LR report for completions in June but I doubt that Jan or Feb did as April and May's LR figures were still negative.
you look but never read - Dimitri you can post all the links to all the reports in the world BUT they are just that ............ reports
just listen to real people for once instead of looking for the answer on a bit of paper.
i told you in Oct prices had stopped falling and they had, yes it can take 8 months for figures to filter through, that is where you are looking in the wtong places
you now have a vested interest in pretending prices are still falling so you dont end up with egg on your face
you missed the boat, shouting about it isnt going to fetch it back
