Oh deary me, what will UEFA say about this I wonder!!

http://forums.liverpoolecho.co.uk/vi...=asc&sta rt=0

Link not working for me. :(

http://forums.liverpoolecho.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=33755&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

try now...

Wonder what the odds would be for correctly guessing the draw? :suspect:

EUFA would have been dreading all four English clubs being kept apart and a possible all English semi draw.

Wonder what the odds would be for correctly guessing the draw?


40,319/1.

40,319/1.

I realise that's telling you only one thing, but the message was too short so I decided to tell you twice.

How did you work that out? I got 105 to 1

How did you work that out? I got 105 to 1

I don't know which order the names actually came out, but here's an example.

Odds of Liverpool being drawn out 1st: 1 in 8.
... of Arsenal second: 1 in 7 ('Pool not there any more)
... of Chelsea third: 1 in 6. (2 balls gone already)
... of Fenerbahce fourth: 1 in 5 (as above)
... of Barcelona fifth: 1 in 4.
... of Schalke sixth: 1 in 3.
... of Man Utd seventh: 1 in 2.
... of Roma last: certainty, there's only one ball left now.

8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 40,320.

There are many combinations that would lead to the same four pairs, so the odds of these particular teams facing each other are a lot less. But the odds of correctly predicting the exact order that all eight balls appear, are 40,319/1.

If the draw is random, then the order isn't important. As you say, we can't compare with the predicted order because we don't know what either order was.

8 left - So any ball's OK for the first draw - 1 in 1
7 left - Only one of the remaining 7 will do - 1 in 7
6 left - Any remaining ball - 1 in 1
5 left - only one will do - 1 in 5
4 left - Any - 1 in 1
3 left - only 1 - 1 in 3
2 left - doesn't matter - 1 in 1
1 left - doesn't matter - 1 in 1

7 x 5 x 3 = 105. therefore odds are 1 in 105

Interesting story though.

If the draw is random, then the order isn't important.

If you refer to the odds of correctly guessing who will play whom, then yes, you're absolutely right.

However, the guy who claimed he'd heard the draw was rigged not only got that right, but he gave all the teams in the exact order they came out of the box. That's what gives his story rather more credence - a mere 104/1 shot could just be coincidence. Well, a 40,319/1 shot could be coincidence, but given that all bookies were refusing to take bets, it smells distinctly fishy.

There are 56 possible combinations of the draw as regards who plays who (home or away).

As to the order they come out in, Heysey is correct in that there are 40,320 possible combinations.

However - going back to the original link in the Liverpool Press - the poster got the wrong home side in two of the three games he predicted - and ignored Shalke / Barca in the order of the draw - so would be fair to say he was only really guessing from the "short list" of 56. And I bet the bookies in Liverpool weren't taking bets against Liverpool playing another English side - even money chance but the scousers would have wanted 8/1.

The striking thing for me here is that this was a new topic on one particular forum posted some 90 minutes before the actual draw. How many other 'speculative' posts were made on forums around the world that got the draw wrong?

The striking thing for me here is that this was a new topic on one particular forum posted some 90 minutes before the actual draw. How many other 'speculative' posts were made on forums around the world that got the draw wrong?

Sorry but I can't find the source - but this geezer has made 3,000 "predictions" to the Liverpool Echo in the last year!

Sods law says he'll get one right.

Sorry but I can't find the source - but this geezer has made 3,000 "predictions" to the Liverpool Echo in the last year!

Sods law says he'll get one right.

I don't know where you get your info from stating this forummer has made all these predictions.

However he only made one prediction concerning this draw though, which seems to be accurate in stating the teams to play each other. This was a full hour and a half before the draw.
The only real question for computer buffs it seem is how did he rig it?
No one seems to be concerned that he may actually be on to a real problem wih the credibility of the draw.

However he only made one prediction concerning this draw though, which seems to be accurate in stating the teams to play each other. This was a full hour and a half before the draw.
The only real question for computer buffs it seem is how did he rig it?


If the info about not getting the exact draw order is correct, then he's only hit on a 40-1 or so coincidence, and not a 40,000-1 freak. There is no good reason to assume a 40-1 coincidence is anything other than exactly that.

In fact, a 40,000-1 coincidence isn't all that remarkable if thousands of predictions are being made.Random jumbles of letters thrown together will occasionally make words, but that doesn't prove anything. And, as pointed out above, how many people on how many forums claimed they "knew" the draw in advance, but turned out to be wrong? We do not know. Those posts haven't been brought to widespread prominence - "Incorrect Prediction of UEFA Draw" is hardly interesting :hihi:

The bit that still needs explaining - if true - is why bookies were all refusing to take bets on the draw outcome. That's the part that smelt fishy, and still does.