Turko-Russian powder-keg

Am genuinely mystified Loob. What are you going on about? I think theres some confusion.

Your earlier contention was that "If the baltic countries left it wouldnt be a big deal". My answer was that it would be a big deal, because NATO is mostly about protecting Europe from Russian aggression, the main NATO members (US excepted) are founding members of the EU, and the Baltic states are full-bird EU member states, not 'accession states' any more.

If the Baltic states left, whether voluntarily (can't ever see it, for the same reasons JFK mentioned subsequently) or pushed, it would have tremendous consequences for the EU. Far more so than e.g. GB Brexiting (because even after a Brexit, GB would still be part of NATO and put its oar in about defending Europe - just like long before it was an EU member states - whereas the Baltic states would be all on their own through and through).

You next clarified that "we are talking about a theroretical situation", which I accept, and the premise on which I joined in and then you asked "what would be the significance if they decided to leave Nato?"

Your contention was that "It wouldnt mean Nato fell apart", which I accept again - conditionally: what I left unsaid (my bad) was that it's the EU that would start to fall apart (same effect a Brexit could have). Maybe that would in turn bring NATO down with it, in full or part - or maybe not. I'd wager that territorial defence in the face of potential Russian aggression is still considered more important than socio-economic integration, so am inclined to think NATO would still survive in one form or another. There was a NATO long before the EU even got half as integrated and monolithic as it is nowadays.

What I didn't get at all, but chose to reply about, is your comment that "EU member states who are not part of the NATO include Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta and Sweden".

Austria and Malta are too small to matter much, militarily.

The UK has airbases Akrotiri and Dhekelia on Cyprus with full UK jurisdiction thereon (so Cyprus is effectively NATO'd in part).

Ireland has been a de facto member of NATO for donkeys' years through the logistical platform which it continually provides to the US at Shannon. Just about every Europe- and ME-bound US serviceman transits through there, and has been for decades.

Finland and Sweden partook in this summer's NATO large-scale exercises in the Baltic for the first time ever, and on an unprecedented scale: though they're not NATO, the message to Putin was clear as a sunny winter's day in the Arctic circle: we'll have at you right by NATO's side just the same. Putin would do well to remember what taste the Finns left in Joe Stalin's mouth as well: that was a very bloody and costly adventure that didn't end well for the Red Army.

The Baltic states won't ever leave NATO voluntarily. If they get pushed out, you can expect the EU to come apart at the wheels faster than you can say "Article 50 TFEU" alongside a north-south axis east of Berlin - to begin with. It's already halfway there in the Balkans after this summer's shenanigans.

Hope that clarifies things and apologies for anything I've left out and for any confusion I may have caused, entirely unintentional. I'm interested in this debate, but under a bit of professional pressure atm and only following the debate on-off as infrequent breaks allow.

Loob it wasnt really a debate as such, more a discussion and with JFK hes always reasonable. Thanks for taking the time to respond as I couldnt gather where you were going.

It really stemmed from something JFK started. @ post 324 and 327.

Nato's expansion east into territory that was considered to be under Russia's sphere of influence has really annoyed and maybe threatened Putin. His reply may be to put NATO under as much political pressure as possible with the aim of rolling back NATO from Eastern Europe.

It all depends upon what the end game is for either party. I've got a sneaky hunch that Puntin is looking to drive a wedge between NATO members with the ultimate goal of splintering NATO.

One way to do this may be to force one NATO country to act in a way that some of the other NATO countries might not agree with or even support. I wouldn't be surprised if the Batlic NATO countries were the next countries to feel the heat, and provoked into action.

I think my point was that if the Baltic states decided to leave, then Nato would survive just fine without them. Nato functioned fine before they joined. Contrast that with if someone like the US, UK or Germany left.

I think the point you were jumping in at which caused your alarm is what would be the reason they left? If the reason they left was due to Russian aggression then that would be a massive deal and I do not think Nato would cave in at all. It would send all the wrong messages.

So we are then left with the scenario that for some reason they unilaterally decide to leave of their own volition and without Russian aggression. I still think wed be fine and nato would survive, but its such a highly unlikely scenario its hard to take it seriously.The Baltic states are commited to having the protection of Nato.

What I was pointing out is that even in the scenario they left then there are other countries who are within the EY, but not officially in Nato.

So:

1.The Baltic states wont leave Nato voluntarily.

2. That means Nato wouldnt permit Russian aggression be the cause.

3. If they did leave, then do I think the EU would unravel? No, because there are functioning members of the EU who are not in Nato.

4. The theoretical reason they left would make all the difference, some are much more damagingt han others, but in the same vein I just dont see them happening.

Hope that clarifies. The point iof interest was really post #327 and JFKs idea that Putin would be able to generate enough dissension in Nato that it would force certain members to leave. I cant see him doing that and certainly not in Syria because I dont think its just a sideshow and nato would pre empt any tensions that Russia attempted to generate.

Well, we might get to see the extent of that preempting soon: as of today, Russia has just closed ties with the YPG (Kurds) and put whites on SU34s' rails. The S400 SAM was turned on yesterday or the day before.

Erdogan is basically checked (I won't go so far as to call it a mate yet) out of northern Syria. After losing 4m annual tourists. That's going to be quite a geopolitical bill for the 'point' he tried to make with that AIM9 a/a missile.

"Interesting times" (within the meaning of the ancient Chinese curse) for the US, Israel, France and the UK, for sure.

Some more oil poured onto the fire by Putin this morning.

There are also emerging reports that Erdogan's son is in this IS oil business up to his neck, and that Erdogan's daughter is involved with the (long-rumoured) secret Turkish military hospitals treating IS casualties. That link/source is not unique, tons on Liveleak about this since late yesterday, makes me think the FSB is deliberately releasing damaging intel or intox. May well all be tinfoil hat stuff, until more and better evidence emerges. But if true, it would certainly go some way towards explaining Turkey's game (which is increasingly looking like the Pakistani ISI's double-dealing with AQ/Bin Laden back in the day).

Well, we might get to see the extent of that preempting soon: as of today, Russia has just closed ties with the YPG (Kurds) and put whites on SU34s' rails. The S400 SAM was turned on yesterday or the day before.

 

Erdogan is basically checked (I won't go so far as to call it a mate yet) out of northern Syria. After losing 4m annual tourists. That's going to be quite a geopolitical bill for the 'point' he tried to make with that AIM9 a/a missile.

 

"Interesting times" (within the meaning of the ancient Chinese curse) for the US, Israel, France and the UK, for sure.

 

Some more oil poured onto the fire by Putin this morning.

 

There are also emerging reports that Erdogan's son is in this IS oil business up to his neck, and that Erdogan's daughter is involved with the (long-rumoured) secret Turkish military hospitals treating IS casualties. That link/source is not unique, tons on Liveleak about this since late yesterday, makes me think the FSB is deliberately releasing damaging intel or intox. May well all be tinfoil hat stuff, until more and better evidence emerges. But if true, it would certainly go some way towards explaining Turkey's game (which is increasingly looking like the Pakistani ISI's double-dealing with AQ/Bin Laden back in the day).

There similar reports last week either Thursday or Friday on RT but with it being on RT I did not take too much notice of it as it was linking him to the Turkman rebels as well, but the first casualty of any war is always the truth

Erdogans son and daughter are involved with Isis, like I said before Turkey supports terrorists = http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/11/30/vt-was-right-bilal-and-sumeyye-erdogan-son-and-daughter-of-president-erdogan-are-isis-gangs/

Erdogans son and daughter are involved with Isis, like I said before Turkey supports terrorists = http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/11/30/vt-was-right-bilal-and-sumeyye-erdogan-son-and-daughter-of-president-erdogan-are-isis-gangs/

I can't understand why. Isis would take swathes of turkey given half a chance and are doing their best to wipe out Turkmen in Syria (which we're led to believe is one of the reasons why they shot down a Russian plane).

I can't understand why. Isis would take swathes of turkey given half a chance and are doing their best to wipe out Turkmen in Syria (which we're led to believe is one of the reasons why they shot down a Russian plane).

Tinfoil its worth reading the article to look at their evidence and then do some research on the newsite.

I can't understand why.

How fast is visa-free entry into the EU and €bns in EU aid now being offered on a plate no questions asked, hand in hand with fast-track EU accession, in "payment" (bakshish in local parlance, I believe ) to stem the flow of refugees?

Connect the dots. And don't forget to follow the money, either.

The EU and the 'West' are being played. Without even the decency of a bit of lube.

Tinfoil its worth reading the article to look at their evidence and then do some research on the newsite.

Turkey is double dealing, is a guardian news site more believable for you= http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/turkey-duped-the-us-and-isis-reaps-rewards-10478720.html

How long has Turkey tried to gain EU membership?

 

How fast is visa-free entry into the EU and €bns in EU aid now being offered on a plate no questions asked, hand in hand with fast-track EU accession, in "payment" (bakshish in local parlance, I believe ) to stem the flow of refugees?

 

Connect the dots. And don't forget to follow the money, either.

 

The EU and the 'West' are being played. Without even the decency of a bit of lube.

But they are also playing Turkey by keeping migrants there. thats 2.1m refugees that could easily be crossing over. The alternative is if you dont wnat them as an ally you get them as an enemy. The plane incident is short term.

---------- Post added 01-12-2015 at 21:35 ----------

Turkey is double dealing, is a guardian news site more believable for you= http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/turkey-duped-the-us-and-isis-reaps-rewards-10478720.html

Yes I prefer it to a website which supports 9/11 as a conspiracy.

Your argument was about oil and allegations.

This one is about the PKK. Time will tell if its true and they really have duped the Americans in certain regards, but they were desperate to use Incerlik. As ive said before I'd like it if the Kurds managed to get an independent homeland, but its unlikely to happen because there will be further war from the countries who they are currently part of.

You point out that most of the attacks are against the Kurds, but thats not much different than the Russians putting in eve greater attacks against the non isis anti Assad opposition forces that the US supports.

Why would you care Mafya you obviously dont like anyone else except Assad and Russia.

But they are also playing Turkey by keeping migrants there. thats 2.1m refugees that could easily be crossing over. The alternative is if you dont wnat them as an ally you get them as an enemy. The plane incident is short term.

The plane incident is a bit of Realpolitik, possibly intended by Erdogan to 'test' his NATO allies. But Erdogan should have remembered that, love him or loathe him, Putin has been giving masterclasses in Realpolitik for a long time now, and outplayed every comer so far. Methinks that's gonna cost Erdogan far more than he thought.

Opening bit of your post doesn't compute with me I'm afraid: indeed those 2.1m are Erdogan's leverage over the EU, not the other way around. So we're deffo not playing Turkey here, we've given in to Erdogan's blackmail more like.

Its 2 sides of the same coin. Its the same with Africa. If the EU chooses to pay nothing then the natural flow of things is that economic migrants and refugess will move and the people on the borders will have no reason to stop them. £2.2 billion £s is peanuts for the EU compared with the associated costs of them arriving.

Its a negotiated settlement.