Would you credit it?

Below is an email I received which gives an insight into our future. An interesting read:

Changing Times

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best 'Go' player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognise faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lifes each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighbourhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream around 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as they want, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amout of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they have already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their fields instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at 10$ in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

Was this from the same dude that drops those odd leaflets through the door??

It's abit best/worse case scenario on most of those things.

Indeed, it appears to be a delve into the mind of a complete nutbag.

Things are changing at breakneck speed yet our government is ridiculously slow to react. 30 years before HS2 is built? Still no decision on Heathrow's expansion; Planning applications that take years to go through...

A government system that belongs in the 18th Century and prizes archaic 'tradition' over modern working conditions and progress; A school curriculum that harps back to the 1950's, a lack of investment in research and development and a willingness to let breakthrough innovation go abroad. The list is endless. We really need a rethink and a new attitude to modernisation.

Was this from the same dude that drops those odd leaflets through the door??

This?

http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?t=204250

Indeed, it appears to be a delve into the mind of a complete nutbag.

---------- Post added 25-05-2016 at 13:27 ----------

Things are changing at breakneck speed yet our government is ridiculously slow to react. 30 years before HS2 is built? Still no decision on Heathrow's expansion; Planning applications that take years to go through...

 

A government system that belongs in the 18th Century and prizes archaic 'tradition' over modern working conditions and progress; A school curriculum that harps back to the 1950's, a lack of investment in research and development and a willingness to let breakthrough innovation go abroad. The list is endless. We really need a rethink and a new attitude to modernisation.

Why? Which bits aren't possible? I'd imagine Kodak employees might have made your comment.

 

---------- Post added 25-05-2016 at 13:27 ----------

 

I agree - Spot on!

Nurses diagnose cancer, are you sure?

Why? Which bits aren't possible? I'd imagine Kodak employees might have made your comment.

 

---------- Post added 25-05-2016 at 13:27 ----------

 

I agree - Spot on!

Please don't make me read it again and show why its crap. One example "most car companies might go bankrupt". Jesus Christ, really? That the best this fountain of wisdom has got? Techincally ALL car companies might go bust, or merge or evolve. Which is exactly what Kodak didn't do, whilst all their competitors did.

Why? Which bits aren't possible? I'd imagine Kodak employees might have made your comment.[

It exaggerates what happened to Kodak and then extrapolates a whole load of unrelated stuff to generate a sensationalist bunch of scenarios.

This?

 

http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?t=204250

Herald (Today and Tomorrow) is what I was thinking of, couldn't remember the name.

---------- Post added 25-05-2016 at 15:58 ----------

Why? Which bits aren't possible? I'd imagine Kodak employees might have made your comment.

Everything is very sensationalised and poorly thought through.

On the one hand he says the entire world will run on driveless cars, but then he go's onto say all the car companies are going to collapse???

So if the car companies aren't making the cars who is???

I received the same information in an email from a friend in Canada on 20 May.

I wonder if we both know the same person or maybe it's just a coincidence.

 

So if the car companies aren't making the cars who is???

Perhaps it's google. Except that makes them a car company then...