View Full Version : The Birthday paradox - testing a maths theorem online


CockneyMafia
04-01-2008, 23:07
Right. Simple experiment.

I want the first 22 posters after me to write down their birthday (e.g. March 1st)

No spoilers please. All will be explained.

My birthday is September 2nd.

redrobbo
04-01-2008, 23:09
April 18 ......

Dozy
04-01-2008, 23:11
April 14 .......

and I'm sure I'm going to regret this for some reason :hihi:

Draggletail
04-01-2008, 23:12
April 15th (nowt that can't be seen in my forum profile) ;)

Swan_Vesta
04-01-2008, 23:15
Jan 12th ... My 31st will be ushered in with a bowl of noodles and a tin of tuna (I'm on nights :( )


Birthday meal on my rest day though :D WOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Halibut
04-01-2008, 23:16
June 7th..........

Titian
04-01-2008, 23:23
January 26th

weenireeni
04-01-2008, 23:26
July 22nd

*wonders what this is all about!*

Siān
04-01-2008, 23:28
July 22nd

*wonders what this is all about!*

It's v intriguing weenirenni! So much so I'm going to have to help with this (11th January)

Mod_Man
04-01-2008, 23:35
April 22nd. Come on Mike do tell.

*Banjo*
04-01-2008, 23:36
September 1st

Jabberwocky
04-01-2008, 23:41
December 13th

Phanerothyme
05-01-2008, 00:12
16th January

mort
05-01-2008, 00:14
1st febuary

rubydazzler
05-01-2008, 00:57
12 January

nanrobbo
05-01-2008, 01:13
5th April..............

Swan_Vesta
05-01-2008, 01:14
12 January

SNAP baby ........ Cosmically aligned :D

medusa
05-01-2008, 01:17
There we go- the theorem works for the Sheffield Forum random sample anyway.

Post 18 and we already have 2 people who share a birthday.

elora*
05-01-2008, 07:26
4th September :)

Grim Reaper
05-01-2008, 07:51
Feb 3rd...........

Joanl
05-01-2008, 08:04
March 20th................

CockneyMafia
05-01-2008, 08:10
There we go- the theorem works for the Sheffield Forum random sample anyway.

Post 18 and we already have 2 people who share a birthday.

Indeed....Here is the explanation.

Take the following question:

"How many people do you need in a room at a party before the odds are good ( i.e. greater than 50%) that at least two of them share a birthday?" The answer is not as it seems....

The 'birthday paradox' problem states that if you put 23 (or more) randomly selected people in a room, there is more than a 50% chance that at least 2 people will share the same birthday. The solution is not a paradox in the logical sense, it just contradicts our intuition.

This seems surprising because we are used to comparing our particular birthdays with others and only rarely finding a perfect match. The probability of any two individuals having the same birthday is just 1/365. Even if you were to ask 20 people, the probability of finding someone with your birthday is still less than 1/20. But the odds improve dramatically when a group of people ask each other about their birthdays because then there are many more opportunities for a match-up. One way to calculate the probability of a birthday match is to count the pairs of people involved. In a room of 23 people, there are (23 × 22)/2, or 253, possible pairs. Each pair has a probability of success of 1/365 = 0.00274 (0.274%), and thus a probability of failure of (1 - 0.00274) = 0.99726 (99.726%). The probability of no match among any of the pairs of people is 0.99726 to the 253th power, which is 0.499 (49.9%). So the probability of a successful match is (1 - 0.499), or slightly better than evens. With 42 people, the probability of a birthday match climbs to 90%.

Good eh? (well, I thought it was pretty neat)

The only reason I stumbled across this little gem was because I was researching cryptographic attacks on 448 bit encryption keys. No wonder I don't have a girlfriend.

medusa
05-01-2008, 10:39
I saw this one explained recently on a TV programme, but I can't remember which one (I know, I watch really exciting TV programmes, don't I?)

Joanl
05-01-2008, 11:07
If my daughter had been born 7 hours earlier, she would have been born on MY birthday.
If my son would have been born in England instead of Singapore which was 8 hours ahead, he would have been born on my Grandmothers birthday.
My brother, was born on our Mothers birthday.:)

Is that anything like what you're saying?

Ms Macbeth
05-01-2008, 14:15
May 16th. I seem to be the first one with a May birthday. Does that mean Taureans are less likely to post on threads with maths in the title? :roll:

julado
05-01-2008, 22:26
If my daughter had been born 7 hours earlier, she would have been born on MY birthday.
If my son would have been born in England instead of Singapore which was 8 hours ahead, he would have been born on my Grandmothers birthday.
My brother, was born on our Mothers birthday.:)

Is that anything like what you're saying?

I was born on MY birthday :hihi:

Apologies....as the section says....I'm bored!

Titian
06-01-2008, 17:14
I conceived my first child exactly 50 years to the day that my grandmother conceived my mother, and at exactly the same age.

Not really a birthday paradox, but still... I find it fascinating.

JoeP
06-01-2008, 17:16
OK - I know we're outside the first 22, but mine is 22nd July, like Weenireeni

cressida
06-01-2008, 17:25
mine is 13th February like Sharpsinger

pippadoll
06-01-2008, 18:09
I am the first poster with a birthday in August. It is weird we have a number of matches, but not all months covered. Too bizarre. Thanks for the post MB it was very interesting.