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The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

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17-07-2017, 12:03   #1021
I1L2T3
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Originally Posted by retep View Post
Yes with a living wage.
Any gains from wages would be wiped out by inflation, and the sacred cow of high house prices would need to be slaughtered too.
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17-07-2017, 12:06   #1022
chalga
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Originally Posted by retep View Post
Yes with a living wage.
I just quoted from the British Chambers of Commerce last night[post 1000], where they said that low paid workers should only be paid inflation covering wage increases,so I think you have a conflict here,how are you going to get around that?
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17-07-2017, 12:24   #1023
retep
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I1L2T3 View Post
Any gains from wages would be wiped out by inflation, and the sacred cow of high house prices would need to be slaughtered too.
So it seems you and chalga are quite happy to keep immigrant workers on low wages and deny UK workers a living wage.
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17-07-2017, 12:24   #1024
I1L2T3
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Just to pick up on what loob said earlier, yes many companies have advanced plans to relocate portions of their businesses. For some it's moving a big section of the business and others it's just creation of small companies in the EU to carry on business.

Make no mistake though, the damage is immense. All the clients were dealing with are despairing at the governments performance. Confidence is melting away every day. We're maybe one or two months away from some truly panicky and apocalyptic messages coming out from business leaders. The damage is close to irreversible.

The only way that things can be stabilised is a rapid agreement to a transition period, and that transition period needs to be open ended. This is logical and should be possible to agree: it's why Fox has been squealing over the weekend about time tlimited transition periods. He knows that Hammond is right and he knows that a rational negotiator would conclude the same and push for it.

I think the Brexit leaders have got three months max and then they'll need to be removed.
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Last edited by I1L2T3; 17-07-2017 at 12:26.
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17-07-2017, 13:24   #1025
L00b
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I1L2T3 View Post
<...> All the clients were dealing with are despairing at the governments performance. Confidence is melting away every day. <...>
Here is a real-life practical example insofar as our business is concerned:
Quote:
Here's one illustration of how thin this red line can be. Since the referendum, the government has confirmed that it still intends to join a new Unified Patent Court that is being set up by EU member states, even though the new court will regard ECJ decisions as legally binding and refer its own legal questions to the ECJ.
source (BBC article about CJEU today)

Now, I mentioned this very issue before on here (in fact, over a year ago before the referendum - plus maybe a couple times since), so it's interesting to see the BBC mentioning it independently as an example.

It's exactly this sort of self-contradicting double-speak by the government which has been burning, and continues to burn (ever deeper and faster) business confidence at both ends: it is legally impossible for the UK to be a member of the UPCA, if it Brexits from the EU cleanly from ECJ. Simple as.

So why is the government still making official statements, 12 months past the referendum and all the Brexit means Brexit hoo-raah, to the effect that it wants in?

It makes no sense whatsoever, unless (i) the government has (long had-) no intention to Brexit clean from the ECJ anyway (I still wonder what May told Ghosn way back when...), or (ii) the government is so disjointed and dysfunctional that the right hand has no earthly f clue what the left is doing, and reciprocally.

Whenever you hear Brit airlines moaning about Open Skies, Brit big pharma moaning about the EMA, Brit doctors moaning about isotopes and EURATOM, JIT-based assembling manufacturers moaning about customs procedures...it's all exactly the same issue: all are facing respective real-life problems and constraints arising out of the legal and technical consequences of Brexiting, all have a same need to plan and implement replacements/alternatives early enough to avoid a cliff-edge disruption (in an ideal world, to achieve a seamless transition) but, from the government whose responsibility and job it is to deliver a stable enough new context ('relationship') for the said planning...nothing but rethoric and, whenever the rethoric tank gets empty, static.

It's no f way to run a railroad, people. So, irrespective, we're now setting up shop in the EU: that way we'll definitely get a look in for UPC procedures and services. Could have been UK (Sheffield) jobs instead, but we haven't heard jack s from the government in terms of strategy and practicals whereby, with 18 months to go, we simply can't wait any longer.

The UPCA is an international agreement, by the way. Negotiated by the UK with the other participants, in substantially the same way that the UK proposes to negotiate further international agreements (FTAs and the like) post-Brexit.


Last edited by L00b; 17-07-2017 at 13:41.
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17-07-2017, 13:51   #1026
andyofborg
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Originally Posted by Hairyloon View Post
Especially with "unemployment at a record low"...
But once companies start leaving or closing then there will be plenty of people to work in the fields.
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17-07-2017, 14:09   #1027
I1L2T3
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But once companies start leaving or closing then there will be plenty of people to work in the fields.
Most likely for me will be moving to follow the clients abroad, if I stay in this company. We're looking at 2022-23 for all the moves to fully play out. Only the essentials will be done by 2019.
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17-07-2017, 15:17   #1028
chalga
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retep View Post
So it seems you and chalga are quite happy to keep immigrant workers on low wages and deny UK workers a living wage.
I think the BCC are quite happy to do that,seeing as they are the ones saying it,I just quote what they say.
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17-07-2017, 15:37   #1029
I1L2T3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retep View Post
So it seems you and chalga are quite happy to keep immigrant workers on low wages and deny UK workers a living wage.
Wrong on both counts
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17-07-2017, 17:06   #1030
gomgeg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I1L2T3 View Post
Any gains from wages would be wiped out by inflation, and the sacred cow of high house prices would need to be slaughtered too.
Totally agree, would you believe some people are arguing on another thread for an increase for public sector employees.
As someone who voted Labour til Gordon Brown became PM I think that George Osborne had got it right by raising tax thresholds for people on lower incomes.
But I don't think he went far enough, I would personally like to see thresholds raised to a point where people working 40 hours on minimum wage didn't pay any income tax, and partly pay for it by cutting benefits for the skivers who have no intention of working.
That's one of the reasons I still can't vote labour, even as someone who would be a natural labour voter as their referendum would have immediately led to higher inflation again leading to higher interest rates penalising anyone with a mortgage, and no we haven't got one.
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17-07-2017, 19:35   #1031
andyofborg
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Originally Posted by gomgeg View Post
Totally agree, would you believe some people are arguing on another thread for an increase for public sector employees.
public sector employees have to pay the rent/mortgage, buy food and all the thing private sector employees do. if they can't afford to do this then they will leave which means the public sector collapses which means no hospitals, no schools, no bin collections, no police, no fire service. Moving these into the private sector wont change things because unless they offered a decent wage they couldn't recruit and that means they wont make much profit. Charities wont help either, since they would still need to pay people to do the work and while there are some very good examples of charities working in the public sector there are some very bad ones too.

if your claim to be a natural labour voter is true then you would understand this and there are some core services which should be owned and operated by the state with proper staffing and decently paid staff.
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17-07-2017, 21:06   #1032
Magilla
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A view from across the pond:-

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blo...g-increasingly
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18-07-2017, 11:27   #1033
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Uh-oh, the EU is about call out the UK over its unending flip-flopping.

Michel Barnier is prepared to ‘stall’ Brexit talks over UK bill.
Quote:
The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, is prepared to “stall” Brexit talks over the British government’s unwillingness to present proposals for calculating the U.K.’s financial obligations, according to two EU diplomats.

On Monday, the first day of full-scale Brexit negotiations, EU officials voiced mounting frustration over the U.K.’s apparent lack of preparedness for serious negotiations.

<...>

According to the diplomats, the message Barnier planned to deliver, while not quite an ultimatum, was intended to convey his view that negotiations were futile without better engagement by the British side.
He's not wrong: it's high time for the UK to sht or get off the pot drop the rethorical act and get on with negotiating, tbh.

And it's the worst possible news for the UK, because Barnier stalling does not pause or stop the Article 50 clock. Tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc....
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18-07-2017, 12:11   #1034
nightrider
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Quote:
Originally Posted by L00b View Post
Uh-oh, the EU is about call out the UK over its unending flip-flopping.

Michel Barnier is prepared to ‘stall’ Brexit talks over UK bill.He's not wrong: it's high time for the UK to sht or get off the pot drop the rethorical act and get on with negotiating, tbh.

And it's the worst possible news for the UK, because Barnier stalling does not pause or stop the Article 50 clock. Tic-toc-tic-toc-tic-toc....
I wonder how long it takes for this to be spun as the EU refusing to negotiate and thus we have to consider just walking away from the EU with no deal.
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18-07-2017, 12:18   #1035
L00b
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I wonder how long it takes for this to be spun as the EU refusing to negotiate and thus we have to consider just walking away from the EU with no deal.
Well, if you're talking about the Daily Express or the Daily Mail, I'd give it a day, tops: watch tomorrow's headlines
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18-07-2017, 15:19   #1036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I1L2T3 View Post
If Putin had devised a plan to divide the EU that would be it.

But we know you're just making stuff up now.....
Putin doesn't have to devise a plan. He can sit back and watch whilst the Europeans trip over themselves and undermine their own peace and security.

If you find an Englishman's argument difficult to stomach perhaps you'll give more consideration to this [German newspaper]?


Quote:
Originally Posted by chalga View Post
Brexit was supposed to be the forgotten and voiceless making themselves heard and wanting an end to globalisation and a better life for themselves as a result
That plight is not forgotten. In fact it's influencing our trade negotiations. China, America, and India are all very keen on our regions which is a godsend from the govt's prospective because ties in beautifully with the wider economic agenda of rebalancing the economy.
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18-07-2017, 15:51   #1037
chalga
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Originally Posted by Puggie View Post
Putin doesn't have to devise a plan. He can sit back and watch whilst the Europeans trip over themselves and undermine their own peace and security.

If you find an Englishman's argument difficult to stomach perhaps you'll give more consideration to this [German newspaper]?




That plight is not forgotten. In fact it's influencing our trade negotiations. China, America, and India are all very keen on our regions which is a godsend from the govt's prospective because ties in beautifully with the wider economic agenda of rebalancing the economy.
Ah,that's wonderful news,so when Trump keeps bellowing 'America first',he's just forgetting to tell his citizens that he has to regenerate Blackpool before that.
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18-07-2017, 16:05   #1038
gomgeg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andyofborg View Post
public sector employees have to pay the rent/mortgage, buy food and all the thing private sector employees do. if they can't afford to do this then they will leave which means the public sector collapses which means no hospitals, no schools, no bin collections, no police, no fire service. Moving these into the private sector wont change things because unless they offered a decent wage they couldn't recruit and that means they wont make much profit. Charities wont help either, since they would still need to pay people to do the work and while there are some very good examples of charities working in the public sector there are some very bad ones too.

if your claim to be a natural labour voter is true then you would understand this and there are some core services which should be owned and operated by the state with proper staffing and decently paid staff.
Nice bit of selection from my post. I was replying to someone else and agreeing with them that all pay increases lead to inflation and saying that in my opinion the way to deal with low pay is through the tax system, and that's what the forum is about opinion.
You say public sector employees will leave, I don't think so, where will they go to get the same terms and conditions, pensions etc? Perhaps a few but certainly not many, I worked in the public sector for a while, the first job I'd ever had with sick pay and couldn't believe how many were taking advantage of it and always moaning and saying they were going to leave, even when the chance of enhanced redundancy came up only a few applied for it.
As I've said on the public sector pay thread whenever it's suggested that public sector contracts are put out to private tender the employees and unions are always up in arms because they know pay and conditions will be worse.
I know plenty in the private sector doing physically demanding jobs who would have jumped at the chance of working in the public sector and getting early retirement.
By the way, I've quoted all your post and not just been selective.
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18-07-2017, 16:22   #1039
chalga
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Puggie View Post
Putin doesn't have to devise a plan. He can sit back and watch whilst the Europeans trip over themselves and undermine their own peace and security.

If you find an Englishman's argument difficult to stomach perhaps you'll give more consideration to this [German newspaper]?



So you are linking to a German Newspaper quoting what Daniel Hannan is writing in his book?
You just get better and better,pure comedy gold.
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18-07-2017, 18:00   #1040
Carlinate
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Anyway, as we proceed on our way to hell in a handcart we may as well make the best of it and have a bit of a laugh.

http://disq.us/url?url=http%3A%2F%2F...k&cuid=3093723

That is the Irish verdict on the Conservative and DUP pact.

Rendered musically it hits the nail on the head in an amusing fashion.
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