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The Consequences of Brexit [part 4]

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With or without Brexit European cities on the continent are constantly competing for business. The fact is London isn't just Europe's #1 financial centre, it's the world's #1 financial centre. There are more people employed in our financial services than the entire population of Frankfurt!

 

Many of London's "pull" factors are completely unaffected by Brexit such as being at the heart of GMT giving it a timezone advantage and the fact that it's an English-speaking city.

 

Bankers at the top of their game will have become accustomed to London's cosmopolitan lifestyle of rubbing shoulders with politicians, business moguls, and celebrities alike.

 

None of this changes post-Brexit.

 

 

 

Put it this way, it's window dressing.

 

Brexit isn't the 'prize' but simply the means to an end. Without an act of war the European Union (Germany) cannot stop Britain leapfrogging the continent and repositioning herself to become an Atlantic power with the help of the United States.

 

There's a much broader geopolitical agenda that goes beyond Brexit. There's deep resentment for the way Merkel has hijacked the union to advance Germany's agenda.

 

Germany might have the EU wrapped around its little finger however it cannot deliver security for the continent like Britain can and we've been reminding them of this. It wasn't an accident that security was put on the table in TM's A50 letter. The message to Berlin..do not take Britain's role for granted. This is very much the message from Washington too.

 

If Putin had devised a plan to divide the EU that would be it.

 

But we know you're just making stuff up now.....

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I suppose the analogy, complete with talks of "divorce" settlement, is apt...

It did occur to me that if we were to run with the divorce analogy, then perhaps we should have a trial separation before the divorce, and see how it goes...

No idea how that should work though. :?

 

If Putin had devised a plan to divide the EU that would be it.

I'm sure it is just coincidence that the biggest Brexit facebook groups are all fronted by a chap based in Moscow. Putin would've been more subtle...

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Brexit negotiations start again today (17/07/17) The issue of rights for both EU citizens living here and UK citizens living in the EU are going to be discussed. There are about two million more EU citizens living here than UK citizens living in the EU. I don't think it would be unreasonable, given the huge imbalance of the numbers for the UK to request that up to two million UK citizens be allowed to move to the EU after Brexit. Then any UK citizen unhappy about the UK leaving the EU can do the honourable deed and move to the EU rather than causing trouble and moaning about the democratic decision here.

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Brexit negotiations start again today (17/07/17)

 

Indeed, and look, here's another thing the government hasn't thought through:-

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/uk-sleepwalking-into-food-insecurity-after-brexit-academics-say

 

The issue of rights for both EU citizens living here and UK citizens living in the EU are going to be discussed. There are about two million more EU citizens living here than UK citizens living in the EU. I don't think it would be unreasonable, given the huge imbalance of the numbers for the UK to request that up to two million UK citizens be allowed to move to the EU after Brexit. Then any UK citizen unhappy about the UK leaving the EU can do the honourable deed and move to the EU rather than causing trouble and moaning about the democratic decision here.

 

Except, EU nationals living here tend to be young, working, paying tax and not a drain on the NHS, whereas the UK citizens are largely old ex-pats who're using the local health services at a cheaper cost than in the UK. If they all moved back, that £350m isn't going to go far. :D

 

A lot of those same ex-pats were denied a "democratic" vote on the issue.

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With or without Brexit European cities on the continent are constantly competing for business.
That they are.

 

The difference being that, with Brexit, the UK voted to rid itself of its competitive advantages within the EU: statutorily-unrestricted access to the SM (to say nothing of the extra advantages conferred by all of its currency, financial and fiscal opt-outs).

 

I didn't think it needed explaining to you but, well, reflecting on this and the previous (pt 3) threads...there's a lot of EU topics you either don't seem to comprehend, or just conveniently wave away with insular rethoric and platitudes.

Many of London's "pull" factors are completely unaffected by Brexit such as being at the heart of GMT giving it a timezone advantage and the fact that it's an English-speaking city.
GMT and the English language are very far down the list of London's "pull" factors.

 

Ease of access to 'alternative' financial resources and networks (particularly remaining havens), dense and fully integrated network of support services (particularly legal), financial ICT experts & service providers, centennial stable judicial system, <...> all easily trump these simplistic factors...

 

...but these are all services, and movable to follow the market (bankers) wherever it ends up (to say nothing of the established competition at destination). Services which are not covered by WTO terms, and the capacity to sell such into the EU post-Brexit being fully subordinated to the EU's terms.

 

Which is how and why so many British service providers with healthy levels of business in the EU (e.g. such as ourselves, and I1L2T3's clients as I understand from his posts) are already at very advanced stages of contingency planning and implementation: it doesn't matter how much window-dressing May, Davis, Fox <etc.> do, it doesn't matter whether Emperor Palpatine is really behind Brexit and pulling the puppet strings...it's too late.

 

We don't know what the deal will be, nor whether there will be one. And adapting one's business to the circumstances of an eventual deal can't be left to the last second, particularly when (EU) competitors are busy trying to steal our business on the back of Brexit already. Business does not stand still, and the world outside the UK does not wait, poised on British and EU politicians' output. The notional cliff edge is in 18 months' time, and that will be upon the UK and all who sail in her before you know it. So we're making and implementing our "own deal" on the basis of those variables which we know and understand. Right now. That's how and why it's too late. If "the deal" ends up bigly great for the UK, bonus. If it doesn't, we're already adapted enough to survive.

 

It's no different for Euro-clearing financiers in the City whatsoever (then more of their brethren in due course).

 

It's no different for tech, legal, IT <...> service suppliers to the EMA.

 

It's no different for tech, legal, IT <...> service suppliers to the UPC.

 

<etc, etc.> and the biggest problem in all this is not even so much the loss of jobs (both actual and through creation in the EU rather than here), economical output and tax take: it's the loss of experience and expertise, which gradually compounds the loss of British competitiveness over time.

Bankers at the top of their game will have become accustomed to London's cosmopolitan lifestyle of rubbing shoulders with politicians, business moguls, and celebrities alike.
On the earlier language comment and the cosmopolitan comment: when was the last time you visited another European capital? Dublin? Luxembourg? Paris? Barcelona? <...>

 

Do politicians, business moguls and celebrities only inhabit London or something?

 

Still more insular thinking, by the looks.

Edited by L00b

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Indeed, and look, here's another thing the government hasn't thought through:-

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/uk-sleepwalking-into-food-insecurity-after-brexit-academics-say

 

 

Except, EU nationals living here tend to be young, working, paying tax and not a drain on the NHS, whereas the UK citizens are largely old ex-pats who're using the local health services at a cheaper cost than in the UK. If they all moved back, that £350m isn't going to go far. :D

 

A lot of those same ex-pats were denied a "democratic" vote on the issue.

 

So now we are going to be under food siege, best get the gardening tools oiled up,and watch out for the dead pigs flying across the Channel.

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It did occur to me that if we were to run with the divorce analogy, then perhaps we should have a trial separation before the divorce, and see how it goes.
I suppose that the EFTA and EEA provide alternative options that could correspond to the 'trial separation' analogy, but-

 

(i) both options are still out of bounds so long as May remains fixated on escaping the jurisdiction of the ECJ anyway;

 

(ii) the EFTA 4 would be most unlikely to green-light the UK getting into it, for socio-political reasons; and

 

(iii) if by trial separation you mean 'from the EU', then that means getting out for the purpose and, if the UK wanted back in (-to the EU) after that trial separation, the only constitutional way to do that is apply afresh through Article 49. Which means no rebate, no opt-outs, no nothing: start from scratch...and these days, 'into the EU' requires commitment (at term) into Schengen and the €.

 

Looking forward to see Davis dropping the proverbial kegs once more today :D

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So now we are going to be under food siege, best get the gardening tools oiled up,and watch out for the dead pigs flying across the Channel.

 

 

Well,let's just have a look at one part of this,migrant workers.Brexiteers have told us they don't want cheap migrant labour in the UK,and after Brexit,this makes it possible to stop it,so seeing as the UK relies heavily on cheap migrant labour in farming and food processing,what's the plan to replace cheap migrant labour with Brits to do those jobs?

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What's the plan to replace cheap migrant labour with Brits to do those jobs?

 

Especially with "unemployment at a record low"...

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Majority of Brexiters would swap free movement for EU market access

Leave voters would be evenly split if the government tried to keep full access to the single market in exchange for allowing a version of free movement that limited welfare benefits for new arrivals. Across the country as a whole, twice as many voters would be satisfied with this option than not, even though it goes no further than the deal struck by David Cameron before the referendum.

 

But support for a trade-off soars when voters are offered the option of other limitations on free movement that are used by some countries in the single market. Asked to consider a system where EU migrants were sent home if they did not find work, 55% of leave voters said they would be satisfied with this, versus only 25% who would be unhappy.

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Well,let's just have a look at one part of this,migrant workers.Brexiteers have told us they don't want cheap migrant labour in the UK,and after Brexit,this makes it possible to stop it,so seeing as the UK relies heavily on cheap migrant labour in farming and food processing,what's the plan to replace cheap migrant labour with Brits to do those jobs?

 

Yes with a living wage.

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