Have a read of this:

http://www.techcentralstation.com/120205A.html

and decide for your self if it's more reasonable than some of the postings from the peak oil crazy group on this forum!

NB: I mean they are "crazy" about the whole peak oil theory rather than actually crazy....I think!

Well said Barney---100,

All these people who keep predicting doom and gloom and immense problems on certain days or even certain years , have almost invariably been proved wrong.
As per usual the World will find its own solutions as it goes along. It's far too complicated an issue to talk about specific problems being solved by specific means at specific times .
I wonder how those people feel who go up mountains and so on , waiting for the World To End and then have to come down when it doesn't end ? I wonder if the Doom-sayers ever learn or is it a sort of psychological illness that compels them to go round saying , " Here it is . The End of the World as We Know It ." ?

Very interesting, still dont know what to believe really though.

Though 'obsessed' may be better than crazy! ;)

Tech Central Station is supported by sponsoring corporations that share our faith in technology and free markets. Smart application of technology - combined with pro free market, science-based public policy - has the ability to help us solve many of the world's problems, and so we are grateful to the American Beverage Association, AT&T, ExxonMobil, Freddie Mac, General Motors Corporation, McDonalds, Merck, Microsoft, Nasdaq, and PhRMA for their support. All of these corporations are industry leaders that have made great strides in using technology for our betterment, and we are proud to have them as sponsors

Its just another lobbying front for big corps.

Originally posted by wolfman
Tech Central Station is supported by sponsoring corporations that share our faith in technology and free markets. Smart application of technology - combined with pro free market, science-based public policy - has the ability to help us solve many of the world's problems, and so we are grateful to the American Beverage Association, AT&T, ExxonMobil, Freddie Mac, General Motors Corporation, McDonalds, Merck, Microsoft, Nasdaq, and PhRMA for their support. All of these corporations are industry leaders that have made great strides in using technology for our betterment, and we are proud to have them as sponsors

Its just another lobbying front for big corps.

Nice quote - next line

However, the opinions expressed on these pages are solely those of the writers and not necessarily of any corporation or other organization.

Anyway it's a lazy reply to attack the messenger rather than the message. Surely the output of "just another lobbying front for big corps" would be easy to pick apart?

Also thanks for biting so quickly on my peak oil bait!

LOL I do have a bit of a life, I even do question my own sanity somtimes :loopy: and why I give such a stuff.

Peak Oil is real, the only difficult thing is pinpointing the actual date. Even Professors and Geologists can only ever predict. One thing is true though they all now seem to think it will certainly take place before 2012, quite a few think we've hit it now. The true impact of Peak Oil takes about 2 years to show its devastating effects, so you'll only ever know who was correct when you can't switch on the lights, drive to work or even buy a loaf of bread at the suppermarket :help: .

All other Alternatives require Oil in some form or another. Baring intervention from Alien technology (about as likely as discovering those weapons of mass destruction in Iraq), the current imformation shows we have no real Alternative, just false hope. Even Scientists are giving up.

The truth of the matter is all Civilisation have collapsed because of a depletion of resources by overuse, this overuse is brought about by overpopulation, overpopulation is brought about by a current abundance of resources, then there's the big die off. We hit a dark age, before resouces build back and we over use them again. Unfortunately we'll never hit a great Civilisation like we have now, because Oil takes too long to form, so its more likely we'll be extinct before another great Oil Age.

We can make the transition at less painfull, by building lifeboats. By this I mean we should be learning to work the land manually, forget about economic growth, bring in some sort of Population reducing Policy, send out leaflets on how to turn our gardens into mini breadbaskets and a complete move to Localization, rather than Globalization.

If anyone can come up with an alternate resource to Oil, that doesn't require the use of Oil in anyway, then i'm willing to agree we can continue with econmic growth and Globalization, but until then I will continue my campaign until i've made an impact :clap: or its too late :help:

Just thought i'd add, "if" we find loads of new massive Oil Fields then its a case of were "screwd if we don't and we'e screwd if we do". Why, well just take a look at the World Weather lately:thumbsup:

Our whole eco system is dyeing, another side effect of Fossil Fuel overuse.

Brilliant, absolutely brilliant!

I post a link to a rational piece of writing on a subject mostly inhabited by zealots and I get a response that advocates humanity going back to the Stone Age!

As for scientists "giving up" on what exactly? New forms of energy production, more efficient versions of what we have?

Have a look at this and tell me that's the case: http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/007802.php

Vorsprung Durch Technik as some people say...

To be honest i'm not sure how all the Professors and Geologists involved in raising awareness of Peak Oil can be called "Zealots". But we are all allowed our own oppinions, thats the beauty of Democracy :clap:

Anyways your obviously one of those people I could never raise the awareness to. I accept there are quite alot of people who give there faith in the free market, expecting it to make some mirracle cures along the way.

There are always 2 sides to every subject, i've chosen my side, you've obviously chosen yours. One of us will be proved right, and believe me I really 100% hope its your side.

All I can say is take a look at both arguments of Peak Oil, I have and still do, but I've obviously made my choice. I am open to switching sides once I find the evidence needed. I just wander if you are willing to do the same.

As for "Scientists Giving Up", I don't mean they've retired and are just waiting for the end. What i've read is that lots of them feel they are running out of time to create an Alternative for Oil. One which doesn't require the use of Oil in anyway; like all current Alternatives do.

Has for a return to the Stone Age, its possible. Have you seen "Threads", what will happen if resource wars get way out of control? Also do you realise the use of Petroleum Based Fertilisers are destroying topsoil, to the point that most Agriculture Fields will soon be put out of commision. How will we eat then? 6.4 billion hungry mouths will create a lot of violence.

The whole Oil issue is deeper than just reaching the "Hubberts Peak", this is just the tip (pardon the pun).

The article you posted has no evidence, statistics or proof of anything. All it really said was, people have guessed incorrectly before and it's pretty complex.

It also made the false statement that peak oil is about oil running out, it's not.

The real problem is cost as the article said. We may find more oil, but it may cost too much.

Here are a few points along the same line as the article i.e just statements with no proof, take from them what you will.

1) Every big oil company (Exxon, BP etc) have run full page article in the NY Times asking people to conserve. One says "it took the World 75 years to use the first 3 trillion barrels of oil, it will take us less than 25 to use the next". Isn't that bad business sense? Why would an oil company ask people to conserve, it's like Starbucks saying please drink less of our coffee.

2) The US senate blocked China buying a American oil company recently. China has since started aggressively searching for oil as its demand will sky rocket as its people start wanting cars and the other things money buys. This (as the article recognises) is an unknown, how much will their consumption grow? How much will India’s? The two most populous nations on Earth. Imagine how much oil America and compare the populations. The point being competition for the recourses is increasing and people are doing more and more to secure their supply. Why, if there is now problem?

3) It's widely thought that Russia and Saudi Arabia are overstating their reserves.

4) If costs go up and stay up, the richer nations will still be fine. But what about the third world? Peak oil is not about oil running out. It's not about increasing the amount of production and refinery (as the article states, incorrectly), it's about markets. Even if we can supply demand by increasing production and refinery, the markets will still know it's coming to and end. People will increase their reserves and that will also push up prices. The futures market will explode. So we may have to tighten the purse strings a little, but in Africa and poorer nations, what will they do? As supplies dwindle everybody will do anything to secure what is left, and China has the greatest need. Do you think they will just give it up?

5) We have few other real options, in a time frame of 25 years. Fuel cells are far off in the future. The cars being tested at the moment cost over a million dollars to manufacture, which will come down. We need to work on the efficiency (it takes power to extract Hydrogen) and at the moment people are saying even when all is said and done we will be paying double what we pay for oil now. Oil in an incredibly cheap source of enegery. Getting the cost down and infrastructure built will take a long time. Bio is probably going to play a bigger role in the short term. The fact is we do not have enough space on Earth to grow enough crops to fuel the cars on bio deals. The second link you posted put PRODUCTION at $3.10 a gallon, so what will that end up at when it's been transported and middle men have taken their cut? People will not use bio in large numbers, until it's as cheap or cheaper.

6) Green cars have been available for many years now. But people (again in large numbers) are not buying them. Only recently has their been an interest in America, and only in very small numbers, and that’s Hybrids some with MPG's that are not much better than a normal car (The Prius gets less than 50MPG).

7) From the second link, oil sands are a very expensive way of getting oil.

8) Storing CO2, great idea. Will do nothing to reduce the cost of oil.

9) Solar, wind etc are great ways of getting power. But again people are not taking them up. The technology has been around for many years. We can make self sufficient houses, with a combinations of bore holes, solar and good low energy appliances and great insulations. We have been able to do that for decades, why haven’t we? When will we? It's not just a case of coming up with new technology, it's about changing society as well. Who is working on that? There are only 2 governments I know of who actively push people towards better built houses. But will the third World be able to afford to implement these techniques? The West will, but we have a fraction of the populations of India, China and Africa.

10) Clearly we will not end in the stone age, and most rich Western nations will just have to pay more for energy. But the third world will suffer.

The main point is there has to be a movement to swap to some of these alternative fuels sources. For decades there has not been, that has to change. How do you think that will happen? If people think oil is a infinite source of energy? Or if they are aware it’s coming to and end? Airing on the side of caution, I personally would say (knowing how people fear change) that you are better off underestimating how much we have left, that over estimating. Scaring people in to changing their life (or taxing them) is clearly the only way we will get people to change. For that reason and that reason alone it does not matter if peak oil has hit, or if it will be in 25 years time, we need to get people to change a.s.a.p.


Originally posted by barny_100
Brilliant, absolutely brilliant!

I post a link to a rational piece of writing on a subject mostly inhabited by zealots and I get a response that advocates humanity going back to the Stone Age!

As for scientists "giving up" on what exactly? New forms of energy production, more efficient versions of what we have?

Have a look at this and tell me that's the case: http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/007802.php

Vorsprung Durch Technik as some people say...

There is a Parodox to the price of Oil, with the onset of Peak Oil making Oil harder to get, then less companies will bother with it and Oil prices could actually crash! Its explained in detail in a book I read, either "The Long Emergency" or "The Part's Over", can't remember which one now.

My comment about going back to the Dark Ages is the worst case scenario. Also like Ramon points out Peak Oil is not about Oil running out, Oil will never run out.

Have a watch of this its free, normaly you'd have to pay £15 or so for the DVD. Its a 1hr 15min documentary called "The End of Surburbia".

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2215604490907671840&q=end+of+suburbia

LOL I do have a bit of a life, I even do question my own sanity somtimes :loopy: and why I give such a stuff.

Peak Oil is real, the only difficult thing is pinpointing the actual date. Even Professors and Geologists can only ever predict. One thing is true though they all now seem to think it will certainly take place before 2012, quite a few think we've hit it now. The true impact of Peak Oil takes about 2 years to show its devastating effects, so you'll only ever know who was correct when you can't switch on the lights, drive to work or even buy a loaf of bread at the suppermarket :help: .

All other Alternatives require Oil in some form or another. Baring intervention from Alien technology (about as likely as discovering those weapons of mass destruction in Iraq), the current imformation shows we have no real Alternative, just false hope. Even Scientists are giving up.

The truth of the matter is all Civilisation have collapsed because of a depletion of resources by overuse, this overuse is brought about by overpopulation, overpopulation is brought about by a current abundance of resources, then there's the big die off. We hit a dark age, before resouces build back and we over use them again. Unfortunately we'll never hit a great Civilisation like we have now, because Oil takes too long to form, so its more likely we'll be extinct before another great Oil Age.

We can make the transition at less painfull, by building lifeboats. By this I mean we should be learning to work the land manually, forget about economic growth, bring in some sort of Population reducing Policy, send out leaflets on how to turn our gardens into mini breadbaskets and a complete move to Localization, rather than Globalization.

If anyone can come up with an alternate resource to Oil, that doesn't require the use of Oil in anyway, then i'm willing to agree we can continue with econmic growth and Globalization, but until then I will continue my campaign until i've made an impact :clap: or its too late :help:

My bold
Oh really???

1) Every big oil company (Exxon, BP etc) have run full page article in the NY Times asking people to conserve. One says "it took the World 75 years to use the first 3 trillion barrels of oil, it will take us less than 25 to use the next". Isn't that bad business sense? Why would an oil company ask people to conserve, it's like Starbucks saying please drink less of our coffee.

No no. it's hugely good business sense for the oil companies to ask you to conserve - they know it will make little difference to how much the average person uses, but will allow them to increase prices "because oil is running out".

This maybe worse...

http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-malthusian-catastrophe.htm

To be fair to the Peak Oil alarmists, there can only be a finite amount of oil available.

Setting aside any climate change discussion for a moment, so long as we are using oil faster than it is created then it must be only a matter of time before it runs out/becomes uneconomical to extract.

My bold
Oh really???

A fine bump if I say so myself!

Also DaFoot isn't wrong but the idea that we'd "run out" which indicates people wouldn't move to other forms of energy beforehand is the silly bit.

It isn't just energy though, oil is used in countless other ways as the raw product for manufacturing.

It isn't just energy though, oil is used in countless other ways as the raw product for manufacturing.

Indeed but the energy usage far outweighs the others in terms of volume AFAIK so cut that and what's left goes much further.

I also imagine that the manufatoring uses could be substituted by oil from plants??

I also imagine that the manufatoring uses could be substituted by oil from plants??

No idea if technically possible, but that does introduce the problem of where to grow the plants. Have a look at the damage palm oil plantations are doing around the world.

No idea if technically possible, but that does introduce the problem of where to grow the plants. Have a look at the damage palm oil plantations are doing around the world.

Maybe its time to terraform the moon?

Terraforming the moon? Now you're talking ;)