View Full Version : Student population to shrink dramatically in the future


goldenfleece
20-02-2006, 07:56
From this autumn, students will pay 'top-up' tuition fees of £3,000-a-year, compared to the current £1,175 rate. This is set to have a dramatic effect on student numbers over the coming years, once applications fall below the number of available places. Sheffield's applications are down by about five per cent, which while not falling below the number of available places, is set to cause a worrying downward spiral. Other Universities have seen applications fall by far higher rates and actually drop below the number of available places, so overall, over the next few years, University places will be cropped back to reflect the change in demand for higher education in the UK.

And of course, the political implications go much further than that, with costs likely to spiral upwards even more in the years to come. Whatever the Government says at the moment, you can bet your left ear students will be hit with even more costs in the forthcoming years.

University entrants from 2006 will mostly face debts at graduation in the range £20,000 to £30,000 (Barclays Bank projects the average debt at £33,000 in 2010), and a tax rate of 42%(income tax 22%, national insurance 11%, student debt repayment 9%), with pressure to save for their pensions. The Institute for Fiscal Studies projects that on average they will take 19 years to pay off their debts. There will not be enough well-paid graduate jobs for all of them. They will join the IPOD generation (Insecure,Pressured,Overtaxed,Debt-ridden).

Any thoughts on the future of University Education? The other growing problem is also the once great prowess and status of receiving a University Education has been completely eroded to nothing. 30 years ago, obtaining a degree from ANY University was a social achievement in any community, and afforded graduates a distinctly raised profile. These days, a graduate is simply yet another graduate. Gone also are the days when being a student was "the best 3 years of my life", non stop partying, etc, as it was all at the taxpayers expense. Now, its money worries and more debt, and every party must be budgeted. That framed degree certificate that once stood proud on the parental mantlepieces, now stands more chance of being stuck in the attic and forgotten about.

Although some people think University applications will only show a temporary fall, I believe the trend will continue until we have University applications and available places back at early 1980's levels, which something like 50% down from its current levels, a MASSIVE fall off. Perhaps in 10 years time, we wont be swamped with spare graduates any more, but actually have a DEMAND for them once again.

Cyclone
20-02-2006, 08:03
Don't some of those things seem a little contradictory. Numbers will fall drastically, but there won't be enough graduate jobs around?

And why are you predicting a 'spiral' of descent for Sheffields numbers based on a 5% fall this year?
I don't understand why falling student numbers will continue to increase prices, surely the opposite should apply?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the top up fees will be means tested as they were previously?
The average debt figures have never seemed quite right to me. When I left uni they were saying that the average debt was 15k, I didn't know anyone with a debt that high.

goldenfleece
20-02-2006, 08:12
And why are you predicting a 'spiral' of descent for Sheffields numbers based on a 5% fall this year? I don't understand why falling student numbers will continue to increase prices, surely the opposite should apply?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the top up fees will be means tested as they were previously?The average debt figures have never seemed quite right to me. When I left uni they were saying that the average debt was 15k, I didn't know anyone with a debt that high.

Universities are GREEDY, thats why, the market will become a cut throat industry with only the strongest surviving. Some will outprice themselves without a doubt, others MAY save themselves. However you look at it, its all bad news for future students. The fact is falling student numbers creates a knock on effect in popular cultural peer-group perception that education is no longer a serious option, as it will appear to lose its popularity and any "coolness" it once had. Education is simply a cultural phenomenon, once it loses its appeal, its days are numbered. Its easy to get a job in 2006 without a degree, compared to 25 years ago certainly, unless you want to be a Doctor or lawyer or biochemist, etc, you dont need a degree to make your way in life. The number of jobs seeking "graduates only" has fallen off on a massive scale.

Means testing is a false economy, as the thresholds can be altered by the Government at any time, and therefore have no real fixed value.

Cyclone
20-02-2006, 08:18
By greedy, I presume you mean that they will compete for students and the government money that comes with them.
This can only be a good thing for students, once demand falls below supply prices will be forced down or alternative means of attracting students will be increased.
Means testing seems perfectly valid to me. Fixing the boundaries would be foolish as the limits clearly need to change over time to take into account changes in the economy, average wages, etc...

goldenfleece
20-02-2006, 08:25
By greedy, I presume you mean that they will compete for students and the government money that comes with them.
This can only be a good thing for students, once demand falls below supply prices will be forced down or alternative means of attracting students will be increased.
Means testing seems perfectly valid to me. Fixing the boundaries would be foolish as the limits clearly need to change over time to take into account changes in the economy, average wages, etc...

Yes compete for students of course, like any night club competing for customers, BUT, lowering prices can have an ADVERSE effect. if you make yourself TOO cheap, it reduces the overall perception of any real value of the experience. AND in this case, if demand falls below supply it will be an easier option for any University to shrink itself according to the market forces. These places are huge rambling organizations that would benefit from a total restructure in most cases. If Universities were truly corporate business concerns like they are in the States, you have to restructure based on demand, you cant pull or create demand for a market that is intrinsically shrinking, at least not if there is a National trend on the downward side.

Higher Education is no longer on a pedestal of pride Nationally as it was in the 80's and before, it is now far too big in a country the size of the UK to be a realistic economic or socio-cultural benefit to the changing perceptions of modern Society.

This is an interesting academic analysis of related issues....

LINK (http://www.hepi.ac.uk/pubdetail.asp?ID=137&DOC=Lectures)

Tony
20-02-2006, 09:00
Interviewer: So tell me, what qualifies you for this position?

Interviewee: Well I've got a degree! *big smile*

Interviewer: You misunderstood, what qualifies you to do the job?

Interviewee: *looks puzzled* I just said, I have a degree... a first class one too! In Combined History and Economics! *nice grin*

Interviewer: So how do you feel that will help you in this sales position?

Interviewee: *remembers interview module at uni* Well, I have a well rounded high quality education in traditional subjects, and I'm sure I will be an asset to the business as I learn about the finer points of the job

Interviewer: Oh... so you want us to train you?

Interviewee: Well obviously that's what I would expect. Then I can become a valued member of the firm.

Interviewer: Do you appreciate that you will be on a lower salary whilst training?

Interviewee: Well I had hoped to be a in at the deep end straight away, but obviously I appreciate that for a short while I'll be getting up to speed.

Interviewer: OK, even though you have no direct sales experience we'll take a chance *looks at interviewee, fancying his chances* Come in at 4 AM tomorrow and we'll show you how to stack the shelves before we put you on the checkout.

Twiglet
20-02-2006, 09:53
Basing their assumptions on the Australian model, universities believe that we will experience a dip in applications this year (as we had a peak last year as those who would have chosen to defer did not), and then they should go back to normal. At the moment, I think our application rate is actually normal so far this year.

Tuition fees will not be reduced, it isn't a case of price and demand. I think all but around 6? (not sure of the exact number) universities this year are charging full whack, as they believe that charging anything else labels them as sub-standard.

wendygs
20-02-2006, 09:59
I think there are grounds for concern over the merit of having that once lauded University Degree and related certificate. I've just obtained free and for gratis someone's University of Sheffield certificate as a result of a house clearance. They left quite a lot of stuff behind and their beautifully framed certificate and graduation photograph. After all that hard work.

Cyclone
20-02-2006, 09:59
I don't think that universities will want to simply get smaller and have less students, rather than competing for the students there are.
The budget for each department depends on how many students they get, the amount of money they are given by the government is dependant on the students numbers as well. Apart from research (which requires some students from somewhere to be doing phd's) government money and the tuitition fee are the only source of income for a university, so they do everything they can to get as many students as possible.

Surely your comment about making them too cheap is inconsistent with the view that increasing tuition fees is a bad thing...

sheff_minx
20-02-2006, 10:05
The means testing system is already unfair. Other factors are not taken into account and for this reason friends of mine get £4000 loan, pay no fees, yet still get £50 a week from their dad - because their dad is a high earner yet because their parents are divorced and they live with their mum, his earnings are not taken into consideration...

Meanwhile I get less than £3000 loan, £1200 of which is tuition fees, and no handouts from my mum and dad, so I am therefore expected to live on £1500 a year... not possible when my annual rent is £2860!!! My work is now suffering because I have had to take on a job for 20hrs a week.:loopy: :rant: :rant:

Twiglet
20-02-2006, 10:40
The means testing system is already unfair. Other factors are not taken into account and for this reason friends of mine get £4000 loan, pay no fees, yet still get £50 a week from their dad - because their dad is a high earner yet because their parents are divorced and they live with their mum, his earnings are not taken into consideration...

Meanwhile I get less than £3000 loan, £1200 of which is tuition fees, and no handouts from my mum and dad, so I am therefore expected to live on £1500 a year... not possible when my annual rent is £2860!!! My work is now suffering because I have had to take on a job for 20hrs a week.:loopy: :rant: :rant:

This is the fundamental flaw of the system. Your fees and loan calculations are based on your parents income because they are supposed to pay your fees and contribute towards your living costs, so your loan is supposed to be paying for living costs only. The threshold at which parents have to pay however is far too low and does not take into consideration where they live and their own living costs etc.

Re. Cyclones point about making universities cheap. Students and academic staff opposed the introduction of top-up fees. However, because the government introduced them, the hand of the universities was forced to charge full whack a) as I said, so that they don't appear substandard, and b) because they need every penny they can get because government funding is being cut. Research showed that if they dropped the tuition fees below that maximum, applications would drop because of the opinion that the students might receive a sub-standard education, not increase because the course was cheaper. Students don't really think about the cost of the tuition fees too much because they don't have to pay them until after they leave.

max
20-02-2006, 10:43
Can someone explain about loans, please? I start a post grad course in September and the fees are £3,000. I'll be getting a grant of £1200 from the LEA towards living costs.

Can I take out a loan for the fees and, if so, is this means tested? Are there any other loans available which are not means tested?

willman
20-02-2006, 10:47
The means testing system is already unfair. Other factors are not taken into account and for this reason friends of mine get £4000 loan, pay no fees, yet still get £50 a week from their dad - because their dad is a high earner yet because their parents are divorced and they live with their mum, his earnings are not taken into consideration...

Meanwhile I get less than £3000 loan, £1200 of which is tuition fees, and no handouts from my mum and dad, so I am therefore expected to live on £1500 a year... not possible when my annual rent is £2860!!! My work is now suffering because I have had to take on a job for 20hrs a week.:loopy: :rant: :rant:


agree fully with that. my niece is at uni with a girl who is from a single parent home, her mum earns in excees of 30k per year.however as a single parent she is not expected to contribute to tuition fees. my sister(nieces mum) & hubby earn less than 30k joint and are expected to fund all tuition fees.
the stories are endless, ex forces with undeclared 100k in bank - declared self employed @ 10k per year so no fees to pay.

Cyclone
20-02-2006, 10:48
The means testing system is already unfair. Other factors are not taken into account and for this reason friends of mine get £4000 loan, pay no fees, yet still get £50 a week from their dad - because their dad is a high earner yet because their parents are divorced and they live with their mum, his earnings are not taken into consideration...

Meanwhile I get less than £3000 loan, £1200 of which is tuition fees, and no handouts from my mum and dad, so I am therefore expected to live on £1500 a year... not possible when my annual rent is £2860!!! My work is now suffering because I have had to take on a job for 20hrs a week.:loopy: :rant: :rant:

I don't disagree, it should all be reworked.

Twiglet
20-02-2006, 10:54
Can someone explain about loans, please? I start a post grad course in September and the fees are £3,000. I'll be getting a grant of £1200 from the LEA towards living costs.

Can I take out a loan for the fees and, if so, is this means tested? Are there any other loans available which are not means tested?

Hi Max, student loans are not available for post graduate courses. However you can do what I did and take out a Career Development Loan from a bank of up to £8000 to cover fees and living costs. However if you have been recently employed they won't cover all of the fees. The CDL is repayment free for the duration of your course, then is charged at 12.9%apr, so if you're good at juggling you can then take out another cheaper bank loan once you're employed and pay it off in one go with no penalties.

Lebeatch
20-02-2006, 10:55
Student numbers may well decline over the short-term. The reasons will most likely be financial. However, overall the student population has, I believe, increased over recent years and they no longer get a grant as they used to years gone by.

I also think the Government has artificially propped up the figures in recent years. They have actively encouraged as many young people as possible to go into Higher Education with little consideration as to whether that is the most asppropriate route for them. The opinion being that having undertaken Higher Education will make them more skilled, more employable and less likely to drain the state by living on benefits afterwards.

I don't know whether the move has had the desired effect, though the theory seems plausable.

The Government have acted to reduce the financial burden for our young people of the future by introducing the child trust fund. This gives a voucher worth £250 to be invested in a child trust fund account to which parents/grandparents can add to until the child is 18. The amount is then to be used to pay for Higher Education. As it's a fairly new initiative it will be around 15-16 years before we see whether this will have an impact or not.

goldenfleece
20-02-2006, 11:07
Student numbers may well decline over the short-term. The reasons will most likely be financial. However, overall the student population has, I believe, increased over recent years and they no longer get a grant as they used to years gone by.

The reasons will be BOTH finacial and CULTURAL, as the perceived value of a degree is considerably less today than it used to be in the 'halycon' days of University education. The student population has indeed increased every year to the present since 1985 in almost all Universities, but this is not related specifically to modern financial concerns, but the after-math of the student boom of the 80's and 90's.

We have TOO many graduates, its simple, nearly double the number coming out of University with totally useless degrees in Socliology and other non vocational stuff......therefore the decrease in student numbers ultimately wil have a good effect in years to come, as in less people coming out each year with degrees, and not 10,000+ graduates going on the dole each year or taking crappy supermarket check out jobs like the present.

I am all for a system that shrinks back the student numbers to the levels where a degree can be TRULY VALUED AND PRIZED. This will be at LEAST 50% down on todays numbers in higher education. Elitist perhaps, but that is NO BAD THING if the perception of higher education is once again raised to a suitable level, and not the run of the mill factory system it is today. There is no point in 50,000 graduates per year if only 20,000 graduate jobs, as those 30,000 who dont get a graduate job may as well have just gone straight into work at 16 or 18 instead of wasting their own money.

Lets be realistic.....the number of graduate vacancies per year needs to match the University output.....its a standard formula, you dont produce too much of what you need else you flood the market and totally devalue your product.

Kthebean
20-02-2006, 11:56
Sociology isn't a totally useless degree.

max
20-02-2006, 12:27
Twiglet, thanks for that information. The idea of an interest free loan, albeit only for a year, is quite attractive.

goldenfleece, I appreciate what you're saying about the number of graduates exceeding the number of graduate positions. However, I disagree with your contention that the be all and end all of obtaining a degree is in order to improve your saleability in a diminishing job market. Many people undertake degrees to satisfy their thirst for knowledge and others simply to put off the awful day when a decision has to be made as to where to earn a crust.

The most important reason for extending the availability of post school education is choice. More people now, than ever before, have the choice to continue their education after school. This can only be a good thing, in my opinion.

goldenfleece
20-02-2006, 13:02
goldenfleece, I appreciate what you're saying about the number of graduates exceeding the number of graduate positions. However, I disagree with your contention that the be all and end all of obtaining a degree is in order to improve your saleability in a diminishing job market. Many people undertake degrees to satisfy their thirst for knowledge and others simply to put off the awful day when a decision has to be made as to where to earn a crust.

The most important reason for extending the availability of post school education is choice. More people now, than ever before, have the choice to continue their education after school. This can only be a good thing, in my opinion.

I agree in fact. But, whilst a University education could be said to be good for most people in terms of broadening their social and academic experiences, the end result for most people doing degrees is to obtain a graduate job. I am discounting the many(?) students for example, just doing a degree to better their own education and for another reason, but a degree is largely a product which is a key to a (so called) better employment opportunity in the future and to get a higher income than those with no degree.

On another angle, its GREAT doing a degree just for the sheer experience and social opportunities, and I do know as I did one, but I saw it of little importance in employment opportunities for 2 reasons...
1) I did not want a job as did not need one, and
2) it was a history of art and film degree which is about as non-vocational as it gets, aside from the dreaded 'combined studies'.

I enjoyed myself as a student, and would not discount doing a degree again in the future just for the hell of it, not as a means to an end. However old you are, its an eye opening experience!!!


probably contradicted all my earlier points but I have multiple vision!!!

bassplayer
20-02-2006, 13:36
Degrees, degrees, degrees, is it really necessary to have a degree to earn a decent wage?
In this country maybe yes and I do not devalue anyone's efforts in obtaining them for they all work hard enough.
I read that in the US there are over 160,000 job vacancies/careers a year that do not require degrees and they are published every month as an alternative to further education. The highest salary was $106,000 ayear.
Why isn't something like this promoted and published in the UK to get more people into work as an alternative to further education.
Of course no-one would get paaid the higest amount to start with but if they would want to study later on in life, at least they would have some financial stability behind them.
The £3000/year fees are enough to dissuade anyone from pilingup huge debts before starting work and then having to pay them off, possibly getting married, mortgages, everyday bills on top of that...........!
But to those who do go to Uni' good luck and try to keep those bills down!!

AtticusFinch
20-02-2006, 14:01
Although I disagree with the whole concept of tuition fees, the biggest mistake the government made when introducing top-up fees was to not introduce variable fees. The claim was made that there would be a wide range of different fees across universities, so that the students could "shop around". The reality was that when all universities were told they could charge anything up to £3000 per year, most of them DID choose £3000.

What they should have done was to have enforced a pricing scheme based on the most recent research and teaching assessments. The universities with the highest scores from these assessments could charge the full £3000, then you'd have a sliding scale down to £1000 for those institutions with the lowest scores. Then each time a new set of research and teaching assessment were done, the fees could be reassessed and modified. That way, if a university was improving their teaching and/or research they'd be permitted to charge more for their courses. Likewise if they were becoming worse, they'd have to reduce their fees accordingly.

I don't agree with the view that many courses are pointless, however. I've never understood why so many people are scornful of media studies when the media has such power in our society, especially the tabloid media.

willman
20-02-2006, 14:07
whilst presenting yourself for a job position after attaining a degreee - the ability to study and gain experience is just as vital as the degree itself in a lot of cases.
the achievement,dedication & perseverance required are valuable character traits that should not be ignored when interviewers mention "what does your degree bring to our company?"

Tony
20-02-2006, 14:22
I'm not sure that's really universally true any more willman. I know from experience that many graduates lack even basic skills in some areas.

I remember that when I was studying (a few years ago now) that at the basic level anyone with the nous to be on the course on the first place just had to turn up and submit work to get through. There is very little that's special about many (most?) degrees that cannot be learned in a work environment, faster and more throughly.

That IME is why employers care less and less about degrees unless they are vocation specific.

willman
20-02-2006, 14:31
I'm not sure that's really universally true any more willman. I know from experience that many graduates lack even basic skills in some areas.

I remember that when I was studying (a few years ago now) that at the basic level anyone with the nous to be on the course on the first place just had to turn up and submit work to get through. There is very little that's special about many (most?) degrees that cannot be learned in a work environment, faster and more throughly.

That IME is why employers care less and less about degrees unless they are vocation specific.


i guess that is becoming more & more true.
i do find it pointless to have a "soft" degree in some subjetc or other & then try to use it obtain a job as chemist or similar & being disappointed when you don't get the job.
however in my case i have no use whatsoever for a BEd in Maths,but have always used it to promote myself.

Bago
20-02-2006, 17:12
however in my case i have no use whatsoever for a BEd in Maths,but have always used it to promote myself.

You're under-estimating yourself. If I was an employer of a financial institution or entity, I would want people who knows how to deal with numbers. With such a logical mind, you can apply for number crunching work like SAS reporting or even to become an actuary. Neither job I find can be done by someone without knowledge of statistics and logic.

What I find is that, employers do not employ the right people. This is not a fault as it is a reality. Not every person know what skills are required within every single job. Neither do the right candidate appears at the right time that you want to employ them. Byt the time that someone is completely confident within their job role, the job itself is obsolete !

As a graduate that was pushed through the system, I was and still am a little bit gutted that, my skills taught at university is not used and applied in reality. I also felt dumbed down when I entered the workplace, cos in reality, the company that I worked for did not have to pay an arm and leg for people like myself to do what I was doing. There was also a part-time mom with less qualification doing similar things to what I did. i.e. she was told to click on x, y, and z. If every employee are going to follow an instruction/manual written by other more qualified seniors employee, what is the point of getting a graduate ? The necessity is not there.

I sense that in the big scheme of things. Employment of British graduates will be more global, and British graduates may have to compete on an International level in the future within blue-chips. Oversea students will continue to bring revenue into British universities, as we have an old and traditional reputation of excellence. (It's kind of Britain's fault for conquering all those British Commonwealth's Countries and introducing the British educational system to them. i.e. O-levels -> A-levels -> Degree )

Some companies make it a selling point that they have educated employees of a certain calibre. These will continue to be selling this. The type of companies that do this will also probably 'groom' their graduates to behave in a certain manner, and accept certain company ethics/culture.