A friend of mine went to look round a house at Dore, and every room was filled with viewers. She had to stand in a queue. Whether it will go for the amount asked is another matter. Still a buyers market though. It is still Location, Location, Location apparantly.
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I Dont Mind Having A Bad Reputation --As Long As Ive Had The Pleasure Of Earning It.
Did I say it should? I'm not interested for myself, as the only way I'll be leaving here is in a box, though hopefully not for a few years yet
No, I meant it as a generalisation, I wasn't saying you in particular thought this (house prices will rise long term because they are rising now) - that's why I said, 'make your own decision'. As i've said before nobody is arguing about whether prices are rising at this moment in time as they clearly are - the important thing is what they will be doing for the next 3-4 years.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
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It's Sunday and my one day off work and I'm not intending to get into one of those pointless Cyclone-must-prove-himself-right arguments, so I'll give in at the start and say Yes, dear, I'm sure you're right
Ermmm, okay, I guess that means you actually have no counter argument but want to cover it up with some excuse about Sunday
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Everyone's listening, and wishing you'd just shut up.
I think you are still caught in pre-2007 thinking Corbyn. People then generally had to pay more than what a house was 'worth' just as they are now but just like then this won't last - in fact it could be a few weeks or months before prices start falling again. If you want to buy go for it, but your house is almost certainly going to be 'worth' a lot less in 2/3 years time if not before that.
Well that is your opinion but mine is that a house is worth what someone will pay for it and if several people all want to pay a large amount maybe that is what the house is worth. Houses in the areas we are looking don't sell for 15-20% under peak prices. Some areas hold their value better than others.
In a few years I think what we buy may be worth a similar amount and if it has dropped a little then that would have only have happened to the house we are living in now too which isn't big enough for us anymore. At least in a new house we won't want to move and by the time we do who knows what the housing market will be doing.
You are choosing to wait to buy a house and that is your decision based on your opinion of what will happen but it is only your opinion and unfortunately for you it isn't guaranteed to end how you want it to. I assume you are a first time buyer and I can see why you would want to wait for the so -called bottom. I also understand your logic about prices, bull traps etc but whilst you think I'm stuck in pre 2007 thinking, I think you neglect to think about the emotional side to buying a house. Whenever you buy a house if there is a number of parties interested in it then you either end up in a bidding war or you lose out on the house. If you happen to be the only person interested then that's when I would worry about resale and value of the house more. I know all the houses we are have or are bidding on would sell in the future and if that was at a lower price than what we bought for then we would be looking to get a similar discount on whatever we bought.
I think there is little chance of prices falling dramatically because as soon as they drop a bit people with money (and there are still plenty of those people about) start buying again. We're a small island and we love property!
Even if the market is flooded with repossessions as more people are made redundant I seriously doubt that prices will fall much lower than they did at the beginning of this year.
Desirable property will always hold a premium and not so desirable property has a rental value investors can't resist. Between people with equity in their current property and investors they'll keep prices up.
For most their home is now a long term investment and savings plan. There's little scope for short term gains unless you are a very good developer (Mrs Beeny!!).
As a side note I just had my flat valued and 2 agents and it was valued it the same as I bought it for in March 2007.
I think there is little chance of prices falling dramatically because as soon as they drop a bit people with money (and there are still plenty of those people about) start buying again. We're a small island and we love property!
Even if the market is flooded with repossessions as more people are made redundant I seriously doubt that prices will fall much lower than they did at the beginning of this year.
Desirable property will always hold a premium and not so desirable property has a rental value investors can't resist. Between people with equity in their current property and investors they'll keep prices up.
For most their home is now a long term investment and savings plan. There's little scope for short term gains unless you are a very good developer (Mrs Beeny!!).
As a side note I just had my flat valued and 2 agents and it was valued it the same as I bought it for in March 2007.
There will be a level that house prices fall to where they have reached their bottom limit and won't fall any further - house prices are never going to be free. However there is no indication we have reached that level yet - the average house price to average wage ratio is around 3.5 and before the crash house prices stood at 6 x average wage. So with a 20% fall we are at about 4.8 now and as prices usually overshoot on the way down they could fall to 3 x average wage or in other words a 50% fall.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
Well that is your opinion but mine is that a house is worth what someone will pay for it and if several people all want to pay a large amount maybe that is what the house is worth. Houses in the areas we are looking don't sell for 15-20% under peak prices. Some areas hold their value better than others.
In a few years I think what we buy may be worth a similar amount and if it has dropped a little then that would have only have happened to the house we are living in now too which isn't big enough for us anymore. At least in a new house we won't want to move and by the time we do who knows what the housing market will be doing.
You are choosing to wait to buy a house and that is your decision based on your opinion of what will happen but it is only your opinion and unfortunately for you it isn't guaranteed to end how you want it to. I assume you are a first time buyer and I can see why you would want to wait for the so -called bottom. I also understand your logic about prices, bull traps etc but whilst you think I'm stuck in pre 2007 thinking, I think you neglect to think about the emotional side to buying a house. Whenever you buy a house if there is a number of parties interested in it then you either end up in a bidding war or you lose out on the house. If you happen to be the only person interested then that's when I would worry about resale and value of the house more. I know all the houses we are have or are bidding on would sell in the future and if that was at a lower price than what we bought for then we would be looking to get a similar discount on whatever we bought.
Of course a house is only worth what somebody is going to pay for it but that can work both ways - you can get an offer higher than what you want or you can get it lower than what you want. For approx. 18 months before the current crash it was, on average, the latter scenario as houses were coming down in price - people weren't having to pay more for a house they wanted.
I know that house prices aren't going to fall because I want them to and I understand that nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. I have never professed otherwise and I am not sure why you or anyone else would waste time with those types of non-arguments.
I won't be particularly worried about the value of my property when I have bought it as I intend to live in it and am not doing it for a business venture. I am purely interested in the price it's at when I buy it - the cheaper the better, for obvious financial reasons. I was meaning that you are better off waiting, if you are wanting prices to bottom out, rather than buying now - I didn't mean you should be worrying about your house price after you have bought it.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
There will be a level that house prices fall to where they have reached their bottom limit and won't fall any further - house prices are never going to be free. However there is no indication we have reached that level yet - the average house price to average wage ratio is around 3.5 and before the crash house prices stood at 6 x average wage. So with a 20% fall we are at about 4.8 now and as prices usually overshoot on the way down they could fall to 3 x average wage or in other words a 50% fall.
By heck bet you're a right bundle of laughs,are you ever positive?
I know that house prices aren't going to fall because I want them to and I understand that nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. I have never professed otherwise and I am not sure why you or anyone else would waste time with those types of non-arguments.
You tell me that I am stuck in pre 2007 thinking and that if I buy now I'm making a mistake and my house will be worth less in 2 years time. All I am saying is that you do not know this. I am not saying I that you think prices will fall becuase you want them to! I am saying that nobody knows what will happen and buying or not buying is a gamble depending on now things turn out. It's not an arguement although having read your previous posts on this and other threads it appears you do like to argue with anyone who has a slighty different perspective to you.
You tell me that I am stuck in pre 2007 thinking and that if I buy now I'm making a mistake and my house will be worth less in 2 years time. All I am saying is that you do not know this. I am not saying I that you think prices will fall becuase you want them to! I am saying that nobody knows what will happen and buying or not buying is a gamble depending on now things turn out. It's not an arguement although having read your previous posts on this and other threads it appears you do like to argue with anyone who has a slighty different perspective to you.
Yeah, I argue my points of view with anyone that disagrees but so does everyone - that's the idea really. If you look back you will see that I don't backtrack and change my mind that often (sometimes you have to obviously as things change i.e. I thought prices would continue falling for the rest of the year but now I don't) so I am not spoiling for a fight for the sake of it.
I still think you are stuck in pre 2007 thinking - I could've worded it a bit better, I admit. You buying now is your choice but saying that people need to pay more for a house in order to get it, is the bit I don't agree with. It might be true for the timebeing (as I originally said) but once the crash resumes (as I believe it will) then this advice is way off the mark IMO.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
Even when/if the crash resumes, if there are several parties interested in a house somebody has to pay more to get it. You can choose for that not to be you like we have on several occasions now but then you might never buy a house which is the way it is starting to look for us unless we do pay more then we would ideally like to. I would say it's not the end of the world to pay a bit more than you wanted if you are going to stay in the house for a number of years and most importantly it is somewhere you really want to live and you will be happy there.
During the falling months most recently there was very little activity and thus I suspect very few bidding wars. It's difficult to encourage a bidding war when everyone who might buy understands that in a months time the house or another similar will cost less.
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I am currently putting mine on the market. We have ben viewing properties over the last few weeks and people are falling over themselves to look at properties.This is of course due to the fact that these areas always sell and the cathchment area of the schools make the value of a property much higher than it should really.
It is awful if you see a house that you like and there are 10 other people looking at it at the same time as you get very competitive about it.
Anyway when I get my HIP mine will be on the market in Crookes and it is a 4 bedroom so we shall see how many people come to see it and then I shall tell you my opinions on what the state of the market is really like then.
Many people are now buying properties with cash as they sold when they panicked about the house price crash and saved their money until more properties came on the market and the prices began to rise.As they are now rising again they are coming out and looking.
Although there are many people who have been seriously affected by this recession, there are still many who have not been and there are still people out there with a lot of money, though the media of course will have you think differently.
Depends on my mood. Do you disagree with what I said then?
I tend to be a bit more positive than you,yes we've had a bad time but there are green shoots(be them small) but I see the downsides but don't just concentrate on those.
You're like winning a million in bookies but highlight the tax you've paid.
There will be a level that house prices fall to where they have reached their bottom limit and won't fall any further - house prices are never going to be free. However there is no indication we have reached that level yet - the average house price to average wage ratio is around 3.5 and before the crash house prices stood at 6 x average wage. So with a 20% fall we are at about 4.8 now and as prices usually overshoot on the way down they could fall to 3 x average wage or in other words a 50% fall.
By heck bet you're a right bundle of laughs,are you ever positive?
Sounds pretty positive to me. He's describing a scenario where people are able to spend less of their incomes on servicing mortgage debts, leaving them with more to spend on enriching their lives.
Yesterday Britain and Australia were officially declared out of recession, that is we both had growth of 0.5% in the last quarter. A reason to be cheerful I think!
Some people think that the market will crash again and go further than before but consider how bleak things looked the middle of last year, pretty dire stuff!! Everything came to a halt and no one could predict when it would start to recover.
The picture looks far brighter now and although unemployment is a set the raise through next year i don't believe we could be in worse shape than last year.
What labour and the bank of England did by lowering interest rates was to save us from the complete disaster a la the 80s because it was crippling inflation and subsequent flood of people losing their houses that was the nail in the coffin.
Too many people have too much money riding on it to let that happen again, we'd all be in serious trouble! What would have to happen to the economy to make people sell at 50% less than the peak?! It doesn't even bear thinking about and what would interest rates look like and the availability of finance, not first time buyer friendly that's for sure!
Whether or not it's for the best long term I believe we've seen the lowest house prices already and I really hope I'm right!
We aren't officially out of recession yet. Yesterday one professional body (The Institute of Chartered Accountants) predicted Q3 growth of 0.5% based on a survey of confidence. Right now, we're only half-way through Q3, and in Q2 the economy shrank by 0.8%.
When the economy does return to growth, which I do hope will be soon, it will still be at much lower level than at the start of the recession. A return to growth doesn't mean a return to pre-recession conditions. Lending will probably still be tight, and public spending cuts, tax increases, and interest rate rises will all come as soon as we can afford them (otherwise we're likely to have our national credit rating downgraded, and servicing the national debt will at best get even more expensive).
Reducing interest rates doesn't prevent inflation, it causes it. We've just about got away with low interest rates so far, but a major worry for the economy going forward is that the only way to fight inflation will be to raise interest rates substantially and/or reverse quantitative easing, and that that will put the brakes on any recovery. It may also cause a wave of repossessions and a further decline in house prices as mortgages become unaffordable.
If you're feeling cheerful, then you haven't been paying attention.
I can't see why anyone who owns their house would be upset at falling prices.
My house is worth less than my mortgage is for because of falling prices. It may be the case that the next house I buy will also cost less (I assume this your point?) but I can't move until I have enough money to pay off the mortgage and put a deposit down on a new house.
Last time I moved I basically paid off the mortgage with the money from the sale, and the extra that I had put into the house as a deposit when I bought it could be used as the deposit on the new house.
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Hi Akrasia, I don't think I said that interest rates prevent inflation only that they have helped people to keep hold of their homes in this recession unlike last time around.
I also haven't said that we'll return to pre-recession conditions at the first sign of growth. You're quite right there are a lot of elements to managing the economy it's a tightrope walk to recovery. I'm not an economist so I'll leave it there.
I feel like I am paying attention and I don't see why news of predicted growth in the economy isn't good news!
Can I ask your predictions for house prices in 2010?
