If yes, how long will it take
If no, why not.

Some already class China as a superpower now. With the capabilities to lauch a 7 million man army at any given time and not to mention the rocket technology sold to them by the US under Clinton.

I think they can and will quite soon become a superpower in around 20 years.

What will they be like as a superpower. Human rights still very bad but I think better than it was. China is continuing to grow economically at a huge rate and if the current patterns continue they will catch up with the UK/France/Japan/Germany relatively soon and then make it upto the American huge economy.

American industry is shrinking and jobs are being lost, while Chinas is expanding hugely with a workforce of over a billion.

Chinese citys are now getting up to basic standards although the countryside is still very poor.

Naturally to be a superpower they would have to expand there navy/airforce/army and invest in designing top of the range weapons as I doubt they will be able to import.

What would China as a superpower mean for the world.
Their record in Tibet is appalling and Taiwan is not yet totally free from them.

On the plus side if they do continue to let there economy grow surley it will mean their population would become more tolerant and open to western ideas than was the case for the cold war.

Will Chinas emergence falter and they then revert back to an isolationist approach that they undertook for so long.

Realistically, I do not think they will ever catch America because, as quick as they grow the American economy will grow too and the sheer scale of multi billion dollar industries in America will mean it would be very hard to catch up, but I do see china outstripping Japan in the next 20 years if they keep on modernising.

Will China invest billions in its nukes? Hopefully not.
Russia showed how doing this drains the economy.

What would be the affect on America if China does become economically a rival? Could it possibly have a good effect if China and America became equal trading partners as the benefits could/should filter down to many countries.

I think that China's economic fortunes may actually be a good thing in the long term. It could lead them down the road to democracy perhaps?
Alternatively, if you want the nightmare scenario, there is a book called "Invasion" by Eric Harry (I think it was Eric), which has China gradually taking over the world. It does read like pro American propaganda though...

Several factors have not been mentioned
1 Taiwan is China. The fact that Chiang Kai Shek retreated there in 1949 stealing many national treasures
2 There is also a case to support the fact that many centuries ago Tibet was subservient to the Chinese emperor too
China still has thousands of acres unexplored with tremendous prospects for minerals and oil. It has a workforceof millions. Most Chinese people can now afford a bike and a television set... a fact that could not have been imagined ten years ago.
The U.S did give them some information with regard to space exploration, but they have themselves put the technology together. This from a nation whose small industrial base was taken back to Japan by the retreating Japanese armies in 1945.
They are in the process od damming the Yangtse river to rpoduce millions of kilowatts of power, and also to make a previously dangerous river navigable through the five gorges to Chongqing.
In the big picture, now that we no longer have the Soviet Union to counterbalance the Americans, it can only be for the futherance of world security that a new world power should develop
The introduction of limited capitalism by Deng Xiao Ping and his sucessors has enabled the country to compete on the world markey as never before. With regard to human rights, it needs an iron hand in a velvet glove to control the aspirations of 1500 millio people. They cannot overnight be given the freedoms which we take for granted. As Deng said " It doesn't matter what colour the cat is as long as it catches mice" when asked why some private capital was being allowed to enter the national economy.

..................................

Originally posted by spook1210
i would argue that any nation with a nuclear capability is a superpower to some extent?
definitely.

China, France, Britain, Russia, USA - UN Security council. France and Britain both with independent nuclear 'deterrents'., but punching above their weight.

But China lacks one thing - an ocean going navy. It has nothing resembling a Carrier Group, which is perhaps one of the most useful strategic weapons there is.

However, with an economy controlled by the Red Army, and China's export manufacturing trade with an astonishing variety of nations skyrocketing, they are well geared to profit from our desire for toys, consumer electronics and computer chips.

All this wonderful free trade will flow freely into the pockets of the Red Army, which is more a gigantic hierarchy of civil servants and attendant privileges than a fighting force.

It should have enough for a few carrier groups in no time. Then it can finally contest the USA over the pacific oil reserves supposed under places like the Spratley Islands. Then again, maybe not.

Chinese state policy and government is a complete mystery to me. But I liked (have I said this before somewhere) Chairman Mao's response to the question what he thought of the French Revolution, and he is reputed to have said:
"It is too early to tell".

Things like that, and Hong Kong and Macao, make me think that the Chinese government has always played a very long game.

So she is a superpower, no question.

No superpower has ever ruled indefinitely and there have been many.

Romans lasted for nealy 600 years but they fell in the end and something like individual states wanting independence could lead to the break up of America.

In the UKs case it was a war that drained all our resources and America took our place.
UKs turn as a superpower lasted 130 years approx.

I think that America will continue to be a superpower for some considerable time long after my lifetime. Although in the history of the world Americas reign will be a small blip in time. Of course all these answers are unprovable except history has shown us this will be the case.

I think the middle east will lose its importance in around 50 years time when oil has run out, and they will play a smaller role on the world stage.

I went on holiday to China four years ago. The cities showed on the surface that they had lots of money and technology, but there was a great divide between those with money and those without. There were still many shanty towns where families shared facilities and sanitation was dire.

Many People were walking the streets in pyjamas or barefoot.

When you get out of the cities, poverty is even more rife. I saw people eating off the street and selling anything they could get their hands on. Crime is high in places.

It seems sad that money can be piled into getting a Chinaman into space, where that money ought to have been spent helping regenerate the poorer areas.

They may seem to be able to become a superpower, but I think this is all on the surface - their people need help to develop.

On a lighter note, the people seemed happy and were all very friendly and curious about the Western world. They were learning how to dance Western dances when I took a walk through a park in Beijing early one morning and were keen to talk to me (and touch my blonde hair).....it seems the People have been highly sheltered from the West.

China had an earthquake this morning. I hope they recover from it quickly.

Originally posted by riddo7up

2 There is also a case to support the fact that many centuries ago Tibet was subservient to the Chinese emperor too
.

That may be so, but it gives them absolutely no right to invade the country centuries later, and oppress it for over 50 years. since the People's Republic of China invaded, over a million have been killed as a direct result, thousands of Buddhist monasteries have been purposefully destroyed, and despite what the Chinese government say, the Tibetan people have NOT been given cultural autonomy.

Buddhist Monks frequently go missing, and are incarcerated, tortured, and sometimes killed for merely speaking out against the occupation, and trying to retain their culture.

I'd like to point you to some more information on the subject, if anyone is interested:

http://www.freetibet.org/info/key_issues.html

China - The sleeping giant!

Originally posted by Lickszz
I think the middle east will lose its importance in around 50 years time when oil has run out, and they will play a smaller role on the world stage.

Interesting point, but IMO the Middle East will continue to play a major role after all the oil has gone.

There's religious tension, dwindling water resources, nuclear proliferation...

Somthing has always intrigued me about the China / Tibet issue ...

China will not disappoint the world...

China is already a superpower - it has wide reaching power and influence and works in places where the usual superpower(s) can't seem to touch. Whether it be through being friendly with dictatorships and unstable countries to get resources or exploiting opportunities where America has made an enemy. China will do anything (like most countries) to gain and it's punching now with the big boys.

The question is how long it can work before it starts to have the problems of large nations - fragmentation and the struggle to force many sub-nations and peoples to live as one. Only time will tell.

Several factors have not been mentioned
1 Taiwan is China. The fact that Chiang Kai Shek retreated there in 1949 stealing many national treasures
2 There is also a case to support the fact that many centuries ago Tibet was subservient to the Chinese emperor too


are you actually trying to justify chinas human rights record?

Maybe you think the Irish should bow to imperial British rule as they were once subservient to the british crown?

My kids will be learning Chinese for sure.

If China is going to increase in power (along with India and Brazil), then who will be loosing 'power' ?

Z

You've got to give them credit.... China is probably one of the only countries in the world that could peddle out the cheapest, crappest quality garbage possible and people all around the world buy it and think its a bargain!

Yes without a doubt. 10 years tops.

Buy gold now as the price will surge soon. And keep soaring.

Don't forget - this tip came free from Kiddick's Predictions

You know I'm right :thumbsup:

From BBC, some of you might find it interesting

India struggles to catch China

By Rupert Wingfield-Hayes
BBC News, Delhi and Beijing

The rapid growth of the Indian and Chinese economies have transformed the two countries in recent years. But this prosperity has also brought other problems.


Heavy investment has turned Beijing into a modern city
I think it was in 2003, that the world suddenly woke up to China.

I am not sure what caused it to happen, what particular event or news story. I just remembered the phone in the BBC's Beijing Bureau started ringing and it has not stopped since.

Well now it is happening again and this time it is not China, it is India.

Every time you turn on the television or pick up a magazine, it is no longer the rise of China, it is now the rise of China and India.

The desire to make comparisons is understandable. Both have more than a billion people. Both are growing at 10% a year.


Delhi is an overwhelming experience. It is as if all of humanity has been squeezed into one city

There are, I suspect, many who are hoping that India, with its freedom and democracy, will win this new race to become the next economic super power. I am not so sure.

I have spent the last eight years living in Beijing, and only four days in Delhi, so comparisons are difficult.

But the few days I recently spent in India made me look at China in a new light.


'Shocking experience'


Over 15 million people live in Delhi
Delhi is an overwhelming experience. It is as if all of humanity has been squeezed into one city.

The streets groan under the weight of people. The air is filled with deafening noise and sumptuous smells.

Switch on the television and it is the same.

Between channels blasting out voluptuous Bollywood love stories and pop videos, an endless stream of news channels dissect the latest political scandals, and debauched lifestyles of the rich and famous.

Coming from China it is an almost shocking experience.

But after the initial delight at being in an open society, I started to notice other things.

Foreign tourists stared in bewilderment; locals with the resigned look of those used to waiting

The hotel was expensive and bad. In my room I searched for a high speed internet connection, a standard feature in any hotel in China. There was not one.

Then with the night-time temperature still well above 30C (86F) the power went out.

I lay for hours soaked in sweat trying, and failing, to get back to sleep and wishing I was back in Beijing where the lights never go out.

But getting back would not be easy.

Passenger queues

I looked at my plane ticket. Departure time 0315. Surely that could not be right.

I called the front desk. "That's correct sir," he said, "the airport is too small so many flights from Delhi leave in the middle of the night."

He was not joking.

My taxi struggled along the Jaipur road towards the airport.

The two-lane road was clogged by an endless convoy of lorries. Finally I arrived at Indira Gandhi International airport. Despite the hour it was teeming with people.

The queues snaked around the airport and back to where they had started.

Foreign tourists stared in bewilderment. Locals with the resigned look of those used to waiting.

I could not help feeling a sense of relief at being back in a country where things work

"Is it always like this?" I asked a man in the queue ahead of me.

"Pretty much," he sighed.

I was finally shepherded aboard the flight to Shanghai.

Next to me sat a friendly looking Indian man in shorts and running shoes.

"Is this your first trip to China?" he asked me.

"No," I replied, "I live there."

"Really," he said, his interest piqued, "what should I expect?"

"I think," I said, "you should expect to be surprised."

Jaw dropping

Six hours later, our plane taxied to a halt in front of the soaring glass and steel of Shanghai's Pudong International Airport.



In Delhi I had been shocked to see thousands of people sleeping rough on the streets every night, nothing but the few rags they slept in to call their own

As we emerged into the cool silence of the ultra-modern terminal, my new companion's jaw slid towards his belly button.

"I was not expecting this," he said, his eyes wide in wonder. "Oh no, I definitely was not expecting this".

I also found myself looking at China afresh.

Later that day as I drove home from Beijing airport along the smooth six-lane highway I could not help feeling a sense of relief at being back in a country where things work.

And it was not just the airports and roads.

Driving through a village on the edge of Beijing I was struck by how well everyone was dressed.

In Delhi, I had been shocked to see thousands of people sleeping rough on the streets every night, nothing but the few rags they slept in to call their own. Even deep in China's countryside that is not something you will see.

In Delhi I had been told of the wonders of India's new economy, of the tens of thousands of bright young graduates churning out the world's latest computer software.

I thought of China's new economy, of the tens of millions of rural migrants who slave away in factories, making everything from plimsolls to plasma televisions.

And of the same rural migrants, heading home to their villages at Chinese New Year festival loaded down with gifts, their pockets stuffed full of cash.

China is not a free society, and it has immense problems. But its successes should not be underestimated.

They are ones that India, even with its open and democratic society, is still far from matching.