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The Consequences of Brexit (part 2)

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11-01-2017, 20:44   #2221
chalga
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Quote:
Originally Posted by apelike View Post
I think the people in charge are now admitting the forecasting on the risks of Brexit were wrong, and now Carney is also admitting it. He also stated: "The risk was greater for continental Europe than for the UK."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38587625

As pointed out before and again now, the pound will recover even if it drops so nothing to worry about.
What he said was that the risk of not having a transitional deal in place before Brexit actually happens was,in his opinion,more of a risk for the EU.Now there are quite a few 'transitional deals' that could be done,Brexiteers have even warned against a transitional deal,so as far as I can see,it all comes down to the negotiators on the 2 sides on what they think is the best transitional deal for them,if indeed the UK wants to go for that,which may or may not be the case.
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11-01-2017, 20:54   #2222
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Originally Posted by unbeliever View Post
I thought we'd moved on. Did yo want to carry on with fund with false analogies?
In the context of politics an idea which nobody has even the outline of an scheme to implement is rather a non-starter.
In tech R&D people are I suppose free to pursue pie in the sky idea with a low probability of success.

I want world peace. I have no meaningful scheme to get it. Have I had a "good idea"?

Does that not rather settle the matter?
I'd call world peace a good idea.
Regarding DT though I doubt that he can figure out how to tie his own shoelaces in a morning...

---------- Post added 11-01-2017 at 19:56 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by gomgeg View Post
It's also amusing how you jump in without reading what I put. I never said Trump won a majority of the vote.
Nor did I say that you said that. Fail.
Quote:
I said he won using the US system.
And I asked if you were aware that he got <50% of the vote, since that's what you keep carping on about with regards to the referendum.
Quote:
But you carry on putting words in other people's mouths, it suits the remoaners agenda.
And you keep pretending that I've put words in your mouth so that you can feel outraged. It's about right for a brexit voter, doesn't bother to actually read or understand what's been written.
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11-01-2017, 22:44   #2223
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Originally Posted by Cyclone View Post
I'd call world peace a good idea.
Regarding DT though I doubt that he can figure out how to tie his own shoelaces in a morning...

---------- Post added 11-01-2017 at 19:56 ----------


Nor did I say that you said that. Fail.
And I asked if you were aware that he got <50% of the vote, since that's what you keep carping on about with regards to the referendum.
And you keep pretending that I've put words in your mouth so that you can feel outraged. It's about right for a brexit voter, doesn't bother to actually read or understand what's been written.
For someone who spends every waking hour sneering at people and calling them uneducated you're not very good at reading are you David.
What's the fact that Donald Trump won on the US electoral system got to do with the referendum being won on a majority system?
But we all know it's a usual trick of yours having lost the argument on the referendum. Fail. But you're good at that.
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12-01-2017, 10:00   #2224
unbeliever
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Carney told the treasury select committee yesterday that the Brexit risk to the UK financial stability had been greatly overstated and there was in fact a far greater risk to the rest of the EU.
Now tell me again how weak our negotiating poisition is all that other bogus "experts predict disaster" rubbish.
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12-01-2017, 10:04   #2225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gomgeg View Post
For someone who spends every waking hour sneering at people and calling them uneducated you're not very good at reading are you David.
Well, lets skip the hyperbole and the ad hominem attack and just ask who's David?
Quote:
What's the fact that Donald Trump won on the US electoral system got to do with the referendum being won on a majority system?
I found the ironic contrast to be amusing.
Quote:
But we all know it's a usual trick of yours having lost the argument on the referendum. Fail. But you're good at that.
What's a usual trick? You're the one who's pretending that I said something I didn't, so that you can get all outraged about it. Just read things before you get all frothy at mouth and start hammering the keyboard.

---------- Post added 12-01-2017 at 09:07 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by unbeliever View Post
Carney told the treasury select committee yesterday that the Brexit risk to the UK financial stability had been greatly overstated and there was in fact a far greater risk to the rest of the EU.
Now tell me again how weak our negotiating poisition is all that other bogus "experts predict disaster" rubbish.
If (as some people on this thread wish) we end up with a 'hard brexit' he said this

Quote:
The governor also told members of the Treasury Select Committee that a period of transition was "highly advisable".
"If there is not such a transition put in place, in our view it will have consequences. We will work to mitigate those consequences as much as possible," he said.
So the risks are reduced because the bank (lead by him) has taken mitigating actions (what exactly is unclear), but if we follow a hard exit then it will have consequences.

Time will tell of course, unfortunately I don't want to be able to say "I told you so" when the entire economy has crashed and you're out of work living on a park bench. I don't think I'll get much satisfaction from it.
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https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmn...qpXEZMGnJHf3Wg
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12-01-2017, 10:18   #2226
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyclone View Post
So the risks are reduced because the bank (lead by him) has taken mitigating actions (what exactly is unclear)
Re. bold bit: 1, 2. FYP

This was discussed in a Brexit thread or another (since closed) at the time, I seem to recall the Leave brigade (here and figureheads in the media) frothing at the mouth over his public intervention (because of the apolitical nature of his post).

Not that I'd expect them to show any acknowledgement, never mind contrition, for it now, of course. Nah, far better to gloat over his 'wrong' predictions (which were made before he unilaterally took action this past summer towards mitigating the breakage) and, conveniently, ignore entirely his UK-helping deeds since June

I'm close to despairing at the level of imbecilic crassness, to which politics is currently falling like a lead weight, in this country and elsewhere.

Last edited by L00b; 12-01-2017 at 10:29.
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12-01-2017, 10:37   #2227
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Thanks for the links L00b.
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Youtube videos, snowboarding, climbing, bad drivers.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmn...qpXEZMGnJHf3Wg
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12-01-2017, 11:08   #2228
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The experts predictions are steadily being replaced by facts as reality stubbornly refuses to obey the predictions from project fear. I still think Carney's intervention was unwise but it's done now and it doesn't really matter.

As for the EU negotiations, the real battle is likely to be between the council who will be firmly for free trade with the UK and the commission who will want to "punish" the UK for daring to leave, and deter others from following the same path or demanding better terms.
We may learn a lot from this about who is really in charge of the EU.
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12-01-2017, 21:19   #2229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by L00b View Post
Re. bold bit: 1, 2. FYP

This was discussed in a Brexit thread or another (since closed) at the time, I seem to recall the Leave brigade (here and figureheads in the media) frothing at the mouth over his public intervention (because of the apolitical nature of his post).

Not that I'd expect them to show any acknowledgement, never mind contrition, for it now, of course. Nah, far better to gloat over his 'wrong' predictions (which were made before he unilaterally took action this past summer towards mitigating the breakage) and, conveniently, ignore entirely his UK-helping deeds since June
There is very little in those links that give out much information as to exactly what he has done and achieved with his UK helping deeds since they were published last year.

Maybe you could sum them up and explain what effect they have had?
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12-01-2017, 21:21   #2230
andyofborg
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Originally Posted by unbeliever View Post
The experts predictions are steadily being replaced by facts as reality stubbornly refuses to obey the predictions from project fear. I still think Carney's intervention was unwise but it's done now and it doesn't really matter.
nothing has happened yet, we are in a "phony brexit", situation the real test will come in the days following the end of the first days negotiations when the governments plan becomes clear, though it appears mrs may is going to give us a sneak preview next tuesday so that may or may not shed some light on things.

in the meantime, people and businesses have been far more optimistic than perhaps was envisaged before the referendum and the bank of england has cut interest rates and pumped billions into the economy to inflate the asset bubbles, people went on one last fling at christmas and the fall in sterling means that foreign companies can purchase and asset strip uk companies at fire sale prices.

regardless of what happens, the price rises as a result of the fall in sterling will start to appear along with an increase in inflation. the increase in inflation might prompt businesses to invest to increase productivity which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

we've touched on this in the past, and that is over the last 40 years cross eu supply chains have developed where components flow across the eu borders easily and tariff free. if the end deal undermines the uk's place in those chains then it's hard to see how many of the businesses involved can survive without massive job losses. of course, eventually, they may be able to reestablish their businesses but that might take years with the uk suffering high unemployment and all its consequences in the meantime.

the brexiteers seem to be pinning their hopes on liam fox's trade deals and while these will make our exports easier, they also make imports easier too. so unless he's found some countries with no exporters who want to deal with us, any growth in employment due to exports is likely to be balanced by jobs lost because imports have replaced home produced products.

we also need to consider that the world seems to be moving towards more protectionism, particularly america. also, as we run headlong into these deals lets not forget that many of the things about the TTIP treaty which got everyone all worked up tend to be standard parts of these sorts of deals so all these arguments will reappear, especially as we try and do deals with the more economically advanced countries.

there are other important things other than trade deals which no one seems to have spoken about, things like the erasmus and horizon2020 projects if we pull out of those then it will seriously limit the teaching and research potential of our universities and other organisations,

also, the common aviation area, leaving that might affect the ability of uk based airlines to operate in the eu, and as there are eu level deals with them, the us and canada.

and a final thing, will we leave the european medicine regulatory framework?
some of the consequences are explored here......

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...bs-and-the-nhs

it may not matter anyway

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/...enus-Wolf-Moon

lets hope your soul is clean, just in case............
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Last edited by andyofborg; 12-01-2017 at 21:38.
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13-01-2017, 09:24   #2231
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andyofborg View Post
nothing has happened yet, we are in a "phony brexit", situation the real test will come in the days following the end of the first days negotiations when the governments plan becomes clear, though it appears mrs may is going to give us a sneak preview next tuesday so that may or may not shed some light on things.

in the meantime, people and businesses have been far more optimistic than perhaps was envisaged before the referendum and the bank of england has cut interest rates and pumped billions into the economy to inflate the asset bubbles, people went on one last fling at christmas and the fall in sterling means that foreign companies can purchase and asset strip uk companies at fire sale prices.

regardless of what happens, the price rises as a result of the fall in sterling will start to appear along with an increase in inflation. the increase in inflation might prompt businesses to invest to increase productivity which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

we've touched on this in the past, and that is over the last 40 years cross eu supply chains have developed where components flow across the eu borders easily and tariff free. if the end deal undermines the uk's place in those chains then it's hard to see how many of the businesses involved can survive without massive job losses. of course, eventually, they may be able to reestablish their businesses but that might take years with the uk suffering high unemployment and all its consequences in the meantime.

the brexiteers seem to be pinning their hopes on liam fox's trade deals and while these will make our exports easier, they also make imports easier too. so unless he's found some countries with no exporters who want to deal with us, any growth in employment due to exports is likely to be balanced by jobs lost because imports have replaced home produced products.

we also need to consider that the world seems to be moving towards more protectionism, particularly america. also, as we run headlong into these deals lets not forget that many of the things about the TTIP treaty which got everyone all worked up tend to be standard parts of these sorts of deals so all these arguments will reappear, especially as we try and do deals with the more economically advanced countries.

there are other important things other than trade deals which no one seems to have spoken about, things like the erasmus and horizon2020 projects if we pull out of those then it will seriously limit the teaching and research potential of our universities and other organisations,

also, the common aviation area, leaving that might affect the ability of uk based airlines to operate in the eu, and as there are eu level deals with them, the us and canada.

and a final thing, will we leave the european medicine regulatory framework?
some of the consequences are explored here......

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...bs-and-the-nhs

it may not matter anyway

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/...enus-Wolf-Moon

lets hope your soul is clean, just in case............

I think that European integration has far less market value than some would have us believe and that bad EU policy similarly has far more negative value.
Therefore the net effect on the UK economy from Brexit is positive, as the leave campaign always argued. It really isn't a surprise to us.
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13-01-2017, 09:30   #2232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unbeliever View Post
I think that European integration has far less market value than some would have us believe and that bad EU policy similarly has far more negative value.
Therefore the net effect on the UK economy from Brexit is positive, as the leave campaign always argued. It really isn't a surprise to us.
It'll come as a surprise when it turns out that this statement is wrong then

Wait until the actual plans are A) announced and B) implemented, before making value judgments. I admit I didn't at first, but, as you will notice from my relative absence in this thread, that is exactly the phase I am in now.
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13-01-2017, 09:33   #2233
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Originally Posted by tzijlstra View Post
It'll come as a surprise when it turns out that this statement is wrong then

Wait until the actual plans are A) announced and B) implemented, before making value judgments. I admit I didn't at first, but, as you will notice from my relative absence in this thread, that is exactly the phase I am in now.

I'm not operating on a high degree of certainty, just my estimation of the balance of probabilities. I admit it's a gamble.
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13-01-2017, 09:39   #2234
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I'm not operating on a high degree of certainty, just my estimation of the balance of probabilities. I admit it's a gamble.
Losing a couple of quid because your horse falls at the first fence in the grand national is a gamble. Burning the economy to the ground is insanity not a gamble.
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13-01-2017, 09:47   #2235
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Losing a couple of quid because your horse falls at the first fence in the grand national is a gamble. Burning the economy to the ground is insanity not a gamble.
Thanks. We we're having a reasoned and measured discussion there for a moment. Don't know what we were thinking. Hang on and I'll come up with a similarly exaggerated counter-claim...


German domination, everybody eating garlic and straight bananas. Also Johnny foreigner taking all our jobs and dictatorship and slavery and such!
There is that better?
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13-01-2017, 09:47   #2236
andyofborg
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I think that European integration has far less market value than some would have us believe and that bad EU policy similarly has far more negative value
For the sector's which have fully integrated and where our companies have fully engaged then the value is immense.
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13-01-2017, 09:48   #2237
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For the sector's which have fully integrated and where our companies have fully engaged then the value is immense.
So far the markets disagree with you.
Sometimes for every door that closes, 2 open. Creative destruction.

It was always about politics for me anyway. I don't want to be assimilated into the glorious European collective. And it turns out that resistance is far from futile.
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13-01-2017, 10:01   #2238
andyofborg
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So far the markets disagree with you.
Sometimes for every door that closes, 2 open. Creative destruction.
Most times though you find yourself locked out in the cold.

Quote:
It was always about politics for me anyway. I don't want to be assimilated into the glorious European collective.
Being realistic and in spite of the grand aspirations that was always a very unlikely outcome.

Quote:
And it turns out that resistance is far from futile.
We've not left yet
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13-01-2017, 10:04   #2239
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Originally Posted by apelike View Post
There is very little in those links that give out much information as to exactly what he has done and achieved with his UK helping deeds since they were published last year.

Maybe you could sum them up and explain what effect they have had?
Maybe I would have, if all Brexit-related threads -without exception- did not always descend into the same arguments, stereotypes and ad hominems. Per e.g. the latest posts since mine, and so many hundreds before them, not to mention the thousands in the numerous closed threads.

I can even foretell what you reply to this post will be, based on forum stereotype (I can play that game too ): "ha, you're not summing up/explaining, that's because you can't, Carney has done nowt, you're wrong, nah-nah-nah".

Yawn. I've gotten bored by it, and I'm done doing the brickwall head-hitting thing about Brexit.

I've put a couple of brief references for Cyclone's benefit, so if you have a particular interest about them, do your own research from these articles, think for yourself and answer your own questions. If you can be bothered. I don't particularly care either way, since I wasn't talking to you anyway.

EDIT: no malice or offence meant with the above, apelike. I'm taking a self-imposed 'working vacation' from Brexit threads and SF.

Last edited by L00b; 13-01-2017 at 10:10.
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13-01-2017, 10:12   #2240
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A policeman in France pulls over a German driver.

"License please?"

"Here you go."

"Occupation?"

"Nein nein! Just on holiday!"
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