Not sure wether many folk are interested but as i am thought id put a post up on the subject. According to the met office and many other weather related weather sites northern and eastern europe is heading towards a severe winter not seen for many years. Included in this is the uk and the meto have sent out memos to power producing companys to warn them .The main reason in laymens terms for the severe winter weather forecast isblocking to the north and east. This is basiclly high pressure over greenland and scandinavia bringing east or north east winds over europe into the uk.This scenario is called blocking and generally brings long periods of severe cold and snow. Low pressure is forced further south on the southerly jet which in turn can and does cause blizzard conditions. The winters of 62-63 and 1947 brought such set ups and the severe cold lasted 3 months.The main basis for there predictions are a negative nao and early formation of sea ice towards greenland and iceland.Be interesting to look back in a few months and see if they were correct. cheers brooksy:|

Had this discussion with a work collegue on friday, we were saying that this winter is going to be terrible due to the fact the summer has also been pretty weird, we only really had about a week or two of hot days throughout the entire summer...

but this is just great... Im stuck in the city that never stops raining and now I find out its going to be freezing, I'm gonna get snowed in, or soaked to death and then frozen to an ice cube! yay

and other good news, found out my train line is under works from December - March so I might be stuck on coaches and waiting lots... wahoooo roll on Winter! :help:

* runs off to debenhams to buy some wooly jumpers*
:thumbsup:

Originally posted by indiekidette
* runs off to debenhams to buy some wooly jumpers*
:thumbsup:

*tries to get there before you* :hihi:

That's something to look forward to then

Just remember when you see a polar bear on fargate it was on here you heard the forecast first??:clap: :clap:

will this terrible winter be as extreme as our summer heatwave? After all it was the hottest on record :loopy:

I suspect the Met Office should all shut up or resign as it must be the most incompetent profession on earth.

Have they EVER predicted any extreme weather event in this country. I remember being in the middle of a Hurricaine when I expressly remember being told that "it would be quite windy but definitely not a hurricaine".

The actuall heatwave in this country wasnt forecast by the met office but by a private company called metcheck. Secondly the hurricane you refer to the"michael fish" one was widely forecast but not by the bbc.Forecasting extreme events ie, hurricanes, tornadoes is with all the current technology still very difficult because of local variable conditions. Trends are more easier to forecast because theres scope for some error.So basically forecasters can long term looking at sea temps sea ice and pressure patterns give what should be a decent long range forecast

cool, i'll be able to build an half decent snowman!!

Originally posted by brooksy
Not sure wether many folk are interested but as i am thought id put a post up on the subject. According to the met office and many other weather related weather sites northern and eastern europe is heading towards a severe winter not seen for many years. Included in this is the uk and the meto have sent out memos to power producing companys to warn them .The main reason in laymens terms for the severe winter weather forecast isblocking to the north and east. This is basiclly high pressure over greenland and scandinavia bringing east or north east winds over europe into the uk.This scenario is called blocking and generally brings long periods of severe cold and snow. Low pressure is forced further south on the southerly jet which in turn can and does cause blizzard conditions. The winters of 62-63 and 1947 brought such set ups and the severe cold lasted 3 months.The main basis for there predictions are a negative nao and early formation of sea ice towards greenland and iceland.Be interesting to look back in a few months and see if they were correct. cheers brooksy:|

I also heard winters go in something like 12 year cyles. Which apparently is why they have been milder recently and quite soon it is due to flip back. Does anyone else know about this?

The theory you are talking about is i think to do with sunspot activity.Basiclly the more sunspots you have the less heat is given out hence the earth recieves less heat and a cooling results.This i think is at the moment and giving more evidence to the oncoming winter being colder than normal:thumbsup:

Originally posted by brooksy
According to the met office and many other weather related weather sites northern and eastern europe is heading towards a severe winter not seen for many years.

Thank goodness!

I hate the snow, rain and cold weather as much as everyone else, but with last years' mild winters, and little rainfall this summer, local reservoir levels are dropping fast.

Originally posted by Dick Dastardly
cool, i'll be able to build an half decent snowman!!

You'll probably freeze to death as soon as you step outside of the door...

If youve seen the film, "The Day AfterTomorrow" then future severe weather mighnt not be that far away. Granted the time scale in the film was silly but with the northern ice caps melting releasing billions of fresh water into the atlantic then the gulf stream shut down draws nearer every year ?.:thumbsup:

Great - a good cold snap will kill off the coffin dodgers without them bed blocking at the hospital all winter.

Afew more snacks for you then internetowl?. enjoy:clap:

I prefer my flesh , young and moist not old and hagged..:thumbsup:

Did you see the Alan Titchmarsh - British Isles a natural history prog today (UK TV History).
It was looking at predicting the weather's future taking into account weather past / tree rings & spring flowering times etc...

Global warming will cause summer deserts & Arctic winters in UK and sooner rather than later.

Sea levels will rise too with the destruction of vast polar ice-caps engulfing much of UK coastline - including London, as the sea level will be higher than the barriers & embankments.

Rock on!

I saw a report that said global warming would mean rising sea levels to the point that Doncaster would become a seaside town - now thats progress - just move all the asylum seekers out towards Scunthorpe and Goole and wash them all away.

;)

Originally posted by Don_Kiddick
Did you see the Alan Titchmarsh - British Isles a natural history prog today (UK TV History).
It was looking at predicting the weather's future taking into account weather past / tree rings & spring flowering times etc...

Global warming will cause summer deserts & Arctic winters in UK and sooner rather than later.

Sea levels will rise too with the destruction of vast polar ice-caps engulfing much of UK coastline - including London, as the sea level will be higher than the barriers & embankments.

Rock on!

ITS JUST STARTED AGAIN NOW ON CHANNELL 203 ON CABLE!
UK TV HISTORY! :thumbsup: :clap: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Global warming actually has a negative feed back loop.What that means is because of the rise in global temps the evaporation rate increases which means more rain. If you put this extra precipitation at the poles then you increase the snow amount.This in turn increases glaziation which in turn lowers world temps.Add to this the cut off of the atlantic conveyor then you have a major problem, an ice age. Desert areasalso suffer severely as the displaced rains totally miss the region adding to the already terrible drought conditions. Not a great thought but the goverments that be dont give a s---.:|

Brroksy, have you read 'State of Fear' by Michael Crichton?

It covers the topic of global warming pretty well and is a well thought out and reasoned perspective, something I come to expect from him, despite the fact he writes fiction.

Wilf

hi
i vaguely recall seeing a programme that said that ice ages came in regular cycles,about every 12,000 years- it has apparently been 13,000 years since the last one:help: :help:

regards,john.

The government must , of course , now pour billions of pounds into research on how to combat the New Ice Age .
This money will help to re-deploy all those people who were researching into how we were going to combat Global Warming .
Drat it ! I was looking forward to midnight bathing in the sea in Morecambe in March and wine produced in Wigan and Wigton.Now all my hopes are dashed. It sounds like macintoshes in Torquay and overcoats in Penzance , in August , as usual .

If anyone wants to keep an eye on this Metcheck's winter forecast will be released on 15th. Oct.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/

Originally posted by brooksy
The theory you are talking about is i think to do with sunspot activity.Basiclly the more sunspots you have the less heat is given out hence the earth recieves less heat and a cooling results.This i think is at the moment and giving more evidence to the oncoming winter being colder than normal:thumbsup:

Yes, although I believe the sunspot cycle has a periodicity of 11 years, not twelve (or 22 for a complete cycle).

does the output from the sun actually vary significantly enough to have a measurable effect here?

I thought variations in our orbit were actually more significant.

This sounds just like last years 'severe cold winter ahead' warning... wonder if it'll be true this time. ;)

The sunspots, at their height, reduce solar output by .2%

But their major 'effect' is all the electromagnetic stuff that the sun chucks out at the peak of the sunspot cycle, heating the atmosphere and causing it to expand, stripping off ozone, and knocking out satellites (or is that the 22 year magnetic cycle?)

Weirdly, when the sunspot cycle went kablooie in Elizabethan times, these were concurrent with some of the hardest winters.

It affects the earth's atmosphere, and so has a direct effect on weather, but these effects are likely to be as complex as the weather system itself, so it's hard to draw simple conclusions (more sunspots = better weather).

Metcheck is saying this in advance of their Winter Forecast -
At present, only half the snow data is available, which is why the winter forecast isn't released until October, but early indications, with the Eurasian plateau about 823,000 sq km down on the amount of snow we would normally see, means that a blocked, colder than average winter, is looking less and less likely this year.

Originally posted by robbie
will this terrible winter be as extreme as our summer heatwave? After all it was the hottest on record :loopy:

I suspect the Met Office should all shut up or resign as it must be the most incompetent profession on earth.

Have they EVER predicted any extreme weather event in this country. I remember being in the middle of a Hurricaine when I expressly remember being told that "it would be quite windy but definitely not a hurricaine".


You were in Surrey too then in '87 ???

*snap*

Originally posted by Lindseyw
You were in Surrey too then in '87 ???

*snap*

er, and Hampshire, Sussex and Kent.

nope i was only in the one place that night - in my bed in Surrey :)

Originally posted by Lindseyw
You were in Surrey too then in '87 ???

*snap*

South Essex actually. eye of the storm. very nice. I slept through it. Unfortunately at the time there seemed to be a trend for ford Capris and Cortinas being "repaired" on blocks of wood in drives. They relocated themselves to greenhouse :D . as did trees.

all my junior school windows were blown out but I was still made to go to school

"pull your hood up in case a slate falls on your head."

cheers Dad :(

I claim child abuse.

I remember the great storm of 87 - tried to get to school but had to climb through huge ancient trees that were blocking the pavements and roads; eventually got there and entered the quandrangle to see roof tiles whizzing round me - was an amazing sight but scary thinking back to it.

Hope the electricity producers keep the power going - dont fancy having many blackouts. Thankfully i've got a gas hob so can use that for heat in an emergency :thumbsup:

Just hope that the oil price doesnt rise too much as demand increases for heating fuel in the winter :P

Lots of snow ?????
Cool !!!!!!!!!!

I've always said that we can expect extreme weather, be it summers or Winters. I was dissapointed with the lack of snow last year round, so fingers crossed for this winter !

Imagine if the gulfstream disappears !

lol, best buy shares in Peter 'Storm' :)

I'm hurrying down to the Damart shop now.

:)

Just checked the metoffice website and it says that sep/oct/nov are going to be WARMER than usual.

Check here (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/index.html)

The generall feeling listening to lots of reports is that the majority of longrange models are going for a beloe average winter as regards temps. This mighnt not sound unusual but if you consider the average winter temp has been 2 0r 3 degrees above normal then if these predictions are right then it will be quite a shock to the system.

Outlook to the end of January is as follows :

The bias towards warmer than average conditions persists to the end of January over the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/monthly_forecasts/headline.html

Over parts of central and northeastern Europe, average or below average conditions become favoured by the end of January and current indications suggest this trend will continue, leading to below average temperatures for the full winter 2005/06 period (December-January-February). Probabilities continue to favour a very mixed rainfall pattern. A bias towards wetter than average conditions persists in the Balkans region and spreads to some western Mediterranean regions, including Iberia. A tendency towards drier than average conditions develops in countries bordering the Baltic Sea and over the northern UK. A forecast bias towards drier than average conditions in the eastern Mediterranean is expected to continue.

whats the betting we get drought conditions again from the dry conditions in the North quoted above ?! :P

From what I understand (and I could quite easily be wrong) the melting ice-caps will create an increase in sea levels which in turn will push the Gulf Stream further south.

The Gulf Stream helps to keep the general temperature around the UK warmer than it would be without it.

Without the Gulf Stream and the warmer air it brings, colder weather is inevitable.

However, the reason for the forecast of a colder than usual winter for 2005/06 is not connected directly to the gulf stream but to other things (sorry too complicated for me to remember) and as such we should be expecting a severe winter akin to the one of 1962/63.

To be perfectly honest, I welcome a really cold winter - kills the bugs and everything off for a start.

I do worry about global warming and the fact that there are so many countries in the world who are ignoring the impact it will have and are refusing to take any positive steps to reduce their carbon emissions. Across the world we are using more and more of the natural reserves - gas, oil, coal etc rather than developing more environmentally friendly means of power.

I think there will be a rapid accelleration in the impact of global warming and in a few years it will be too late to reverse the impact.

As for a severe winter coming up though, I am always prepared
:thumbsup: I have an 'emergency' store of tinned food and water. I need to top-up this reserve with a few other things but i'm reasonably confident that I will survive whatever happens. And if it is not as severe as forecast, the food etc will not go to waste. The only thing I need now is one of those camping stoves - just in case the gas supply freezes ...