Latest opinion polls show Labour facing annihilation in Scotland.

what is this. 55-45 is not a close result, in a two horse race like that. Had it been the final stage of a French presidential election, 55-45 would not be considered close at all but a very one sided affair, if maybe not an absolutely massive landslide.

 

the Scottish referendum felt to some like it was close, because it became closer during the campaign than most people thought that it would be before the campaign started. But the result itself, 55-45 is not and was not close.

Nonsense, it was a hell of a lot closer than people initially anticipated. Try and brush it aside all you want, but the simple fact is that an enormous multiple of our PCC's electorate mandate went out and voted for independence of a part of the UK.

Nonsense, it was a hell of a lot closer than people initially anticipated. Try and brush it aside all you want, but the simple fact is that an enormous multiple of our PCC's electorate mandate went out and voted for independence of a part of the UK.

And it seems even more are keen for the SNP to gain more powers for the Scotish Assembley.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca0d77f8-6044-11e4-98e6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Hoo4lWtG

Labour is facing a potential electoral wipeout in Scotland, with a new poll suggesting more than twice as many voters would back the Scottish National party in May’s UK general election.

The Ipsos Mori poll for STV found just 23 per cent of voters would back Labour if a general election were held immediately, compared with 52 per cent who would back the SNP. That would imply the loss of almost all the 41 Westminster seats Labour won in Scotland in 2010.

Such a result could kill the hopes of Ed Miliband, Labour leader, to form a government and would give the SNP unprecedented influence at Westminster despite the Scottish nationalists’ defeat in last month’s independence referendum.

“For Labour this is a massive shock,” said Mark Diffley, Director at Ipsos Mori Scotland.

Too many Scots in Glasgow are totally reliant on Labour for their very existence for them ever to completely lose power in Scotland.

"Two-thirds of Scots want another independence referendum to be held in the next 10 years while more than half think a vote on the country’s future should take place within just five years, a new poll has revealed."

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/politics/two-in-three-scots-want-fresh-referendum-vote-1-6927645

Some years ago the Irish voted against the EU, a year later they had another vote and this time accepted the EU treaty, let the Scots have another go and go.

"Two-thirds of Scots want another independence referendum to be held in the next 10 years while more than half think a vote on the country’s future should take place within just five years, a new poll has revealed."

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/politics/two-in-three-scots-want-fresh-referendum-vote-1-6927645

Some years ago the Irish voted against the EU, a year later they had another vote and this time accepted the EU treaty, let the Scots have another go and go.

That sounds like a plan. To be honest I favoured the union but the concessions that keep being handed to the Scots has cost more that it's worth.

It seems the SNP may well have enough MPs at Westminster come 2015 to be required in any coalition. No prizes for guessing what their demand would be. Would they be prepared to vote for Scottish MPs being excluded from voting on English issues in order to get it?

Too many Scots in Glasgow are totally reliant on Labour for their very existence for them ever to completely lose power in Scotland.

Don't you believe it! "Glasgow - Yes 53.49% No 46.51%". The people of Glasgow voted by a majority to leave the Union.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-29273491

And it seems even more are keen for the SNP to gain more powers for the Scotish Assembley.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca0d77f8-6044-11e4-98e6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Hoo4lWtG

 

Labour is facing a potential electoral wipeout in Scotland, with a new poll suggesting more than twice as many voters would back the Scottish National party in May’s UK general election.

 

The Ipsos Mori poll for STV found just 23 per cent of voters would back Labour if a general election were held immediately, compared with 52 per cent who would back the SNP. That would imply the loss of almost all the 41 Westminster seats Labour won in Scotland in 2010.

 

Such a result could kill the hopes of Ed Miliband, Labour leader, to form a government and would give the SNP unprecedented influence at Westminster despite the Scottish nationalists’ defeat in last month’s independence referendum.

 

“For Labour this is a massive shock,” said Mark Diffley, Director at Ipsos Mori Scotland.

Would you vote for the bungling Ed's mad smiles?

Nonsense, it was a hell of a lot closer than people initially anticipated. Try and brush it aside all you want, but the simple fact is that an enormous multiple of our PCC's electorate mandate went out and voted for independence of a part of the UK.

I'm sorry but you just do not comprehend that a margin of 55-45 in a two horse race is not regarded as close in election arithmetical terms at all by anybody. Like I said, in a French presidential election final run-off, which is the nearest kind of election to a referendum like that, a 55-45 margin is seen as a pretty severe drubbing. When Sarkhozy whupped the hapless Royal in 2007 everybody said she had lost by a mile - and guess what the margin was? 3%. Even in American presidential elections which are not two horse races like French ones, a 5 point margin between the winning and losing candidate is a very large margin indeed and in only a very few elections since 1945 has there been a margin as large as that.

The second 1995 Quebec referendum was close. So was the 1997 Welsh devolution referendum over whether they were to have a parliament. They really were close elections. But the 2014 Scottish election wasn't close at all. Just a little closer than most people thought it would be before the campaign started because YES fought such an excellent campaign.

---------- Post added 01-11-2014 at 16:21 ----------

Don't you believe it! "Glasgow - Yes 53.49% No 46.51%". The people of Glasgow voted by a majority to leave the Union.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-29273491

it is true that is very worrying for Labour because for years and years, the Scots Nats made no headway at all in the real Scottish Labour heartlands until the referendum.

but who is to say that people are going to vote the same way in a General Election as they did in the referendum or in an election for the Scottish Parliament?

Labour got 1.8% less votes in the 2011 Scottish election than the Scots Nats did. In 2010, in the General Election, an election which they lost severely nationwide, they got 12% more than the Scots Nats in Scotland. Of course Labour are going to do better in Scotland in a General Election than they will in a Scottish (and European) one.

 

it is true that is very worrying for Labour because for years and years, the Scots Nats made no headway at all in the real Scottish Labour heartlands until the referendum.

 

but who is to say that people are going to vote the same way in a General Election as they did in the referendum or in an election for the Scottish Parliament?

 

Labour got 1.8% less votes in the 2011 Scottish election than the Scots Nats did. In 2010, in the General Election, an election which they lost severely nationwide, they got 12% more than the Scots Nats in Scotland. Of course Labour are going to do better in Scotland in a General Election than they will in a Scottish (and European) one.

Sadly you seem to be missing the point about all this. The predicted melt down comes from several opinion polls conducted in the last few days asking about peoples voting intentions in a general election and not a referendum. Currently it seems that in Scotland only around 23% of voters intend to vote for the reds and this would lead to the loss of virtually every seat Labour currently hold in Scotland.

except even if the 23% figure you mention - and which I don't believe will be remotely what happens next May - turns out to be correct in the event, it is not going to be the same rate across the whole of Scotland. There is no chance, at all, of Labour losing 'virtually every seat' they hold in Scotland because the Lib Dem vote will fall as well and I doubt if the Tories will do very well either in May.

most of Labour's Scottish majorities are so massive, they have no chance of losing any more than just a few even if they do lose a lot of votes % wise across the country to the SNP. However they are in danger of losing more than the Tories, because the Tories, can lose only one!

the Tories of course used to have a majority of the parliamentary seats in Scotland in living memory. They were capable of beating Labour. Not any more. From a grand total of zero MP's in 1997, they now have in Scotland, 1 MP 17 years later. That is even worse than the Tories have done in Birmingham the secondf largest conurbation in the country where, more recently, they also used to enjoy a majority of MP's.

across the entire UK, you cannot place a positive bet with any bookmaker that Labour will not gain at least one seat, next election nationwide.

even if they lose a few in Scotland, that does not mean they will not gain more in England and Wales than they will lose there.

except even if the 23% figure you mention - and which I don't believe will be remotely what happens next May - turns out to be correct in the event, it is not going to be the same rate across the whole of Scotland. There is no chance, at all, of Labour losing 'virtually every seat' they hold in Scotland because the Lib Dem vote will fall as well and I doubt if the Tories will do very well either in May.

 

most of Labour's Scottish majorities are so massive, they have no chance of losing any more than just a few even if they do lose a lot of votes % wise across the country to the SNP. However they are in danger of losing more than the Tories, because the Tories, can lose only one!

 

the Tories of course used to have a majority of the parliamentary seats in Scotland in living memory. They were capable of beating Labour. Not any more. From a grand total of zero MP's in 1997, they now have in Scotland, 1 MP 17 years later. That is even worse than the Tories have done in Birmingham the secondf largest conurbation in the country where, more recently, they also used to enjoy a majority of MP's.

 

across the entire UK, you cannot place a positive bet with any bookmaker that Labour will not gain at least one seat, next election nationwide.

 

even if they lose a few in Scotland, that does not mean they will not gain more in England and Wales than they will lose there.

If ever there was a person in denial once confronted with their worst nightmare it is you.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297729-stv-poll-labour-would-annihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/

Wake up and sniff the coffee. Check the opinion polls and get yourself a stiff drink. It's the Ed Factor.

Like you said the Tories and L/Ds will get pasted in Scotland too. The Tories will very likley lose the only seat they hold there.

I'm sorry but you just do not comprehend that a margin of 55-45 in a two horse race is not regarded as close in election arithmetical terms at all by anybody. ...

No I am sorry that you don't understand the following: When friend Dave agreed to go ahead with the referendum he was working on polls that suggested less than 30% would vote yes anyway. After the two year run-up the election result was a lot closer: 45-55. I don't care how you regard that, the underlying message is pretty clear: A hell of a lot more people in Scotland wanted out of the UK than was anticipated.

These people were less likely to return to the traditional parties anyway because they want to ensure that this evo-max thing becomes stronger.

Now take the referendum turn-out and compare that with a general election turnout:

Referendum: 84,6% (44,6 voted yes out of 3,6 million voters - so roughly 1,7 million out of the top of my head)

Last general election: 63,8% (a total of 2,456 million voters just over 1 million Labour voters)

It doesn't take a whole lot of imagination to realise that those 1,7 million Yes voters are going to be upset with the way the promised speedy resolution, promised by Mr. Brown no less, is being stalled left, right and centre.

So all of a sudden, instead of the 490,000 SNP voters we could well see over a million. Guess what is going to happen to Labour in that scenario? You don't need to guess, the link in the previous post illustrates what will happen.

Sure, it is probably exaggerated by the poll effect, but don't underestimate the power of this referendum on making people growing sympathetic to the SNP. Sturgeon is a big, big name in Scotland now and she isn't going to leave the media alone until the general elections and you can bet a thousand quid that the stalling of the Devo-max is going to give her all the ammunition she needs to do just that.