The Conservative Party - all discussion here please.

SNP gains will nearly all be at the expence of Labour and Libdems. Predictions have SNP gaining 13 seats.

 

hadn't you better make your mind up just how many parliamentary seats you think the Scottish Nationalist party are going to get, in Westiminster next GE? One minute, you said it was going to be 7. The next 13. You've just doubled, your prediction of their representation from one post to the next.

Its pretty easy. In post 254 I ran the figures from the betting shops of how they expected the UK parliament to look after the 2015 election. Those figures were from before the Scottish referendum. In my post 260 I followed up with the latest opinion poll of Scottish voting intentions for the 2015 election. That poll was conducted last week after the Scottish referendum and produced a prediction of 19 seats for the SNP.

I don't need to make up my mind up about SNP seats as I am merely quoting figures from other sources. In the last 3 or 4 months those sources have upped the SNPs prospects from 7 seats to 19.

Its pretty easy. In post 254 I ran the figures from the betting shops of how they expected the UK parliament to look after the 2015 election. Those figures were from before the Scottish referendum. In my post 260 I followed up with the latest opinion poll of Scottish voting intentions for the 2015 election. That poll was conducted last week after the Scottish referendum and produced a prediction of 19 seats for the SNP.

 

I don't need to make up my mind up about SNP seats as I am merely quoting figures from other sources. In the last 3 or 4 months those sources have upped the SNPs prospects from 7 seats to 19.

Very interesting that you have taken the time to research in this way. As far as I recollect the bookies have not usually been far out with their predictions. Makes a refreshing change from those on here who just "reckon" and in their reckoning show their predisposition to the inverted snobbery that pervades their thinking.

Very interesting that you have taken the time to research in this way. As far as I recollect the bookies have not usually been far out with their predictions. Makes a refreshing change from those on here who just "reckon" and in their reckoning show their predisposition to the inverted snobbery that pervades their thinking.

Yes it does make you think. Just saying that Labour is on 33% is meaningless unless you take accounbt of where that 33% is. It does seem to have slipped under the radar how much some parties have lost ground in key areas.

The poll conducted in Scotland showed some seats with a 40% swing to the SNP.

This is a seat by seat assesment of seats that are currenly expected to go over to SNP.

http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/SNP_seat_gains.html

th Scots Nats are not bothered, about Westminster and they do not care, particularly much about the 2015 geneal election. What they are bothered about is not the Westminster, London election in 2015 at all, but the Scottish parliamenary election in Edinburgh in 2016 which body, they want to continue to control.

th Scots Nats are not bothered, about Westminster and they do not care, particularly much about the 2015 geneal election. What they are bothered about is not the Westminster, London election in 2015 at all, but the Scottish parliamenary election in Edinburgh in 2016 which body, they want to continue to control.

Quite true, but the point that the SNP may do very well in 2015 seems to indicate that its Labour who will suffer in Scotland thereby limiting their seats in Westminster.

Similarly, if UKIP do well, they will tend to damage the Tories more than Labour BUT, don't underestimate the damage they will do to Labour.

The Lib Dems are a dead parrot. Which, I suggest, is a shame because I believe they tried to act honorably in the coalition but have borne the brunt of voter anger.

I believe the Tories will scrape a victory, by about 15/20 seats.

Worst scenario? Tory/UKIP coalition. The nutters will take over.

Im a Tory

Quite true, but the point that the SNP may do very well in 2015 seems to indicate that its Labour who will suffer in Scotland thereby limiting their seats in Westminster.

So why did Cameron want Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom?

So why did Cameron want Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom?

because he didn't want to go down in history as the prime minister who broke up the Union

Five million people now on low pay http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29771470

Regarding Labour chances, I noticed that the Mail did not seem to take into consideration their probable melt down in Scotland.

Even m ore so according to Alex Salmond this morning Alan!

---------- Post added 26-10-2014 at 09:28 ----------

If it becomes more difficult for businesses to circumvent minimum wage laws then there may be an increase in prices. That is literally the price of having a minimum wage.

Fruit and veg prices are already a rip off! How can Sainsbury's sell a cabbage at £1.20 and Lidl at 59p? Who's making the killing - certainly not the farmers!

---------- Post added 26-10-2014 at 09:43 ----------

Quite true, but the point that the SNP may do very well in 2015 seems to indicate that its Labour who will suffer in Scotland thereby limiting their seats in Westminster.

 

Similarly, if UKIP do well, they will tend to damage the Tories more than Labour BUT, don't underestimate the damage they will do to Labour.

 

The Lib Dems are a dead parrot. Which, I suggest, is a shame because I believe they tried to act honorably in the coalition but have borne the brunt of voter anger.

 

I believe the Tories will scrape a victory, by about 15/20 seats.

 

Worst scenario? Tory/UKIP coalition. The nutters will take over.

 

Im a Tory

Couple of things Alan.

This mornings news says Labour are in meltdown in Scotland bearing out what you said in your first sentence.

UKIP can damage Labour as well as the Tories (a lot I hope!).

LibDems - I agree - their own fault for not sticking to their principles (and promises).

Tory/UKIP coalition? Why not? Substantially better than a Labour coalition with anybody!

---------- Post added 26-10-2014 at 09:47 ----------

Please ask the Tories and Labour about (a) TTIP which they support, and (b) splitting off some of Southern England to have a union with France, with their own flag? Which they also support!

Five million people now on low pay http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29771470

You posted this in the Conservative party thread why??

You posted this in the Conservative party thread why??

Well Alan - they ARE the current government and they are the only ones who can do something about it.

You posted this in the Conservative party thread why??

Because they're the ones telling us how great the economy is doing ??

Sadly, it seems that the EU were the only ones paying attention ??