There's one important factor which has not been mentioned much in this debate, and that is whatever improvements have been carried to a property since the last 'official' valuation (i.e. the last sale amount on houseprices.co.uk etc.).
Of course, there will be improvements (lick of paint, new kitchen) and improvements (loft bedroom, conservatory, extension) but, essentially, in a falling market it's a bit like depreciating cars: the more options, the better it retains its value compared to same models without the options.
And that is pretty much impossible to tell from LR/Nationwide/Halifax/etc. figures alone.
With such a reduced level of activity in the market as at present, I believe that it may well be an overlooked but quite important effect.
Good point and I hadn't thought of that. In a normal market the better houses sell for more and the not as good houses sell for less, but in this market the not so good houses aren't selling unless they are at a big discount. I'm still not buying (no pun intended) that we are back to 2007 price levels though - every bull on here reports that their area is back to this level so to that must mean there are areas that have seen 30-35% falls to even it out. I know there is going to be some disparity between areas but that would be extreme. I think it's a case of some roads in some areas sell better than others and as you say it depends on the property as well.
Looks like you were right about the market not crashing again until at least mid November though. The September figures for Halifax and Nationwide both show rises so we will see what the October figures show when they come out.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
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Latest LR figures show a national rise of 0.9% and a Sheffield rise of 0.6% http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/. The figures are for sales completed in September and so are for sales agreed (mostly) around late May/early June.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
There's one important factor which has not been mentioned much in this debate, and that is whatever improvements have been carried to a property since the last 'official' valuation (i.e. the last sale amount on houseprices.co.uk etc.).
Of course, there will be improvements (lick of paint, new kitchen) and improvements (loft bedroom, conservatory, extension) but, essentially, in a falling market it's a bit like depreciating cars: the more options, the better it retains its value compared to same models without the options.
And that is pretty much impossible to tell from LR/Nationwide/Halifax/etc. figures alone.
With such a reduced level of activity in the market as at present, I believe that it may well be an overlooked but quite important effect.
I think that I must be on a different planet to everyone else.
As I have mentioned so many times, but everyone seems to have ignored.
Many houses are selling above the valuation. One went last week for 10 k above the asking price. I am not making this up. This is reality. If you choose to ignore it then do so.
There is no reduced activity. There are not enough houses on the market and when they do come on they get snapped up as long as there isn't any thing too terrible about them, like they are built next to an electricity station, or are on a very very busy Rd .It has now turned from a buyers market in to a sellers market in the last few weeks.There are many buyers out there with cash. They sold out last year before the bottom fell out of the market, banked the money and are now frantically trying to buy as prices are now rising. The thing to remember is. Never buy a house that you wont be able to sell in the future and try to buy smaller in the best area if you can and you will always be able to sell it.
espadrille, the level of activity depends to a large extent on the price bracket (type of property) and the location. Don't think that dynamics in one postcode hold true regionally or nationally, the LR figures speak for themselves.
£100k and thereabouts houses have been moving a lot this summer (though still less so than pre-08 ). Less so beyond £140k and definitely not so beyond £175 (stamp duty threshold).
That's been my view consistently, if you care to go back through my posts
(and I'm not particularly interested in talking the market down, since we've now bought/sale agreed again. £10k below asking, btw - and the asking was already quite competitive relative to similar/identical properties FS on the same estate, because the sellers wanted a quick sale).
espadrille, the level of activity depends to a large extent on the price bracket (type of property) and the location. Don't think that dynamics in one postcode hold true regionally or nationally, the LR figures speak for themselves.
£100k and thereabouts houses have been moving a lot this summer (though still less so than pre-08 ). Less so beyond £140k and definitely not so beyond £175 (stamp duty threshold).
That's been my view consistently, if you care to go back through my posts
(and I'm not particularly interested in talking the market down, since we've now bought/sale agreed again. £10k below asking, btw - and the asking was already quite competitive relative to similar/identical properties FS on the same estate, because the sellers wanted a quick sale).
Of course the houses over 200k take a bit longer to sell as not as many people have the kind of borrowing requirement as at the lower end.
We called at a house last Friday on the market with Blundells to get a brochure. That was on at about 220k. It has now gone. In less than 2 weeks.
Of course these areas are always going to attract buyers as they have the facilities every one wants. But if the price is right a house will sell.
The other factor to take in to account which will change on 1/1/10 is that houses around the 180k price bracket are affected by stamp duty as purchasers will always want to avoid this. Also houses over 250k have the same issue as no one at all wants to pay 3% of dead money do they?
I think that I must be on a different planet to everyone else.
As I have mentioned so many times, but everyone seems to have ignored.
Many houses are selling above the valuation. One went last week for 10 k above the asking price. I am not making this up. This is reality. If you choose to ignore it then do so.
Your posts on these threads have been along the lines of, 'property is flying off the shelf and at way above asking price' for a number of months now. However the figures don't back this up. I am not accusing you of lying and I certainly don't think you are but I think that your personal experience is generally out of kilter what is happening throughout Sheffield. Prices have been rising recently and I haven't argued otherwise, but they have not taken off by any means - the last 2 LR figures for Sheffield showed -0.8% (revised to -0.4% in this months figures and +0.6% so rising yes, soaring like an eagle, no.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
My crystal ball says mid-November at the earliest (assuming the next BoE meeting raises the base interest rate), but more likely as and when the public sector cuts start in anger.
Well, Nationwide released their October figures today and......a rise of 0.4%. Halifax's figures should be out in the next week or so, so we will see what they have to show.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
Since moving into West One (a place that people on here would have you believe cannot be given away) and have kept an eye on other properties. They include:
2 Bed at Peak - £190,000 = Sold within 2 weeks
2 Bed at Peak - £145,000 = Sold within 3 weeks
2 Bed at Plaza 1 - £125,000 = Sold within 1 week
The only properties in the complex that have been available for sale for any longer than 2 months are tiny 1 bed's that are ridiculously overpriced.
This is wrong. Up north the houses are still low and are not rising. Many people think they are but this is incorrect. It is being caused by the lack of properties under 100K coming onto the market causing competition between buyers.
Its always on GMTV about nationwide etc etc but its aload of jargon, they just get it into peoples head their house is worth more when in fact is it not.
How can it be with the financial state of this country?
This is wrong. Up north the houses are still low and are not rising. Many people think they are but this is incorrect. It is being caused by the lack of properties under 100K coming onto the market causing competition between buyers.
Its always on GMTV about nationwide etc etc but its aload of jargon, they just get it into peoples head their house is worth more when in fact is it not.
How can it be with the financial state of this country?
If they are not rising where have the various bodies got their figures from or have they just made them up?
This is wrong. Up north the houses are still low and are not rising. Many people think they are but this is incorrect. It is being caused by the lack of properties under 100K coming onto the market causing competition between buyers.
Its always on GMTV about nationwide etc etc but its aload of jargon, they just get it into peoples head their house is worth more when in fact is it not.
How can it be with the financial state of this country?
But IMO, it was the media that helped in bringing on the recession, so they can also help to bring us out. People believe what they read.
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Jumping From The Frying Pan In To The Fire Since Dec 2008
But IMO, it was the media that helped in bringing on the recession, so they can also help to bring us out.
The media didn't get us into the recession and they won't get us out. The problems we are currently facing were predicted by many (have a search on the net) years before they happened and there was nothing in the mainstream media until the problems were happening. By and large they report on issues as they happen and spin them whichever way suits them/their paper the best.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonjon
People believe what they read.
True but nothing the media prints is going to get the UK out of it's financial problems. The debt is already here and tax rises and public spending cuts are on there way, no matter who wins the next election and no matter what is printed in newspapers.
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Although history doesn't repeat itself, it always rhymes
This is wrong. Up north the houses are still low and are not rising. Many people think they are but this is incorrect. It is being caused by the lack of properties under 100K coming onto the market causing competition between buyers.
Its always on GMTV about nationwide etc etc but its aload of jargon, they just get it into peoples head their house is worth more when in fact is it not.
How can it be with the financial state of this country?
That's self contradictory. If they are being bid up due to restricted supply and are thus rising, then they are rising.
The fact that it is on low volumes and may not be sustainable doesn't mean that it's not true in the short term.
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Everyone's listening, and wishing you'd just shut up.
What do people think about the soon-to-be-amended stamp duty change in 2010?
From my limited (and possibly incorrect) understanding the 1% rate will fall from £175k to £125k in 2010 (not sure if thats from Jan 10 or the new tax year).
Surely this would depress activity for houses in the £125k to £175k bracket after the change over, but in the meantime should be encouraging activity?
What do people think about the soon-to-be-amended stamp duty change in 2010?
From my limited (and possibly incorrect) understanding the 1% rate will fall from £175k to £125k in 2010 (not sure if thats from Jan 10 or the new tax year).
Surely this would depress activity for houses in the £125k to £175k bracket after the change over, but in the meantime should be encouraging activity?
I await to be shot down......
That all depends as to whether they have budgeted for paying the extra 1% stamp duty. If they know about it and have taken in to account then it wont stop people, but may make it more difficult. If you really want to buy a house then as long as they meet the lending criteria then it shouldnt matter.The people who will be affected by this are those who are already stretching themselves as far as they can with the lending and stamp duty cannot be borrowed.Hence the mad rush to buy a property before this comes in to force on the 1st Jan 2010
