View Full Version : Predict Sheffield Central election result here


solero
30-04-2010, 11:41
2005 result

Conservative: 3094 (10.3%)
Labour: 14950 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7895 (26.3%)
BNP: 539 (1.8%)
Green: 1808 (6%)
UKIP: 415 (1.4%)
Other: 1284 (4.3%)
Majority: 7055 (23.5%)


* no incumbent

* national swing to Liberals

* boundary changes - Burngreave has gone, Broomhill is in

* Tory vote will be squeezed still more, and could even be one of the few seats that will see less Tory votes than 2005

I think Labour will lose it by slightly less than 1000 votes.

I remember getting a flyer from the Liberals following the 1990s boundary review complaining that Nether Edge had been 'dumped' in Sheffield Central from Heeley.

bet they're not complaining now.

grafikhaus74
30-04-2010, 12:01
2010 result

Conservative: (2%)
Liberal Democrat: (2%)
BNP: (2%)
Green: (2%)
UKIP: (2%)
Other: (2%)
Baboon wearing a red rosette: (88%)

Br8inend
30-04-2010, 12:05
I don't think joeputupwithanythinpublic even know who the candidates are....... This election is all about brown,Clegg, cam. Its all to do with the policy of dumbing us down to the level of the average American .

purdyamos
30-04-2010, 12:11
I don't think anyone in Central can be in any doubt of who the Lib Dem candidate is, so far he's produced more flyers than the RAF. :hihi:

Unregistered
30-04-2010, 12:21
All previous Labour voters that I know don't want to see their vote wasted.

They agree with Nick and they're voting LibDems.
.
.
.

Longcol
30-04-2010, 12:21
I don't think anyone in Central can be in any doubt of who the Lib Dem candidate is, so far he's produced more flyers than the RAF. :hihi:

Yes - I keep getting spam e-mail from him as well.

hitman2010
30-04-2010, 12:22
Sheffield central is unlike most seats in that is has a high ethnic and student population,the greens ought to do well.

Longcol
30-04-2010, 12:25
Sheffield central is unlike most seats in that is has a high ethnic and student population,the greens ought to do well.

What evidence is there that BME voters vote Green? And how many of the students are registered to vote in Sheffield?

biotechpete
30-04-2010, 12:48
With Broomhill and Walkley included, the LibDem vote is bound to increase (on the basis that all 6 councillors in these wards are LibDem). Add on the Nick factor and I can see a convincing win for the LibDems, even if its just to get Labour out.

solero
30-04-2010, 13:10
the boundary changes are significant. Caborn standing down is also probably worth 1000 votes alone.

before Clegg's boost in the polls I thought Labour would hang on, maybe by about 2,000. But not now.

Longcol
30-04-2010, 13:10
Walkley has tended to vote Lib Dem in local elections and Labour at General Elections.

slimsid2000
30-04-2010, 13:38
I predict a Conservative majority of 9,763

biotechpete
30-04-2010, 14:04
I predict a Conservative majority of 9,763

We can but dream that all those Labour voters will finally come to their senses.

biotechpete
30-04-2010, 14:06
Walkley has tended to vote Lib Dem in local elections and Labour at General Elections.

But there has been a significant shift to young professionals in the area over the past 5 years who IMHO would be less likely to vote Labour than the older generation who have moved on.

DragonofAna
30-04-2010, 14:07
I predict a conservative majority of 17.4

Bet I'm right as well. It will be something point something.

Longcol
30-04-2010, 14:13
But there has been a significant shift to young professionals in the area over the past 5 years who IMHO would be less likely to vote Labour than the older generation who have moved on.

Housing market in Walkley has been pretty stagnant for the last 3 years - there was a greater demographic change prior to 2005 - young professionals and buy to let.

donuticus
30-04-2010, 14:21
2010 result

Conservative: (2%)
Liberal Democrat: (2%)
BNP: (2%)
Green: (2%)
UKIP: (2%)
Other: (2%)
Baboon wearing a red rosette: (88%)

Sadly this may be bang on the money.

I think Labour will hold the seat but their majority may be down to a few hundred.

libuse
30-04-2010, 14:28
Sadly this may be bang on the money.

I think Labour will hold the seat but their majority may be down to a few hundred.

I don't think so - the amount of campaigning that Scriven has done is phenomenal. He's presumably targeted key parts of the constituency as I'm sure his campaign budget wouldn't run to the intensity of leafleting we've been on the receiving end of across the constituency as a whole, but I think his efforts, along with the boundary changes, might pay off.

donuticus
30-04-2010, 14:42
I don't think so - the amount of campaigning that Scriven has done is phenomenal. He's presumably targeted key parts of the constituency as I'm sure his campaign budget wouldn't run to the intensity of leafleting we've been on the receiving end of across the constituency as a whole, but I think his efforts, along with the boundary changes, might pay off.

I'm in central myself and I have to agree. The sheer volume of election leafleting that I have received from Paul is astounding. I hadn't realised Richard Caborn was not standing again. I have no doubt the result will be close but I feel that Labour may still edge it.

Sadly.