Was looking at this BBC report (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4550197.stm). Looking at the economic indicators, it seems that the housing market is slowing, high street spending falling, credit debt soaring, unemployment rising, number of UK bankruptcies rising, inflation growing, manufacturing output falling........

There doesn't seem to be anything positive happening.

Does all this indicate that we are heading for a recession? What does it mean in real terms? Is it having any impact on your day to day living?

Originally posted by jackieb
uptcies rising, inflation growing, manufacturing output falling........

There doesn't seem to be anything positive happening.

Does all this indicate that we are heading for a recession? What does it mean in real terms? Is it having any impact on your day to day living?

YES! It means that I am that much nearer to selling my house, moving to Spain and opening an animal sanctuary.

<-----thinks might have Monday morning blues....:(

How could it be? Labour are so economically (in)competant. :hihi:

When was the last recession, who was in charge then ?

Originally posted by jackieb
Was looking at this BBC report (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4550197.stm). Looking at the economic indicators, it seems that the housing market is slowing, high street spending falling, credit debt soaring, unemployment rising, number of UK bankruptcies rising, inflation growing, manufacturing output falling........

There doesn't seem to be anything positive happening.

Does all this indicate that we are heading for a recession? What does it mean in real terms? Is it having any impact on your day to day living?

housing market slowing - good thing.
high street spending slowing - good thing.
credit debt soaring - really, borrowing is already at an all time high, bad thing.
unemployment rising - questionable, based on 1 quarters figures, need at least another quarter to see if this is a trend.
banruptcies - bad thing
inflation - still extremely low, small rise, nothing to worry about.
manufacturing output - bad thing.

overall a reasonably mixed picture i'd say. Not time to head for the bunker in the hills yet...

It's what the financial pundits had forecast.

Originally posted by nick2
When was the last recession, who was in charge then ?
was it not the late 80's early 90's? the conservatories were in charge and i think thatcher? correct me if i am wrong as i was only about 10 then!

Originally posted by jackieb
Is it having any impact on your day to day living?

I'm self employed, and my work relies to a certain extent on people moving house.
All I know is the last five months are the worst I have had in the last six years.
It does seem to be picking up though in the last couple of weeks......

Did the last recession not have something to do with the conservatives joining/pulling out of some kind of European malarky and the control of interest rates by the BOE rather than the politicians? I seem to remember John Major stating on a program that it was they who were responsible for an end to the boom/bust type thing.

In the current state of play I seem to be doing ok, I have minimal debt and some savings so interest rate hikes don't affect me much as I also don't have a mortgage. We'll see how the future pans out though ......... anything can happen in the next half hour.

The official definition of recession is the ecomony contracting for two consecutive quarters. Given that the UK economy grew 0.6% in the first quarter of this year, (2.8% year on year), its very doubtful whether we will go into recession this year.

The last recession in the UK economy was in 1991. Many companies in the late 80s had borrowed heavily to fund expansion. John Major and his then chancellor decided let the exchange rate of the Pound shadow the ERM (the "snake" type thing that was the forerunner for the Euro). However, they did not reckon on some currency speculators which resulted in them having to drastically raise interest rates to strengthen the value of the pound. They abandoned the policy but theThis immediately passed on the cost of borrowing to companies causing them to cut back drastically and put the whole economy into recession.

The chances of the same sort of thing being repeated as very slim. The pound no longer shadows the Euro, the interest rates are now controlled by the Bank of England and not the government. The only thing that could possibly put the economy into recession is similar to what happened in Japan a few years ago when inflation contracted and consumer confidence just disappeared. Somehow, I think UK women like shopping too much!!! ........

Well I don't know about everybody else, but I am definitley in recession.
My credit borrowing is up and my high street spending is sadly lacking.

How come I always end up having spent my wage half way through the month? I wish I could leave one month and step into the next with a bit of change left over.