View Full Version : The Birthday paradox - testing a maths theorem online
CockneyMafia 04-01-2008, 23:07 Right. Simple experiment.
I want the first 22 posters after me to write down their birthday (e.g. March 1st)
No spoilers please. All will be explained.
My birthday is September 2nd.
redrobbo 04-01-2008, 23:09 April 18 ......
April 14 .......
and I'm sure I'm going to regret this for some reason :hihi:
Draggletail 04-01-2008, 23:12 April 15th (nowt that can't be seen in my forum profile) ;)
Swan_Vesta 04-01-2008, 23:15 Jan 12th ... My 31st will be ushered in with a bowl of noodles and a tin of tuna (I'm on nights :( )
Birthday meal on my rest day though :D WOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
weenireeni 04-01-2008, 23:26 July 22nd
*wonders what this is all about!*
July 22nd
*wonders what this is all about!*
It's v intriguing weenirenni! So much so I'm going to have to help with this (11th January)
April 22nd. Come on Mike do tell.
Jabberwocky 04-01-2008, 23:41 December 13th
Phanerothyme 05-01-2008, 00:12 16th January
rubydazzler 05-01-2008, 00:57 12 January
nanrobbo 05-01-2008, 01:13 5th April..............
Swan_Vesta 05-01-2008, 01:14 12 January
SNAP baby ........ Cosmically aligned :D
There we go- the theorem works for the Sheffield Forum random sample anyway.
Post 18 and we already have 2 people who share a birthday.
Grim Reaper 05-01-2008, 07:51 Feb 3rd...........
March 20th................
CockneyMafia 05-01-2008, 08:10 There we go- the theorem works for the Sheffield Forum random sample anyway.
Post 18 and we already have 2 people who share a birthday.
Indeed....Here is the explanation.
Take the following question:
"How many people do you need in a room at a party before the odds are good ( i.e. greater than 50%) that at least two of them share a birthday?" The answer is not as it seems....
The 'birthday paradox' problem states that if you put 23 (or more) randomly selected people in a room, there is more than a 50% chance that at least 2 people will share the same birthday. The solution is not a paradox in the logical sense, it just contradicts our intuition.
This seems surprising because we are used to comparing our particular birthdays with others and only rarely finding a perfect match. The probability of any two individuals having the same birthday is just 1/365. Even if you were to ask 20 people, the probability of finding someone with your birthday is still less than 1/20. But the odds improve dramatically when a group of people ask each other about their birthdays because then there are many more opportunities for a match-up. One way to calculate the probability of a birthday match is to count the pairs of people involved. In a room of 23 people, there are (23 × 22)/2, or 253, possible pairs. Each pair has a probability of success of 1/365 = 0.00274 (0.274%), and thus a probability of failure of (1 - 0.00274) = 0.99726 (99.726%). The probability of no match among any of the pairs of people is 0.99726 to the 253th power, which is 0.499 (49.9%). So the probability of a successful match is (1 - 0.499), or slightly better than evens. With 42 people, the probability of a birthday match climbs to 90%.
Good eh? (well, I thought it was pretty neat)
The only reason I stumbled across this little gem was because I was researching cryptographic attacks on 448 bit encryption keys. No wonder I don't have a girlfriend.
I saw this one explained recently on a TV programme, but I can't remember which one (I know, I watch really exciting TV programmes, don't I?)
If my daughter had been born 7 hours earlier, she would have been born on MY birthday.
If my son would have been born in England instead of Singapore which was 8 hours ahead, he would have been born on my Grandmothers birthday.
My brother, was born on our Mothers birthday.:)
Is that anything like what you're saying?
Ms Macbeth 05-01-2008, 14:15 May 16th. I seem to be the first one with a May birthday. Does that mean Taureans are less likely to post on threads with maths in the title? :roll:
If my daughter had been born 7 hours earlier, she would have been born on MY birthday.
If my son would have been born in England instead of Singapore which was 8 hours ahead, he would have been born on my Grandmothers birthday.
My brother, was born on our Mothers birthday.:)
Is that anything like what you're saying?
I was born on MY birthday :hihi:
Apologies....as the section says....I'm bored!
I conceived my first child exactly 50 years to the day that my grandmother conceived my mother, and at exactly the same age.
Not really a birthday paradox, but still... I find it fascinating.
OK - I know we're outside the first 22, but mine is 22nd July, like Weenireeni
cressida 06-01-2008, 17:25 mine is 13th February like Sharpsinger
pippadoll 06-01-2008, 18:09 I am the first poster with a birthday in August. It is weird we have a number of matches, but not all months covered. Too bizarre. Thanks for the post MB it was very interesting.
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